Help Me Pick Elk Season - CO First vs. Second Rifle

[noharleyyet]

I've always relied on the closest rifle dates to the rut.....

 

[shannerdrake]

It's unit specific but take it with a grain of salt. Colorado sends random surveys out to hunters and compiles information based on the handful of responses they get back. It's an educated guess, at best. In addition to that, I know of many hunters that aren't truthful in their responses to the surveys, i.e. they might not report of being successful to avoid others targeting the area because of high success rates. Again, I wouldn't base anything solely on those success rates.

I appreciate the response and don’t ask this question as a challenge in any way.

However, if the survey process is consistent, which I believe it is regardless of season, then if all things are equal and one season has a much higher success rate than the others, how can one not believe that the success rate is actually higher?

In short, regardless of the season and going back 5 years, first rifle is always showing twice the success rate (approximately) as second rifle. So unless the survey process is different for first rifle than second, first rifle success rate has to be higher to at least some degree. Right?

 

[cohunter14]

I appreciate the response and don’t ask this question as a challenge in any way.

However, if the survey process is consistent, which I believe it is regardless of season, then if all things are equal and one season has a much higher success rate than the others, how can one not believe that the success rate is actually higher?

In short, regardless of the season and going back 5 years, first rifle is always showing twice the success rate (approximately) as second rifle. So unless the survey process is different for first rifle than second, first rifle success rate has to be higher to at least some degree. Right?

That's a great point, and yes, you are probably correct that it has higher success rates to some degree. To what degree is the difficult question. It's probably worth doing some digging to see if you can find out why the success rates might go down that much as well. A phone call to the local wildlife agent in the area could be worth it. Maybe the success looks like that because elk move onto private land after the shooting starts, in which case it might be more beneficial for you? I'm not saying that's the case, but I've seen that in certain units.

 

[noharleyyet]

I appreciate the response and don’t ask this question as a challenge in any way.

However, if the survey process is consistent, which I believe it is regardless of season, then if all things are equal and one season has a much higher success rate than the others, how can one not believe that the success rate is actually higher?

In short, regardless of the season and going back 5 years, first rifle is always showing twice the success rate (approximately) as second rifle. So unless the survey process is different for first rifle than second, first rifle success rate has to be higher to at least some degree. Right?

If you wanna start a real chitstorm, ask about moon phase . . .

 

[shannerdrake]

That's a great point, and yes, you are probably correct that it has higher success rates to some degree. To what degree is the difficult question. It's probably worth doing some digging to see if you can find out why the success rates might go down that much as well. A phone call to the local wildlife agent in the area could be worth it. Maybe the success looks like that because elk move onto private land after the shooting starts, in which case it might be more beneficial for you? I'm not saying that's the case, but I've seen that in certain units.

Thank you again!

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Of course it is #2 and you asked us to justify the fact you were already decided on #2.

 

[shannerdrake]

Of course it is #2 and you asked us to justify the fact you were already decided on #2.

Not sure I follow. I was (am?) leaning #1. I am probably putting way too much stock in the success rates.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Not sure I follow. I was (am?) leaning #1. I am probably putting way too much stock in the success rates.

I do believe you are putting too much faith in historical success rate. Because who knows how many reporting are reporting off public land hunts? The private land sounds like a sanctuary as nobody else will have previously hunted when you hunt it. Just because you have access doesn’t mean you’re stuck, right? As in you could go on public land too. Then also having deer in season makes second hunt anywhere that much more valuable.

 

[cedahm]

Just my friend and me. About 3000 acres spread out over 5 parcels. Some connect some don't. About 2000ft spread in elevation and divided across two drainages.

What's the nature of the private ground? Is it feed/ag? Lower country/winter range? Forested Sanctuary with similar terrain to the surrounding area? Does it border public or close to it?

In a vacuum, I would typically always choose 1R over 2R, especially in an OTC unit. In many parts of the state, the rut is carrying over well into 1R. More and more the last decade or so.

If these parcels are a known sanctuary that elk get driven too annually, and you'd still be the first to hunt it, then 2R is probably good and you keep your points, but if there's no compelling reason for elk to go in there otherwise, 1R might still be better. In other words, not all private is equal.