Idaho Mule Deer OTC Success Rates - Real World Experience

[tomengineer]

I think the insinuation is that hunters intentionally under-report their success with the hopes that no new hunters will want to try that unit (because it has a low success rate). I don't know how much this happens, but it's another one of those things that could be dramatically affected by the number of responses for a given unit. For example, if there's a unit with only 10 tags and 5 hunters make a false report, that's going to skew the results a lot more than a unit that has 100 hunters and 5 liars.

Kind of. Here in NY state you are required to report your harvest. However many people don't as they forget, or are just too lazy etc. There is no requirement to report to buy your following year's license (which is a great idea in my opinion). This means NYSDEC basically assumes a certain reporting rate, then extrapolates that data to give a best guess at overall deer harvest. I'm not sure that people out west are intentionally deflating success rates but then again I don't know.

 

[Muley_Stalker]

I would never determine where I hunt by what I read on forums.

 

[tomengineer]

I would never determine where I hunt by what I read on forums.

Yes I agree with you at this point. I’m doing my best just using the Idaho harvest statistics.

 

[marshman]

This year will be my third year deer hunting Idaho in recent years. I have been trying a few different areas of the state, techniques, and even deer types just wanting to experience new adventures. So far one deer in three years, (Whitetail unit 1) it aint easy hunting areas completely new to you. So far a bust for mule deer for me, that's going to change this fall. Pay close attention to motorized road and trail rules and restrictions in Idaho. Figured out some things about motorized trails for sure, a lot of them are ok for motorcycles.

 

[tomengineer]

This year will be my third year deer hunting Idaho in recent years. I have been trying a few different areas of the state, techniques, and even deer types just wanting to experience new adventures. So far one deer in three years, (Whitetail unit 1) it aint easy hunting areas completely new to you. So far a bust for mule deer for me, that's going to change this fall. Pay close attention to motorized road and trail rules and restrictions in Idaho. Figured out some things about motorized trails for sure, a lot of them are ok for motorcycles.

Thanks for this. Do you mean there are a lot of people motorcycle hunting? Or that I should try to use a motorcycle to access deeper areas?

 

[BrianID]

I do think the harvest numbers on the F&G website are fairly accurate. You can look at the trends over the last few years and see that there was a big drop a couple years ago in many units.

Harvest, hunter numbers down for deer and elk in 2019

idfg.idaho.gov

I've killed deer or elk in about 10 different units in Idaho and have probably hunted deer or elk in at least 25 different units. There is no one unit that is going to be the very best so don't get to focused on that. Just pick a unit that looks good and then look over some maps and select an area that looks good in the unit. ONXmaps and google earth are a couple of my favorite resources for electronically scouting areas I'm not familiar with. Once you select an area, make sure you have some back up areas to hunt near by.

The real question is what type of country do you want to hunt? Mule deer only or are whitetail just as good to you?

If you are an experienced whitetail hunter from the NE, you would find more success in the panhandle units because that is more similar to the type of country you are use to hunting. If you want to hunt more open country that you can see for miles then you should focus on the Southern half of the state. If you want to do a backpack hunt in mountains then you shouldn't waste your time looking at desert sagebrush units like 46, 52A, 60A or 63. If you are not an experience mule deer hunter, I would tell you to avoid units with less than 20% success. The units with low success rates can result in an enjoyable hunt but you could end up frustrated not seeing many deer or any deer at all.

Hiking in the mountains in Idaho is much more physically challenging than many first time hunters expect it to be. Hiking just a mile could take a guy that is in good physical shape an hour or more. Some areas, I'm planning on only 1/2 mile per hour.

No matter how much research you do, you will not find a special unit that few people hunt and provides the best hunting. Expect plenty of company in units that have higher success rates and don't expect to see mature bucks out in the open during the open during daylight. OTC units actually have very few mature bucks. Based on my experience, I would estimate that at least 80% of bucks are killed before they are 4 years old. I wouldn't doubt that in some areas 95% of bucks are killed before they are 4 years old. There just are not many mature bucks in Idaho's OTC units.

If you are experienced on a motorcycle in the mountains then you might find one useful for some areas but be aware there are restrictions to motorcycles and 4 wheelers for hunters in some units. Since you bought a plane ticket, I'm guessing that you would have to rent a motorcycle and I think that would be a waste of money for someone showing up to a unit for the first time. If you don't have experience with a motorcycle on mountain trails, I don't think you should even consider it.

Even if you are planing on a general season hunt for deer, you can still apply for a controlled hunt for deer.

 

[tomengineer]

I do think the harvest numbers on the F&G website are fairly accurate. You can look at the trends over the last few years and see that there was a big drop a couple years ago in many units.

Harvest, hunter numbers down for deer and elk in 2019

idfg.idaho.gov

I've killed deer or elk in about 10 different units in Idaho and have probably hunted deer or elk in at least 25 different units. There is no one unit that is going to be the very best so don't get to focused on that. Just pick a unit that looks good and then look over some maps and select an area that looks good in the unit. ONXmaps and google earth are a couple of my favorite resources for electronically scouting areas I'm not familiar with. Once you select an area, make sure you have some back up areas to hunt near by.

The real question is what type of country do you want to hunt? Mule deer only or are whitetail just as good to you?

If you are an experienced whitetail hunter from the NE, you would find more success in the panhandle units because that is more similar to the type of country you are use to hunting. If you want to hunt more open country that you can see for miles then you should focus on the Southern half of the state. If you want to do a backpack hunt in mountains then you shouldn't waste your time looking at desert sagebrush units like 46, 52A, 60A or 63. If you are not an experience mule deer hunter, I would tell you to avoid units with less than 20% success. The units with low success rates can result in an enjoyable hunt but you could end up frustrated not seeing many deer or any deer at all.

Hiking in the mountains in Idaho is much more physically challenging than many first time hunters expect it to be. Hiking just a mile could take a guy that is in good physical shape an hour or more. Some areas, I'm planning on only 1/2 mile per hour.

No matter how much research you do, you will not find a special unit that few people hunt and provides the best hunting. Expect plenty of company in units that have higher success rates and don't expect to see mature bucks out in the open during the open during daylight. OTC units actually have very few mature bucks. Based on my experience, I would estimate that at least 80% of bucks are killed before they are 4 years old. I wouldn't doubt that in some areas 95% of bucks are killed before they are 4 years old. There just are not many mature bucks in Idaho's OTC units.

If you are experienced on a motorcycle in the mountains then you might find one useful for some areas but be aware there are restrictions to motorcycles and 4 wheelers for hunters in some units. Since you bought a plane ticket, I'm guessing that you would have to rent a motorcycle and I think that would be a waste of money for someone showing up to a unit for the first time. If you don't have experience with a motorcycle on mountain trails, I don't think you should even consider it.

Even if you are planing on a general season hunt for deer, you can still apply for a controlled hunt for deer.

Thanks for all of the great information and perspective. We will be in the Ketchum area so I'll have to skip the panhandle for now. We wanted a mule deer only unit as none of us have ever hunted them before but we've hunted plenty of white tail.

I think your comments on finding a "special unit" will help me relax a little bit. We'll manage our expectations, do as much e-scouting as we can and give it a whirl. We plan to apply for a controlled elk hunt as those are better odds where we are looking. The OTC deer tag is our backup plan. Thanks again for the input.

 

[marshman]

Thanks for this. Do you mean there are a lot of people motorcycle hunting? Or that I should try to use a motorcycle to access deeper areas?

Did not want you to think you need a motorcycle or ATV to hunt, sorry for that little misdirection just wanted you to be aware that if you are in a unit that does not have motorized trail restrictions they are there. I saw this ruin the day for a pair of hunters last fall. "I thought this trial had a motorized restriction" as a couple of bikes that were completely legal shot up the trail on opening morning.
Yes, the bikes allow for much deeper access into the hills. The area we hunt is very steep for sure.

 

[tomengineer]

Did not want you to think you need a motorcycle or ATV to hunt, sorry for that little misdirection just wanted you to be aware that if you are in a unit that does not have motorized trail restrictions they are there. I saw this ruin the day for a pair of hunters last fall. "I thought this trial had a motorized restriction" as a couple of bikes that were completely legal shot up the trail on opening morning.
Yes, the bikes allow for much deeper access into the hills. The area we hunt is very steep for sure.

Ok sounds good, thanks again. I'm trying to get as far as I can from any type of trail but with blow down and elevation change we'll see how far I get.

 

[Idhikker]

I saw zero motorbikes last year in 39 country. There’s a lot of hunters but places to escape them, even in 39.

 

[elker]

Ketchum area should be fine. Winter has been average in most of the state. A week in February was cold when a lot of snow was on the ground, I'm sure this had an effect. Best advice I can give is if you're in an area and don't see a lot of deer, move 25 to 50 miles and check out somewhere else. Use maps and identify a few places in case the winter did a number on the muleys in one place or overrun by other hunters. I've been seeing quite a few deer in the central mountains. The OTC gives you a lot of units to hunt, check out some adjacent areas, if needed. Definitely be in shape and for altitude change. It good to check success rates, especially a new area, the deer are there, just need to find them.

 

[BrianID]

Being in top physical shape to climb the mountains mountains around Ketchum will make your hunt much more enjoyable. You could have an enjoyable hunt in any of the units in that area (43,48,49,36, 36a, 36b, etc). Just the experience of hiking around those mountains will probably make the trip worth it to you.

Unit 36a, 49 and 50 have the "motorized vehicle restrictions" so hunters cannot ride a motorcycle or 4 wheeler trails while hunting. I've seen these restrictions not followed many times but it is clearly written in the regulations.

You may as well apply for deer in 44 or another controlled hunt in the area. You never know, you could get lucky and draw and you will have a much more enjoyable hunt on a controlled hunt than the OTC units.

This winter hasn't been as hard on the deer in those units but that could always change. If you are happy with a 1 1/2 year old or 2 1/2 year old buck and physically able to hike and mentally strong enough to hunt for a week, I think you have a better than 50% chance of killing a buck. If you are holding out for an older buck then your odds are really low. It is only my opinion but I believe 90% of the mature bucks in Idaho's general season units are killed by 10% of the hunters. Those 10% of the hunters have put a lot of time and effort into being effective at hunting mature muley bucks.

 

[tomengineer]

Being in top physical shape to climb the mountains mountains around Ketchum will make your hunt much more enjoyable. You could have an enjoyable hunt in any of the units in that area (43,48,49,36, 36a, 36b, etc). Just the experience of hiking around those mountains will probably make the trip worth it to you.

Unit 36a, 49 and 50 have the "motorized vehicle restrictions" so hunters cannot ride a motorcycle or 4 wheeler trails while hunting. I've seen these restrictions not followed many times but it is clearly written in the regulations.

You may as well apply for deer in 44 or another controlled hunt in the area. You never know, you could get lucky and draw and you will have a much more enjoyable hunt on a controlled hunt than the OTC units.

This winter hasn't been as hard on the deer in those units but that could always change. If you are happy with a 1 1/2 year old or 2 1/2 year old buck and physically able to hike and mentally strong enough to hunt for a week, I think you have a better than 50% chance of killing a buck. If you are holding out for an older buck then your odds are really low. It is only my opinion but I believe 90% of the mature bucks in Idaho's general season units are killed by 10% of the hunters. Those 10% of the hunters have put a lot of time and effort into being effective at hunting mature muley bucks.

Ok awesome thanks for the words of encouragement. A 1.5 or 2.5 year old deer would be fine for any of us. As you said it’s largely about the experience, hiking, scouting, camping and fun for us. Thanks for taking the time to write a detailed response.

 

[tomengineer]

Ketchum area should be fine. Winter has been average in most of the state. A week in February was cold when a lot of snow was on the ground, I'm sure this had an effect. Best advice I can give is if you're in an area and don't see a lot of deer, move 25 to 50 miles and check out somewhere else. Use maps and identify a few places in case the winter did a number on the muleys in one place or overrun by other hunters. I've been seeing quite a few deer in the central mountains. The OTC gives you a lot of units to hunt, check out some adjacent areas, if needed. Definitely be in shape and for altitude change. It good to check success rates, especially a new area, the deer are there, just need to find them.

Ok thanks a bunch for the advice and reassurance.

 

[8andcounting]

Lol yep been reading that a lot. Of course then when I go to Montana it’s “you’ll get to meet all the hunt talk users as they are all in Eastern MT during deer season”.

No no it’s not the hunt talkers , it’s all the IPA drinkers from Bozeman . Cmon mAn

 

[HUNTNNW]

why not apply for a controlled hunt for deer? you already got the license and generally hunting a controlled area is a far greater experience. See far more deer

 

[tomengineer]

why not apply for a controlled hunt for deer? you already got the license and generally hunting a controlled area is a far greater experience. See far more deer

Good thought. We considered it but the odds are so low for non-residents we ruled it out. We wanted to be able to book flights/lodging/vehicles with firm dates as far in advance as possible The elk controlled hunt draw odds are as good as they can be for non-residents with some units maxing out at the 10% allocation. The elk controlled hunt dates also line up with the general deer season in the units we are looking at.

 

[Huntin' Fool]

There are some good hunts with drawing odds around 10%.

 

[backcountry_sassn]

success rates aren’t very reliable for states like Idaho where resident OTC tags are so cheap. Especially since they have things like the sportsman package where you get every tag for really cheap. When I lived there I knew a lot of people who got deer tags but never went. Or ran out for an afternoon or morning. Idaho has a lot of deer. Success will depend on how picky you are.

 

[kwyeewyk]

My question is do you find your success rates or success rates of non-residents in general to be in line with what Idaho fish and game has published

When I look at success rates I consider 1)source: sounds like Idaho does a full count so that's good, 2) amount of private vs. public in the unit, 3) try to consider how many people are using guides; assuming more private = higher success, more guides = higher success. I think in general most people report honestly, especially where you have to hunt a designated unit or units and it's more of a yes/no. In Washington with all the general units, maybe more tendency to report the kill in a different unit when reporting in January and nobody is going to question it.

The other thing about success rates, maybe not as much with NR compared to R, is that if you look at it as an average, most people fall below consistently and a few people fall above consistently. Those who know their areas might have 50-100% success rates over long periods of time.