I’m missing something wi WY odds?

[Sagebrush1]

So: this is in regards to non-resident regular pronghorn.

I’ve been hunting a unit the last few years as a second choice draw. I have been keeping track of the “odds” based off WY statistics, so I knew I was going to draw.

However, I was looking at my new Toprut odds data (that newly came with OnX) and looked at this unit. It states 75% odds with zero points.

Im confused - given that:
1) it went to second choice draw the past year

2) the odds calculated are based off last years data

3) tag allocations have not been decided for 2021 draw

How could we have drawn second choice last year? There is something I’m not understanding, so I want to remedy that.

Thanks in advance!

 

[WapitiBob]

unit xx was 75% in the PP side and had 72 1st choice applicants drop to the Random side with a remaining quota of 120 licenses. So, 48 drew as a 2nd choice out of 173 2nd choice applicants.
Toprut and GoHunt are good resources but sometimes to get a complete/easy to see picture you need to look at the actual demand reports.

 

[Pucky Freak]

As I understand it, once the random draw quota is exceeded by the # of first choice applicants, you can no longer count on drawing with 0 points 100% of the time.

 

[THINKIN6X6]

I also have heard that if the resident quota is undersubcribed those tags move over to the nonresident pool. This may not be a huge benefit these days with increased demand but there was a time this helped in leftover units or zero to 1 point units.

 

[Bob-WY]

As I understand it, once the random draw quota is exceeded by the # of first choice applicants, you can no longer count on drawing with 0 points 100% of the time.

yes, basically it's this:

Assume 50 tags available in the PP draw:
- 25 people with 3+ points as first choice, they all get tags, so 25 left
- 20 people with 2 point as first choice, they all get tags, so 5 left
- 10 people with 1 point as first choice, 50% of them get tags on randomly picking
- Everyone with 0 points as first choice, they are out of luck - no tags left

 

[Pucky Freak]

yes, basically it's this:

Assume 50 tags available in the PP draw:
- 25 people with 3+ points as first choice, they all get tags, so 25 left
- 20 people with 2 point as first choice, they all get tags, so 5 left
- 10 people with 1 point as first choice, 50% of them get tags on randomly picking
- Everyone with 0 points as first choice, they are out of luck - no tags left

In the example you provided, everyone with 0 points gets a crack at 17 tags from the random pool. Yes, they are “out of luck” in the PP pool, but their draw odds still might be 100% when you factor in the random pool.

 

[Sagebrush1]

Thanks guys. I think I see where my error in understanding was!

 

[FeartheTurtle]

So: this is in regards to non-resident regular pronghorn.

I’ve been hunting a unit the last few years as a second choice draw. I have been keeping track of the “odds” based off WY statistics, so I knew I was going to draw.

However, I was looking at my new Toprut odds data (that newly came with OnX) and looked at this unit. It states 75% odds with zero points.

Im confused - given that:
1) it went to second choice draw the past year

2) the odds calculated are based off last years data

3) tag allocations have not been decided for 2021 draw

How could we have drawn second choice last year? There is something I’m not understanding, so I want to remedy that.

Thanks in adv

So: this is in regards to non-resident regular pronghorn.

I’ve been hunting a unit the last few years as a second choice draw. I have been keeping track of the “odds” based off WY statistics, so I knew I was going to draw.

However, I was looking at my new Toprut odds data (that newly came with OnX) and looked at this unit. It states 75% odds with zero points.

Im confused - given that:
1) it went to second choice draw the past year

2) the odds calculated are based off last years data

3) tag allocations have not been decided for 2021 draw

How could we have drawn second choice last year? There is something I’m not understanding, so I want to remedy that.

Thanks in advance!

I believe that if the resident tags are undersubscribed they are allocated to non-residents. Could that be skewing the odds?

 

[wytex]

Yes it could. Quotas are set by WG&F but then areas with unallocated resident tags are moved onto the NR draw.