PrairieHunter
Well-known member
Were they in units that were 100% draw last year?
So far unit 2 and unit 9 have the most people who can't understand what happened as both were 100% last year.
Kansas Deer 2018
- Thread starter Mudranger1
- Start date
Were they in units that were 100% draw last year?
So far unit 2 and unit 9 have the most people who can't understand what happened as both were 100% last year.
Chad Gus
Well-known member
I know one group was unit 2, as for the other one in not sure, think they hunt in 15
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
Interesting. 15 should have been a slam dunk with 1405 tags last year and 1277 1st choice apps.
They also have had a major issue this year with the license portion which was required for some people but not for others that has created a lot of confusion. Now they are trying to refund those who bought licenses but did not draw deer tags.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
The KDWP facebook page refuses to answer my question if there was a problem withe the 2018 draw and they have always been good about answering. So I decided to call. Spent 20 minutes on hold before getting through to Cory. He acted like everything was fine with the 2018 draw but when I mentioned the license issue he started getting evasive and ultimately kept trying to explain that second and thirds choice apps could have an effect on first choice applicants getting a tag, which caused my jaw to hit the floor as that is a direct contradiction to the answer I was given earlier but the KDWP facebook page.
"The Kansas nonresident deer draw is a random computer draw, drawing applicants with preference points first. If you did not draw, that means that there were more applications than permits allotted. It's not uncommon for demand to change from year to year. If you purchased a hunting license when you applied and do not plan on using it, you can mail the license back to: KDWPT, Licensing Section, 512 SE 25th Ave., Pratt, KS 67124 for a refund."
I asked him for further explanation and he then said he was more of a fishing guy and didn't know specifics on the deer draw.
In the end I don't know what the heck is going on down there as it's been months since the draw and they refuse to post the 2018 numbers. When asked they always say it's going to be a few more weeks. There are over a dozen guys just on 3 forums who had unit 2, 9, or 15 as first choice and did not draw for some reason even though they were 100% last year. And we know there was an issue with requiring a hunting license this year and that an issue in 2016 resulted in 3,200 extra deer tags being given. Everyone just wants an explanation and to see the numbers. Hopefully they will do so shortly.
"The Kansas nonresident deer draw is a random computer draw, drawing applicants with preference points first. If you did not draw, that means that there were more applications than permits allotted. It's not uncommon for demand to change from year to year. If you purchased a hunting license when you applied and do not plan on using it, you can mail the license back to: KDWPT, Licensing Section, 512 SE 25th Ave., Pratt, KS 67124 for a refund."
I asked him for further explanation and he then said he was more of a fishing guy and didn't know specifics on the deer draw.
In the end I don't know what the heck is going on down there as it's been months since the draw and they refuse to post the 2018 numbers. When asked they always say it's going to be a few more weeks. There are over a dozen guys just on 3 forums who had unit 2, 9, or 15 as first choice and did not draw for some reason even though they were 100% last year. And we know there was an issue with requiring a hunting license this year and that an issue in 2016 resulted in 3,200 extra deer tags being given. Everyone just wants an explanation and to see the numbers. Hopefully they will do so shortly.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
It was frustrating not drawing but at this point I think these folks just want an explanation as to what happened. I'm sure Ahsersdad would love to be able to explain to his kids why only 1 drew a tag for example. Maybe there were 400+ extra first choice apps in 2, 9, and 15 from last year to this year which changed the odds from 100% to 95%. And then maybe there were a few of us with really bad luck. Certainly possible but would require a significant jump in applicants. Maybe second choice and third choice applications can have an effect on first choice odds, but that seems strange IMO and certainly not how the draw is explained on the website.
We saw the same thing happen in Wyoming this year as app numbers jumped, but Wyoming releases odds at the same time as the results so people know exactly what happened and why they did not draw. Here you have no idea and after reading about past issues with the KDWP deer draw it really makes you wonder.
It's also strange that Kansas is not releasing those numbers as it has been months since the draw. Hopefully we will get an explanation soon as there are quite a few people wondering what happened with the draw.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
I appreciate the thought, there is some good archery hunting in Southern Nebraska. I looked for options during sept and I do have a lifetime hunting license in Oklahoma so I could have done an archery hunt down there but I decided it would be stupid on my part considering I'm an hour away from archery elk hunting in Wyoming that time of year. I hunt Nebraska during the Rifle season in Nov and again in Dec for muzzleloader so I really would not have much interest in archery hunting in Sept, it's just not a great time IMO as it's still so hot on the plains. Best option I found was doing a Oklahoma muzzleloader hunt at the end of Oct and first part of Nov. But there is a massive difference in hunting Oklahoma public land and Kansas public land. Even with free tags in Oklahoma I've only hunted it once the last 10 years, it's just a tough place to hunt public land when you are used to places like Wyoming, Kansas, and Nebraska. But Oklahoma is improving as they expand the walk in program.
One of the benefits of the Kansas muzzleloader tag is you can use it in September all well as the December rifle hunt.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
Well the 2018 odds are posted. I guess my phone call helped.
Unfortunately the numbers are what I expected.
https://ksoutdoors.com/Services/Publications/Hunting/2018-Statistics-Deer-Nonresident-Draw
For unit 2 there were 466 tags and only 390 first choice apps. I had unit 2 as my first choice. I did not draw.
Anyone who had unit 2 as a first choice should have drawn, but many did not.
Anyone who had unit 9 should have drawn, but many did not.
And for unit 15 there were 1405 tags and 1415 applicants so all but 10 should have been successful.
I'm more confused than ever as to how Kansas does it's draw.
Unfortunately the numbers are what I expected.
https://ksoutdoors.com/Services/Publications/Hunting/2018-Statistics-Deer-Nonresident-Draw
For unit 2 there were 466 tags and only 390 first choice apps. I had unit 2 as my first choice. I did not draw.
Anyone who had unit 2 as a first choice should have drawn, but many did not.
Anyone who had unit 9 should have drawn, but many did not.
And for unit 15 there were 1405 tags and 1415 applicants so all but 10 should have been successful.
I'm more confused than ever as to how Kansas does it's draw.
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PrairieHunter
Well-known member
Let them know the numbers have beep posted. The group in 2 should have drawn as there were 466 tags and only 390 first choice apps. 15 was likely also a mistake as only 10 people out of 1415 should not have drawn.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
Numbers are posted. Should you have drawn?
https://ksoutdoors.com/Services/Publications/Hunting/2018-Statistics-Deer-Nonresident-Draw
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
Couple of theories have been thrown out there on another site. Both of these are very bizarre and not how other states handle the draw but since they don't really explain how the draw works or the draw odds this could be a reality in Kansas.
1. Kansas draws names randomly of NR's and goes through each hunters first, second, and third choice before going to the next hunter. This allows some hunters third choices to have preference over other hunters first choice. This is confused further by Kansas not reporting second and third choice applicants on the draw odds as they only post first choice applicants which implies that first choice applications have preference and accurately reflect the odds of drawing a tag.
2. Kansas groups party applications and only reports them as 1 applicant. So even though there are 466 tags in a unit and 390 applicant's there are actually more than 466 people applying for tags as first choice which makes the odds less than 100% even though it shows that there should be 76 tags available for second and third choice applicants if it was done like a typical draw in most western states.
Does anyone know how the Kansas draw actually works?
1. Kansas draws names randomly of NR's and goes through each hunters first, second, and third choice before going to the next hunter. This allows some hunters third choices to have preference over other hunters first choice. This is confused further by Kansas not reporting second and third choice applicants on the draw odds as they only post first choice applicants which implies that first choice applications have preference and accurately reflect the odds of drawing a tag.
2. Kansas groups party applications and only reports them as 1 applicant. So even though there are 466 tags in a unit and 390 applicant's there are actually more than 466 people applying for tags as first choice which makes the odds less than 100% even though it shows that there should be 76 tags available for second and third choice applicants if it was done like a typical draw in most western states.
Does anyone know how the Kansas draw actually works?
Jorgy
Well-known member
Yeah, I used to get so many comments at the range with a muzzleloader with a scope on it in Colorado. After a few years I finally gave up and started playing dumb and it was way more fun.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
LOL!. I bet the reactions are priceless.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
Well, here is the explanation from KDWP.
The issue isn't with the drawing, it's with the explanation of the draw stats, or lack of. The draw stats only list first choices, but that doesn't explain how the computer drawing works. The computer randomly draws an application, those with preference points first. It then processes that entire application before drawing another. Each applicant can make up to four unit selections, each with an additional adjacent unit. A permit is issued if the there are permits left in the unit of first selection. However, if the first selected unit is full, it drops to the second selection on the application. So, for example, if the applicant's first selection was Unit 3 and it was full when drawn, the second selection pops up. If applicant's second selection was Unit 2 with Unit 3 as the adjacent unit and there were still permits left in Unit 2, it was awarded. Unit two is adjacent to two units, 3 and 4 that had more first-choice applications than permits available. At least 76 of those applicants selected Unit 2 as one of their choices and their applications were selected in the drawing before yours. So, there were more applications with Unit 2 selected than permits allotted, just not more with Unit 2 as their first selection. If you had made a second selection of Unit 17, which had leftover permits, with Unit 2 as the adjacent unit, you would have a permit that allows you to hunt in Unit 2. I know this is confusing and I am planning on putting an explanation on the Draw Stats page. Call me if you have further questions - 620-672-0765. Mike
The end of the story is they go through a hunters 4 choices before going to the next hunter. The odds posted are meaningless due to the number of 2,3, and 4th choice apps which effect the chances of drawing a tag. Essentially as hunters we have no idea what the odds of drawing a tag in Kansas are. And if you want to play the game apply for adjacent units which have less applicants and list the harder to draw unit as a second choice.
I am thankful Wyoming does not do the draw like this.
The issue isn't with the drawing, it's with the explanation of the draw stats, or lack of. The draw stats only list first choices, but that doesn't explain how the computer drawing works. The computer randomly draws an application, those with preference points first. It then processes that entire application before drawing another. Each applicant can make up to four unit selections, each with an additional adjacent unit. A permit is issued if the there are permits left in the unit of first selection. However, if the first selected unit is full, it drops to the second selection on the application. So, for example, if the applicant's first selection was Unit 3 and it was full when drawn, the second selection pops up. If applicant's second selection was Unit 2 with Unit 3 as the adjacent unit and there were still permits left in Unit 2, it was awarded. Unit two is adjacent to two units, 3 and 4 that had more first-choice applications than permits available. At least 76 of those applicants selected Unit 2 as one of their choices and their applications were selected in the drawing before yours. So, there were more applications with Unit 2 selected than permits allotted, just not more with Unit 2 as their first selection. If you had made a second selection of Unit 17, which had leftover permits, with Unit 2 as the adjacent unit, you would have a permit that allows you to hunt in Unit 2. I know this is confusing and I am planning on putting an explanation on the Draw Stats page. Call me if you have further questions - 620-672-0765. Mike
The end of the story is they go through a hunters 4 choices before going to the next hunter. The odds posted are meaningless due to the number of 2,3, and 4th choice apps which effect the chances of drawing a tag. Essentially as hunters we have no idea what the odds of drawing a tag in Kansas are. And if you want to play the game apply for adjacent units which have less applicants and list the harder to draw unit as a second choice.
I am thankful Wyoming does not do the draw like this.
LCH
Well-known member
Wow.. I'm not going to complain about Indiana deer regs anymore..
MN_Bowhunter4
Well-known member
That is one of the most confusing things I've read in quite a while.
PrairieHunter
Well-known member
I was also shocked as it seems like a strange system where one guys't 4th choice has priority over another first choice. Especially when KDWP only releases the 1st choice applicant's data which I think made most people assume implies that was done to figure draw odds like most other states who release draw data. In the end the data they provide is useless and can't be used for the purpose of determining the chance of drawing a tag.
The part that gets me is the second unit on each tag completely undermines the quota for that unit. So if say unit 5 is really hard to draw you apply for other surrounding units as the primary unit and the hard to draw unit you want to hunt as the secondary unit. They did not account for savvy big game draw folks who will figure out how to play the game. Must be difficult for biologist who really have no idea how many hunters will be in a particular unit.
But the moral of the story is I have not found a single hunter who understood how the Kansas draw worked. Even the Eastmans forum had nobody who was familiar with the Kansas draw and that is what they do for a living. Another archery forum was convinced that party apps were counted as one, which threw numbers off, and was completely incorrect.
Due to my persistence KDWP is going to be putting an explanation on the website so hunters will actually know how the draw works in Kansas.
The moral of the story is this. I screwed up because I, like most other hunters, had no idea Kansas did their draw like this as this was the first time that info has been released apparently.
There is no way to figure draw odds with the data provided or screwy draw system so it's a crapshoot.
Find the unit you want to hunt. Compare adjacent units to see which ones had the least # of first choice apps in relation to the number of tags available. Then apply for the units with best (tags/1st choice apps ratio) as primary unit and another unit (possibly the unit you actually want to hunt) as secondary (if it has a higher % of first choice apps).
ALWAYS use all 4 choices on the application in Kansas. This one is huge. All 4 gives you the best chance of drawing a tag.
Do those things and you will have the best chance to draw a tag in Kansas, I think.
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MN_Bowhunter4
Well-known member
I really don't understand their explanation of the primary and secondary, seems like a pretty simple way to game the system. Thanks for the summation, and I laughed at the line quoted above!
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