Help Me Pick Elk Season - CO First vs. Second Rifle

[noharleyyet]

I've always relied on the closest rifle dates to the rut.....

 

[shannerdrake]

It's unit specific but take it with a grain of salt. Colorado sends random surveys out to hunters and compiles information based on the handful of responses they get back. It's an educated guess, at best. In addition to that, I know of many hunters that aren't truthful in their responses to the surveys, i.e. they might not report of being successful to avoid others targeting the area because of high success rates. Again, I wouldn't base anything solely on those success rates.

I appreciate the response and don’t ask this question as a challenge in any way.

However, if the survey process is consistent, which I believe it is regardless of season, then if all things are equal and one season has a much higher success rate than the others, how can one not believe that the success rate is actually higher?

In short, regardless of the season and going back 5 years, first rifle is always showing twice the success rate (approximately) as second rifle. So unless the survey process is different for first rifle than second, first rifle success rate has to be higher to at least some degree. Right?

 

[cohunter14]

I appreciate the response and don’t ask this question as a challenge in any way.

However, if the survey process is consistent, which I believe it is regardless of season, then if all things are equal and one season has a much higher success rate than the others, how can one not believe that the success rate is actually higher?

In short, regardless of the season and going back 5 years, first rifle is always showing twice the success rate (approximately) as second rifle. So unless the survey process is different for first rifle than second, first rifle success rate has to be higher to at least some degree. Right?

That's a great point, and yes, you are probably correct that it has higher success rates to some degree. To what degree is the difficult question. It's probably worth doing some digging to see if you can find out why the success rates might go down that much as well. A phone call to the local wildlife agent in the area could be worth it. Maybe the success looks like that because elk move onto private land after the shooting starts, in which case it might be more beneficial for you? I'm not saying that's the case, but I've seen that in certain units.

 

[noharleyyet]

I appreciate the response and don’t ask this question as a challenge in any way.

However, if the survey process is consistent, which I believe it is regardless of season, then if all things are equal and one season has a much higher success rate than the others, how can one not believe that the success rate is actually higher?

In short, regardless of the season and going back 5 years, first rifle is always showing twice the success rate (approximately) as second rifle. So unless the survey process is different for first rifle than second, first rifle success rate has to be higher to at least some degree. Right?

If you wanna start a real chitstorm, ask about moon phase . . .

 

[shannerdrake]

That's a great point, and yes, you are probably correct that it has higher success rates to some degree. To what degree is the difficult question. It's probably worth doing some digging to see if you can find out why the success rates might go down that much as well. A phone call to the local wildlife agent in the area could be worth it. Maybe the success looks like that because elk move onto private land after the shooting starts, in which case it might be more beneficial for you? I'm not saying that's the case, but I've seen that in certain units.

Thank you again!

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Of course it is #2 and you asked us to justify the fact you were already decided on #2.

 

[shannerdrake]

Of course it is #2 and you asked us to justify the fact you were already decided on #2.

Not sure I follow. I was (am?) leaning #1. I am probably putting way too much stock in the success rates.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Not sure I follow. I was (am?) leaning #1. I am probably putting way too much stock in the success rates.

I do believe you are putting too much faith in historical success rate. Because who knows how many reporting are reporting off public land hunts? The private land sounds like a sanctuary as nobody else will have previously hunted when you hunt it. Just because you have access doesn’t mean you’re stuck, right? As in you could go on public land too. Then also having deer in season makes second hunt anywhere that much more valuable.

 

[cedahm]

Just my friend and me. About 3000 acres spread out over 5 parcels. Some connect some don't. About 2000ft spread in elevation and divided across two drainages.

What's the nature of the private ground? Is it feed/ag? Lower country/winter range? Forested Sanctuary with similar terrain to the surrounding area? Does it border public or close to it?

In a vacuum, I would typically always choose 1R over 2R, especially in an OTC unit. In many parts of the state, the rut is carrying over well into 1R. More and more the last decade or so.

If these parcels are a known sanctuary that elk get driven too annually, and you'd still be the first to hunt it, then 2R is probably good and you keep your points, but if there's no compelling reason for elk to go in there otherwise, 1R might still be better. In other words, not all private is equal.

 

[JAG]

If you wanna start a real chitstorm, ask about moon phase . . .

Yup, and caliber choice.

In my own self reasoning- (please correct if I'm wrong). Take a closer look at the number of tags issued in 1st vs 2nd. As someone else pointed out, the 2nd rifle might be OTC. If it is OTC or there are lots more tags issued in 2nd Rifle, then your harvest success would naturally be much lower.

Private land access may be the 'cheat code' to this unit; if so, I'd think about 1st Rifle since they will still be herded up and bugging more. 2nd Rifle, your bigger bulls will be closer to post-rut mode and more solitary.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

I

Just my friend and me. About 3000 acres spread out over 5 parcels. Some connect some don't. About 2000ft spread in elevation and divided across two drainages.

Are they adjacent to public or other private? I only asked to gauge any differences to impact of hunting pressure you might see vs the majority of people on public.

 

[Tcal719]

Hey All,

I need some help picking a season for this fall. My hunting partner and I have narrowed it down to Colorado first or second rifle for elk (and maybe mule deer). However, we need some help choosing! We will be hunting DIY on private land.

First rifle - we can draw elk and we would be elk only hunting as there is no deer season. According to GoHunt, success rate for first rifle elk is averaging 30.2% over the last 5 years.

Second rifle - elk is OTC, so we would save our points, and we could draw mule deer so we would have both tags. GoHunt success rate for second rifle elk is averaging 14.2% over the last 5 years. Mule deer average around 50% success rate during second rifle in this unit.

A few questions - those of you who know better, does it really make sense that you are more than twice as likely to kill and elk in first rifle (30.2%) than in second rifle (14.2%)?

Would you be willing to give up the increased success rate of first rifle to gain a 50% success rate chance at a mule deer AND an elk?

The land we hunt (we have hunted here a few times before) does have elk and mule deer in the same areas. I have seen and harvested both deer and elk on the property before. Also, regardless if we go first or second rifle, we will be the first hunters on the property this fall.

Thank you in advance!

For you situation. 2nd would be best. just my 2 cents.

 

[tah1375]

I agree the success rates can be very deceiving. For elk only I think I would prefer the first season but if I could hunt both deer and elk in the second and didn't necessarily have to worry about being first in I would go second. Do you mind narrowing down for me where you are planning to hunt. I am a Colorado native and have elk hunted for near 40 years.