Caribou Gear

Jasper wildfire/climate change

Lightning strikes with wind, and a couple brief showers over the last couple days here. Smoke is pouring into the valley tonight. Who knows how many new starts in the Selway are now burning. Fire season is officially here.Screenshot_20240725_191632_Chrome.jpg
 
Well this is old news, but climate change has made the pine beetle problem WORSE.

Like I said earlier, the pathways climate change affects the earth are numerous--and many are totally clueless about them.




“Our research shows that warming shortens the time between beetle generations, supercharging beetle population growth. That can then spur catastrophic mortality in forest systems during drought in the Sierra Nevada and throughout the Western United States.

If the effects of compromised tree defenses (15% to 20%) and increased bark beetle populations (20%) are additive, the team determined that 35% to 40% more ponderosa pines would die from beetle attacks for each degree Celsius of warming.

They found that a quicker rate of producing new generations of off-spring contributed more to killer infestations than did surviving the winter in the absence of cold temperatures fatal to the beetle, yet, surprisingly, the increase in the number of generations was not very big.


“In the Sierra, we saw only about one-third more generations per year, but that really amplified mortality,” Robbins said. “It shows that a small impact in the success of these populations can have a big impact on tree mortality, where we previously thought the beetle needed one whole generation increase to substantially impact mortality.
All this is very true.

MPB infestations get worse when there is not long periods of below zero weather, something we get less and less of all the time.

Some of the data I collect was used here:


Anyone that thinks that climate change isn't responsible for some of the things we're seeing, well, that's just flat living in denial.

Tree species composition is changing, habitat types are changing, understory vegetation is changing, invasive plant species are finding more favorable conditions, conifer encroachment into alpine, tree densities are changing, timing, duration and intensity of snow melt and runoff are changing, etc. etc. etc.

The facts are irrefutable.
 
It is a fixable problem. Emit less greenhouse gases. Curb deforestation. Wean ourselves off of oil and gas as an energy source. I don’t know how that is not understandable
We do not even know what impact greenhouse gases have on the climate. The models used to describe the climate change do not agree with one another, and cannot even go backward and predict what has already happened. Any thought as to how fast the deforested jungles are growing back? And additional CO2 will only accelerate that (biomass is increasing with the increased temps and CO2).

What is understandable is that the news media have almost nobody that understands a teeny bit of the science, and that's because ratings are fear-based. Generate fear, ratings go up, and nobody is smarter in the end because nobody wants to take the time to understand. We do in fact have some influence - but we cannot quantify how much, or just what it is we are doing to drive that small amount of change.

The bulk of research funds in this country come from Washington DC and other deep pockets singing in the same harmony. If you do not sing their tune, you will not be able to conduct research because you will not get paid. That situation is duplicated in some fashion through out the scientific world. There is information out there being presented to the layman, but it is difficult to dig up. Once you do, you start to find not that climate change is not real, but we don't understand it.

What happened in Jasper, Ruidoso, and now in Oregon is terrible. All started by lightning fires (though arson is still suspected in one of the two fires at Ruidoso). Overgrown forests from lack of natural fires, logging, or other management are tinderboxes with far too much fuel in touch with the understory result in horrid fires. Smokey Bear was too good at his job, maybe. But the human influence on climate is not the cause of these fires. The system has far too many moving parts, is too massive and too full of inertia, too dependent upon solar energy for our tiny influence to be the culprit.

In summary, until we understand what is happening, we are not going to fix it. And, the hard part for many to understand is that maybe, just maybe, climate change might well be something that we don't "fix".
 
We do not even know what impact greenhouse gases have on the climate. The models used to describe the climate change do not agree with one another, and cannot even go backward and predict what has already happened. Any thought as to how fast the deforested jungles are growing back? And additional CO2 will only accelerate that (biomass is increasing with the increased temps and CO2).

What is understandable is that the news media have almost nobody that understands a teeny bit of the science, and that's because ratings are fear-based. Generate fear, ratings go up, and nobody is smarter in the end because nobody wants to take the time to understand. We do in fact have some influence - but we cannot quantify how much, or just what it is we are doing to drive that small amount of change.

The bulk of research funds in this country come from Washington DC and other deep pockets singing in the same harmony. If you do not sing their tune, you will not be able to conduct research because you will not get paid. That situation is duplicated in some fashion through out the scientific world. There is information out there being presented to the layman, but it is difficult to dig up. Once you do, you start to find not that climate change is not real, but we don't understand it.

What happened in Jasper, Ruidoso, and now in Oregon is terrible. All started by lightning fires (though arson is still suspected in one of the two fires at Ruidoso). Overgrown forests from lack of natural fires, logging, or other management are tinderboxes with far too much fuel in touch with the understory result in horrid fires. Smokey Bear was too good at his job, maybe. But the human influence on climate is not the cause of these fires. The system has far too many moving parts, is too massive and too full of inertia, too dependent upon solar energy for our tiny influence to be the culprit.

In summary, until we understand what is happening, we are not going to fix it. And, the hard part for many to understand is that maybe, just maybe, climate change might well be something that we don't "fix".

What a load of absolute crap lol
 
Well this is old news, but climate change has made the pine beetle problem WORSE.

Like I said earlier, the pathways climate change affects the earth are numerous--and many are totally clueless about them.




“Our research shows that warming shortens the time between beetle generations, supercharging beetle population growth. That can then spur catastrophic mortality in forest systems during drought in the Sierra Nevada and throughout the Western United States.

If the effects of compromised tree defenses (15% to 20%) and increased bark beetle populations (20%) are additive, the team determined that 35% to 40% more ponderosa pines would die from beetle attacks for each degree Celsius of warming.

They found that a quicker rate of producing new generations of off-spring contributed more to killer infestations than did surviving the winter in the absence of cold temperatures fatal to the beetle, yet, surprisingly, the increase in the number of generations was not very big.


“In the Sierra, we saw only about one-third more generations per year, but that really amplified mortality,” Robbins said. “It shows that a small impact in the success of these populations can have a big impact on tree mortality, where we previously thought the beetle needed one whole generation increase to substantially impact mortality.
The large majority of white bark pine mortality is due to white pine blister rust. Some mortality has also been due to mountain pine beetle. A major mountain pine beetle epidemic did impact all western pine species in the early 2000's. Mountain pine beetle populations are cyclical.

Ponderosa pine inhabit mostly low elevation, dry/ warm sites, that historically had frequent fire regimes. Many of those frequent fire cycles since 1910 have been skipped due to fire suppression. Ponderosa are susceptible to MPB when drought stressed or overstocked. During major MPB infestations, healthy pines are unable to pitch out mass attacks, and also die.

Lodge pole pines live mostly in mid elevation cooler/wetter zones, of mixed severity, and stand replacing fire regimes. Their density make them susceptible to MPB attacks.

Forest dynamics is very complex. Absolutely climate change plays a part in all of this, but there are many other factors to consider as well.

Watch this video, you will learn many things about our climate historically to the present, and how it impacts forests in the northern rockies ecosystem.

 
Knew this thread would bring out the climate change deniers, and thats fine. If you want to be willingly blind to whats happening, who am I to stop you.
The climate has been warming & cooling for millennia....only now there are 8 billion people that are in the way & many are using "Climate Change" to consolidate power & control people to suit their own agenda.
Interesting that countries like China & India, 2 of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gasses are not concerned in any way....while Europe & America are moving to tax everything to "reduce emissions".....but wait...not really cuz we can sell our carbon "credit" & make $$, isn't that an interesting twist?
I am not denying the climate is getting warmer......only pointing out that it is being hijacked for political purposes that are not in the public's best interest.
 
This is not an effective debate strategy to win over undecided people to your point of view.

This ain't CNN and I still have both my ears and don't use spray tan big dawg, I'm not trying to win a debate.

No ones point of view is gonna be changed by whatever is said on here anyways. And thats alright.
 
I was just there two weeks ago. Sad to see it happening but fires are a natural process. Doesn't make losing all the buildings and infrastructure any less devastating but natural.

What's not natural, as others has stated, is the amount of fuel on the ground to burn as we limit natures ability to burn until it combines with a drought and produces something we can't control.

Climate change is real but not in the sense most think about it. The climate has never been in a steady state. The 1900s were the wettest on record for this part of the world looking at paleoclimate records. This is not to say we aren't screwing some things up with all of our emissions/releases and so forth but climate is and always will be changing.

Prayers for all those affected by these events. Just saw another fire started between Banff and Jasper along the Icefield Parkway.
This is also for rjthehunter. The United States currently uses over 20 million barrels of crude oil per day. I also see coal trains miles long heading west to the Asian electrical grid each day. Carbon from the Mesozoic era that should’ve stayed miles underground. Simple common sense would say fossil fuels are the #1 problem-everything else will fix itself if we ever find a way to stop using them. Fossil fuels have enabled us to cover the earth with concrete, asphalt, plastic, toxic chemicals, GMO crops and 7.5 billion too many people in a centuries time. I doubt there are 8 billion European starlings and English sparrows on earth but 8 billion people?!Our burning of fossil Fuels is the foundation of our climate change predicament. Slightly off topic but my most profound takeaway from living through the Covid/pandemic/lockdown was seeing how crystal clear and blue the skies got around towns roadways and cities when humanity stopped marching for just a few days. Also as to people blaming forest fires on mismanaged forests/not enough logging-Canada manages and logs its forests heavily yet they’ve had some of the most destructive wildfires in recent history. When it’s 99F and sunny for a month straight even the healthiest Forest will burn like a box of matches
 
What a load of absolute crap lol
Love it. Quit watching the television and learn a bit about the topic. Simply retorting with "load of absolute crap" demonstrates you and your TV remote need some time apart.

David
NM
 
Love it. Quit watching the television and learn a bit about the topic. Simply retorting with "load of absolute crap" demonstrates you and your TV remote need some time apart.

David
NM

All your posts in here have been a bunch of half-assed anecdotes that ignore decades worth of science. You haven't learned anything about the topic except parroting dumb pseudoscience you probably got from Info Wars or some shit. Arrogance is ignorance in your case.
 
Disconfirmation bias is interesting. It's mainly discussed in marketing circles, and in customer satisfaction surveys. If one has a strong belief about a product, or idea, it takes lots of bad experiences to reverse their opinion. They subconsciously reject all data which violates their belief.

Beliefs can become so strong in some that they reject all contrary data that it approaches true schizophrenia (not "split personalities", as in the movies), but like believing you are dead, or are Jesus, etc. Old joke, do dead people bleed, to schizophrenic patient? Of course not. Doctor draws blood. I was wrong, dead people do bleed.

In point of fact, almost all things are multifactorial. The Earth has been much warmer than it is now (obviously, as you see fossil shellfish all over Montana). Temps are often taken in airports or cities with heat island effects. And we seem to discard the Dust Bowl days completely. And no, circular plowing didn't fix the problem. That was actually in textbooks when I was a kid; all our dads were still plowing in straight rows, and the Dust Bowl didn't come back.

Volcanic activity varies. Solar flare activity varies.

Bobby Kennedy termed the CO2 group "carbon fundamentalists", and suggested we focus instead on clean water, regenerative farming, and smart uses of alternative energy, things upon which folks could actually agree rather than gather into their respective camps and hurl invectives.
 
The large majority of white bark pine mortality is due to white pine blister rust. Some mortality has also been due to mountain pine beetle. A major mountain pine beetle epidemic did impact all western pine species in the early 2000's. Mountain pine beetle populations are cyclical.

Ponderosa pine inhabit mostly low elevation, dry/ warm sites, that historically had frequent fire regimes. Many of those frequent fire cycles since 1910 have been skipped due to fire suppression. Ponderosa are susceptible to MPB when drought stressed or overstocked. During major MPB infestations, healthy pines are unable to pitch out mass attacks, and also die.

Lodge pole pines live mostly in mid elevation cooler/wetter zones, of mixed severity, and stand replacing fire regimes. Their density make them susceptible to MPB attacks.

Forest dynamics is very complex. Absolutely climate change plays a part in all of this, but there are many other factors to consider as well.

Watch this video, you will learn many things about our climate historically to the present, and how it impacts forests in the northern rockies ecosystem.

Tree density is one factor, but that's not the lone factor that makes stands susceptible to MPB, far from it. Elevation, diameter, and tree age are a factor and no denying that less exposure to cold temperature increases MPB populations. Drought is also a factor. Anything that stresses a tree/stand and makes things easier on MPB has the potential for large scale MPB infestations.


Stand density affects tree competition for light and nutrients, so less dense stands tend to have larger, more vigorous trees; however, low density stands have a negative impact on the microclimate that is required to facilitate pheromone mediated attacks, landing, and emergence rates (Bartos and Amman, 1989). Intermediate stand densities of 750–1500 stems/ha are thought to be more conducive to beetle-induced tree mortality (Anhold and Jenkins, 1987), giving rise to a nonlinear relationship between risk and stand density. Stand age relates to the beetle's preference for large-diameter trees (Safranyik et al., 1974), and stand age has an inverse relationship with tree vigor after maturity, which determines a tree's ability to resist infection by beetle-introduced fungi (Shrimpton, 1973). Once physiological maturity has been reached, trees often become more susceptible to attack, although the rate and likelihood of attack is impacted by other variables such as climate (Shrimpton and Thomson, 1983). Stand composition is included in the Shore and Safranyik model because stand risk relates to the amount of near term volume loss, so greater amounts of the preferred host (i.e., lodgepole pine) contribute to higher risk ratings. The composition variable is measured as the percentage of a stand's basal area that is composed of large-diameter lodgepole pine. The location factor incorporates the impact of geographic location on beetle survival. At higher elevations and northern latitudes, beetles are exposed to colder temperatures, thereby increasing overwintering mortality and disrupting the beetle's development cycle (Amman, 1973).

The current state of knowledge on biology and epidemiology of the mountain pine beetle is succinctly reviewed in Safranyik and Carroll (2006). Research indicates that the four stage population cycle of the mountain pine beetle (endemic, incipient-epidemic, epidemic, and post-epidemic) is based on complex interactions with the host tree and an assemblage of secondary bark beetles. Endemic populations of beetles attack stressed and small-diameter trees at low attack densities with little defensive capacity. Tree and stand resistance to infestation is determined by the proportion of mature large-diameter trees in the stand. However, stand resistance breaks down once beetle populations rise above the epidemic threshold (Berryman, 1978b); the point at which the growth in the beetle population exceeds the stand's ability to resist mass attacks of its large, healthy trees (Berryman, 1982). Large-diameter trees promote exponential growth in brood production, thereby enabling an epidemic when suitable host and climatic conditions co-exist (Safranyik et al., 1974). The critical threshold between these epidemic and non-epidemic states is governed by events that increase beetle populations (i.e., warm winter temperatures) or decrease stand resistance (i.e., drought).
 

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