Caribou Gear

How bad is it?

I am seeing a slowdown in some aspects of the work I do for the Oil and Gas industry. I had a great year last year and the Bookkeeper (Wife) funneled a big amount into savings, that was a good thing! We are doing Hearing Plats for the companies to get drilling units establish in a hot play called the Haynesville Shale. I think we must have helped get 5-600 wells drilled last year, I look for that number to be about half this year as everyone who can afford to sit on a lease is watching to see just how much drilling cost will come down as a trickle down effect of the economy.
I have most of my stuff paid off, except the house and 2 trucks. So, we are good there. Like Guppie said my investments have tanked as far as My mutual fund, so I did what anyone would do....I tripled my investment to buy up more share while they are low. I look forward to the year as a challenge, I just hope Wall street can overlook the mortgaging of our future by Obama and his merry men. John
 
Elkgunner said
"The last couple of weeks since January 20 seem to have much more consumer confidence and hope. We likely will have a rolling recovery to get out of this hole."

I hope you are right, but I don't have the confidence to buy anything but food right now. Hey I'm going to invest some money in Campbells soup.:D
 
I am a cnc machinist and programmer as well been doing it for a hell of a long time. all my buddies shops are shutting down, lots of cut throating going on.
Luckly everything I own is paid for so as long as I can make rent and a house payment I dont give a shit.

In 2002 I lost 1.8 million in cash banks and equipment. mostly due to being ripped off by a very good friend who was our loan guy and finacial adviser. we went to sell machines and he sold them at 1/20th of the cost they should have sold for,Acutally reporting to the loancompany they sold for 500 bucks( yeah a 125,000 machine for 500 bucks with 100k in tooling) and sold them for much much more pocketing the rest. fortunately I proved in federal court last year that he actually stoled the machines and sold them for alot more keeping the money and not reporting it to the bank that still had a portion of the loan ( they are the ones that tried to sue me over the ast 5 years but I fugging won with no lawer and lots of internet and leg work 5 years of being stubborn and not filing BK which I should have done(one up for me). I didnt get a dime, I have to sue him thanks to the new evidnece that I aquired during the 5 years I have a very good suit but won't get shit and the statute of limitations is back open for 4 more years as of this jan 2 2009. 14 counts of provable fraud 3 counts of forgery and some racketeering charges. But i am a dumb shit and I want blood he probally dont have money and I can't afford to hire a laywer at 90k for the job) so its back to the internet and law library for me.

so I been through this shit once lived like a fugging hermit for 5 years last May I won the case then got phoenomia and was out for a month finally feeling better about life in general and this fugging ecconomy goes down the tubes.
This one has got me pretty nervious to the point I am at the shop 14+ hours a day 7days a week and don't see my kids until the weekend, the wife I see everyday here at work.

I have always worked my ass off, but I used to go home and do shit with the kids, Now my whole life is about building my shop back up to the way is was before I got ripped off and geting my 1.8 million back and living a decent life. to the point were I am obsessed with it.

just bare with it and cut were you can, we will all make it through it even though its going to be tough. The most important things in life are your family
 
I am a partner in a regional, industrial general contracting firm. The last two to three years have been outstanding, with 2008 our best year ever in terms of both volume and profit. However ...... about mid December, it was like somebody shut the faucet off, sales have tanked, things have slowed down a bunch, and we are down to about 30 men in the field -vs- 100 six months ago.

Myself and my partners are going to be fine. We've seen this $hit before, and we operate cash and carry. Saved a bunch of money when we were making it, and don't carry any significant debt with the company, or personally. We're going to get some good work too, just not the volume we were getting.

We are using this slow time to go through all of the equipment and tools top to bottom, work on our various systems, train, etc. Sharpening the axe, so we can react quickly when things take back off. And personally, I intend to do a little goofing off, take a few trips and enjoy myself a bit while the opportunity is afforded. You can't change what is going on around you, just accept that business is cyclical. Make hay when the sun shines, and build a nest egg to get you through tough periods.

Whoever in the heck suggested "taking some work at negative margins" ..... please get your head out of your azz, and absolutely do not do this. Learn how to hustle and sell, and get some good work. You'll go broke a lot slower with no work, than you will doing jobs at a loss, plus it's a lot easier on you.

I worry about our hourly guys who depend on that weekly paycheck. Although you should expect an occasional layoff in construction, I hate to see those guys off for too long, or they'll be without health insurance, start losing cars, homes, tapping their 401K, etc.

It's going to be tough for the next several months, but we'll tough it out. "There are always a few trees left standing, after the hurricane."
 
Hang in there guys!

The western part of South Dakota has been slow to feel the effects in general. We're starting to see it here and it'll get worse. Maybe just a year behind on the time reaction.

I believe my job is safe. As a single income home with 6 mouths to feed, I dread the thought of "what if".

I really believe I have the best job in the world. I like it a lot. The big bonus days are gone, but I'm happy enough with the base pay.

Fortunately, all 3.5 vehicles are paid for (one just bit the bullet yesterday with 174k miles), and we have about 50% equity in the home. College savings is below par, savings is below par, so we need to work to improve that.
 
Steiny said:
Whoever in the heck suggested "taking some work at negative margins" ..... please get your head out of your azz, and absolutely do not do this. Learn how to hustle and sell, and get some good work. You'll go broke a lot slower with no work, than you will doing jobs at a loss, plus it's a lot easier on you.
."
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I never suggested taking work on negative margins. In order to get work right now , gain market share and keep your guys busy there are a handful of companys that have been doing this here in az going on almost 2 years. Its actually a good way to gain market share if you know its going to be a quick recovery because as soon as the market picks up you can start giving your builders increases since the lumber and truss pricing are on either a 30,60 or 90 day number. With more market share you can put out more volume and ofcourse with more volume your overhead drops and your overall profit rises.. It works out really good if you have inhouse truss and lumber companies that are set up as a profit center. You might be barely breaking even in a tough market but your still making money on materials and your still running money threw the company.. ALso since the start counts are so low buying work your not really losing much in the long run.. Alot of them see it as a long term investment and for a few of them losing a few million a year right now is just a drop in the bucket compared to there insane profits over the boom they experienced..



I myself am not big enough yet to buy work ( go in with zero or negative margins) I just cut my guys hourly rate more and put my nail bags back on to put some cash flow to the bottom line and show a profit so were not closing our doors..
 
As already mentioned, hang in there everyone.

I have a pretty good business and the wife has a nice part-time job with full benefits. We have had a couple of really good years and managed to sock away some cash. We close on our new home Feb. 20th. $800,000 (2 years ago) home and we got it from the bank in a foreclosure for 60% of that. We are only going to put 20% down because I am nervous about the economy and want to keep at least a years worth of cash on hand. That along with great mortgage interest rates have the wife and I pretty excited.

We are debating keeping our current home or trying to sell. I don't think we could cashflow it with rent so we will probably try to sell it. Still have some pretty good equity in it even though it has dropped significantly in value.

Things have really been hard here for the economy. Lots of layoffs and lots of foreclosures. I have to believe things will turn around. Hopefully sooner rather than later.:rolleyes:
 
schmalts said:
???????? WTF????? easily entertained bunch aren't they?
Click to expand...

Yeah did you see that, I was like WTF thats a bunch of brake mechanics I know it is. lol


it looked like alum bronze and they were turning a little to fast. but the people talking they had to be drunk or high and go " Hey I got a good idea after we get totally wasted lets go play with the machines at work"

Unfortunatly I've seen alot of this shit at machine shops except they were running 500k-1million dollar horiztonals and have 100k k parts in them. those ones were they take 1 toold 5 hours of cutting giving the night shift time to go out back and get totally wasted then come in and call the wrong finish tool up or forget to move the fixture and BOOM you have 300lbs of scrap metal
 
The first year, 2007 that I owned the Chumbucket it paid for the investment in two months. I had a box of cash stashed away to get us thru the slow months of Jan, Feb, and March. This year I had to go into some savings to try to get us thru these months. Alot of that had to do with $5 a gallon gas at the Marinas, and a 18inch size limit on Summer Flounder. No one was going to spend $100 in fuel to catch a fish they couldn't keep.
I decided we have to expand to keep going. This year we are branching into Wholesaling live bait, building our own crab traps, bait keepers, etc. Hopefully the money people aren't spending won't extend into their hunting and fishing budgets. I did notice our rod and reel repairs have increased, while new sales have decreased. Which is ok, repairs are more profitable percentage wise than new sales.
I see alot of machinist on here, anybody do injection molding of plastics??
 
I'm thankful every day that I have a good job, very little debt, and never really lived out side my means. Right now I have enough work on my desk to keep me busy for at least a year, and I don't see it letting up any time soon. Our private sector work has slowed some and a few big projects have been canceled recently, however we're still on solid ground with local/state/fed work. Living this close to the 'money' has its upside.

Keep your head up guys, things will get better.
 
Whiskers said:
The first year, 2007 that I owned the Chumbucket it paid for the investment in two months. I had a box of cash stashed away to get us thru the slow months of Jan, Feb, and March. This year I had to go into some savings to try to get us thru these months. Alot of that had to do with $5 a gallon gas at the Marinas, and a 18inch size limit on Summer Flounder. No one was going to spend $100 in fuel to catch a fish they couldn't keep.
I decided we have to expand to keep going. This year we are branching into Wholesaling live bait, building our own crab traps, bait keepers, etc. Hopefully the money people aren't spending won't extend into their hunting and fishing budgets. I did notice our rod and reel repairs have increased, while new sales have decreased. Which is ok, repairs are more profitable percentage wise than new sales.
I see alot of machinist on here, anybody do injection molding of plastics??
Click to expand...


Delw does machine molds for plastic baits and sells all the plastics, glitters, colors and stuff to pour them
 
I think that this is a pretty good thread. Even AK is having its troubles. Hate to say it, but I have to hope for higher oil prices and I am not in the oil field. We had quite the budget surplus last year, which should help us get through this year, but the future is up in the air.

I am fortunate that I have work, and a lot of ours has to be "expedited" for the stimulus plan, or the hopes of "free" money. As for a year from now, I sure hope that things are better, but I am not sure setting our future generations in debt for a hopeful change in economy is best.

How many of you guys really think that your situation will be better by spending billions? It really does not seem to have helped the banks, mortgages gone bad, or real estate markets.
 
We could slow down a little more than I'm expecting. Good thing my wife is an RN. She'll always have work. :D

W. Slope oil & gas tent folds

As W. Slope's boom times quickly fade, some call it a slowdown, others a bust
By Nancy Lofholm
The Denver Post


GRAND JUNCTION — Rick Roth has been working in the oil and gas fields for a decade. He knows the work's ups and downs. So he wasn't totally surprised when he and his co-workers showed up at their rig near Parachute the week before last and were told to tear it down. That would be the end of their jobs.

"It's coming to an end again," Roth said, referring to the drilling boom that has buoyed western Colorado as the nation's economy sinks. "We've been riding the high horse, but I don't think that's coming back."

Layoffs and hiring freezes are rife across the energy fields in recent weeks as rigs are idled. Hours are being cut, workers demoted to positions with lower salaries, raises rescinded. Perks such as company trucks are being recalled. Small contract companies have packed up and moved back to the states they came from.

" 'Operating lean' is the terminology we use," said Doug Hock, spokesman for EnCana Oil & Gas, about his company's decrease from 15 rigs to five in the Piceance Basin and a reduction in capital budget from $700 million to $400 million.

Others refer to the very noticeable drop in oil-field activity as a "slowdown." But some who have lost their livelihoods are matter-of-factly using the term "bust."

And they are blaming it on everything from a sick global economy and low gas prices to new state regulations on the industry and having Democrats in the White House.

Whatever the reason, the reverberations are felt across northwest Colorado, where there is a sea of oil and gas trapped in shale but it is difficult and expensive to tap.

In towns that have been racing to keep up with the big-spender boom of the past four years, rentals are no longer snapped up quickly. Lines form for jobs that once couldn't be filled because workers gravitated to the higher pay in the oil fields.

When Leitner-Poma, a Grand Junction manufacturer of ski lifts, celebrated an expansion last week, 40 people were outside the door the next morning hoping for work. The Rifle Wal-Mart has a full roster of employees for the first time in years.

Cindy Hoppe, property manager for Bray Real Estate in Grand Junction, said rental homes in the $1,200-and-above range that previously were rented as quickly as they were advertised now sit on the market for weeks. Rental rates have dropped for those homes while the demand for low-cost homes still exceeds the supply.

Silt Mayor Dave Moore is a contractor and homebuilder who normally would be building three spec houses at this time of year. He is building one and is dropping the $250,000 price by $40,000.

"Before, we were just going like a bunch of houses on fire because of the demand," Moore said. "But there's not a whole lot going on now."
In neighboring Rifle, Mayor Keith Lambert sees the downturn in a better light.

"I lived here during the oil-shale bust (of 1982). I see this as a slowdown, but nowhere near as drastic as that," Lambert said.

He pointed out that four hotels are under construction in Rifle, school enrollment is still up and the city is anticipating more growth for this year.
The outlook is gloomier at the Base Camp Cafe in Rifle's downtown — once a breakfast hot spot for oil and gas workers.

"It's really sad. We've had to say goodbye to a lot of our good customers," said Lori Vigil, a hostess at the cafe.

She is talking about all the workers who are moving back to Louisiana, Texas and Wyoming because they lost their jobs.

She said some oil-field workers who were making upward of $75,000 in the energy industry now ask for dishwashing jobs.

Cory Grahm considers himself one of the lucky ones, even though he is bringing home less pay.

He was a tool pusher for Cyclone Drilling Inc., a company that just laid off most of its workforce in the Piceance Basin. Grahm was demoted to driller — with a lower salary — but managed to hang onto a job.

"I was prepared for it, so I'm not too worried," Grahm said.

Grahm and some others in the industry predict the downturn will ease in a year or two and the jobs will come back. They also point out that some jobs must remain.

Simon Peavey believes that. He owns seven trucks and three trailers and works hauling water to and from drilling rigs. The services of his company, Simon Peavey LLP, have been much in demand for the past five years, but work dropped off in January.

"It was my poorest month since this (boom) began," he said.

He has kept his seven employees on the payroll even though there is only a little bit of intermittent work in the foreseeable future. He said he thinks the work will come because drilling companies that have slowed down are still going to need production water hauled away from their wells.

"People need to keep in mind we still have 3,000 active gas wells that are producing 850 million cubic feet per day. We are continuing to build a $350 million gas-processing plant in Rio Blanco County," said Susan Alvillar, spokeswoman for Williams Production, one of the largest producers in the Piceance Basin.

Still, Williams has idled six of the 26 rigs it was operating at the height of the boom.

"We're taking an extremely cautious approach," Alvillar said.

Williams has not laid off any of the 250 workers at its Parachute offices, but its rig laydowns have had a domino effect in unemployment.

Bud Pease, a contract consultant for Williams, worked his last day Friday.
"It's kind of a surprise and a disappointment," said Pease, who has worked in the oil fields 40 years and, like Roth, has weathered the ups and downs.

"We had hoped for a seven to 10 year run this time. But I guess four years ain't too bad." Peavey survived the oil-shale bust in 1982, and lately he has been thinking about a bumper sticker from that era: "Dear God, please let there be one more boom."
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