Gentleman's Proposal Re: MT Nonresident Sheep

[sticksender]

When I first began studying the MT sheep draw stats many years ago, I too worried that NR's applying for and drawing ewe tags might be causing NR ram tags to be "lost". However in actual practice this seldom happens. When NR fail to draw a full 10% limit of a region's total tag allocation, no NR ram tags are being "lost".

In the 2012 draw, only 3 ewe tags were drawn by NR's.

Looking at where they were drawn, the first two came from Region 6.

In Region 6 the total sheep tag quota was 82, with 2 NR ewe tag drawn, and 2 Ram tags drawn, i.e. far less than 10%. Therefore no NR's "lost out" on Ram tags in Region 6 as a result of NR ewe tag draw success.

If you look at Region 1, it is possible, but no way to know for sure, that some NR lost out on a ram tag due to the 1 ewe tag that was drawn by a NR. This is because the total tag quota was 36, with 2 NR ram tags drawn and 1 NR ewe tag, for a total of three. Four NR tags would not have been allowable due to the 10% ceiling by region.

No ewe tags were drawn by NR in any other region, so there was no effect on NR chances for ram tags elsewhere. So the total maximum potential "damage" caused by the NR ewe applicants, was one NR ram tag.

In truth, the biggest factor reducing the chance for NR to draw ram tags in MT is the "up-to" draw algorithm itself. Unlike other nearby states such as Colorado, Wyoming and Utah who ALLOCATE sheep tags to NR in a separate draw, zero sheep tags are allocated to NR in Montana. Therefore it is actually possible for NR to draw no tags at all in a given year. Not complaining per se, since I know this is the gig when I enter the draw each year. But their chosen technique sure kills the draw odds for NR. I would simply ask.....is a measly 10% too much to ask...lol !

 

[MTGunner]

Odds...

Plus 1 for Bens' proposal. I have many bonus points and have applied for a bighorn sheep tag for many years to no avail. I have applied for this upcoming season, bought another bonus point, and am hopeful. But, as a resident with such odds I am not jaded enough to believe I will ever draw a resident bighorn sheep tag for the zone I desire. Having said that, I don't apply for ewe tags. Let's face it, most or all, want the ram tag and don't consider a ewe tag. A ewe tag is merely settling for a bighorn sheep tag, not their first choice. Yes, the odds for a nonresident are long yet vaguely possible. It took many years before I was successful to draw a resident mtn. goat permit bonus points and all. I will continue to apply for a ram permit until I deem my body not willing to chase 'em. Ya' gotta go for it. MTG

 

[thecrittergitter]

also..................stop buying wool!:d only wear synthetics, especially when hunting sheep

lmfao!!

 

[bow-n-head]

Yea odds suck and I live in MT. I couldn't imagine hoping to draw a nonresident permit. The problem with bonus points is everyone else also has as many. So far I have all of them. As do Many others.

 

[rmyoung1]

When I first began studying the MT sheep draw stats many years ago, I too worried that NR's applying for and drawing ewe tags might be causing NR ram tags to be "lost". However in actual practice this seldom happens. When NR fail to draw a full 10% limit of a region's total tag allocation, no NR ram tags are being "lost".

That might be true on years when nonresidents don't meet the max but every ewe tag drawn kills our chances of ever drawing 10% of the ram tags. I don't claim to know all the nuances of the draw, but it is my understanding that every ewe tag drawn is important for nonresident applicants because it keeps the POSSIBLE numbers of ram hunters down. Yes, nonresidents didn't meet the 10% max of 21 tags in 2012, but with nonresidents drawing 3 ewe tags, we don't even have the chance to draw 21 tags. It's pretty easy to imagine a scenario where a nonresident's name comes out of the hat and is rejected because the nonresident max had been met by 15 nonresident ram tags plus 6 nonresident ewe tags drawn, as an example. That would be a shame. That's why I'm sayin' we should leave the ewes for residents and help each other out.

Just because we didn't meet the max in 2012 doesn't mean we aren't killing our chances if I understand the draw correctly.

 

[LopeHunter]

I don't claim to know all the nuances of the draw, but it is my understanding that every ewe tag drawn is important for nonresident applicants because it keeps the POSSIBLE numbers of ram hunters down. Yes, nonresidents didn't meet the 10% max of 21 tags in 2012, but with nonresidents drawing 3 ewe tags, we don't even have the chance to draw 21 tags. It's pretty easy to imagine a scenario where a nonresident's name comes out of the hat and is rejected because the nonresident max had been met by 15 nonresident ram tags plus 6 nonresident ewe tags drawn, as an example. That would be a shame. That's why I'm sayin' we should leave the ewes for residents and help each other out.

Just because we didn't meet the max in 2012 doesn't mean we aren't killing our chances if I understand the draw correctly.

When is the most recent year when non-resident met the max for sheep tags?

If the non-resdient cap is 21 yet the cap is not met even when add up ewe and ram tags then seems to me the issue is how regions award all tags so that residents exceed 90%. I assume residents comprise more than 90% of applicants and 90% of weighted points. Thus the cap was not reached. How did 3 ewe tags block a non-resident ram tag? Assume each of the persons that drew a ewe tag had instead selected a ram tag. Tags had to be left in the region whether was a ram or ewe application, correct? And the 21 cap was not reached, correct? What am I missing?

 

[rmyoung1]

How did 3 ewe tags block a non-resident ram tag?

Yeah, the impact in 2012 was minimal since nonresidents finished well shy of the max, but we have the benefit of hindsight when looking at 2012. Who knows how 2013 will play out? All we know is that the ewe tags drawn for nonresidents will reduce the possible number of ram tags drawn. Lets leave the ewes for the residents so that nonresidents will have a better chance at maximizing the number of ram hunters.

 

[sticksender]

rmyoung1- It's actually not that complicated for this particular issue. Don't even worry about the complexities of how the draw is executed, point status, point squaring, and etc, but rather just note the algorithm used for distributing tags to NR's is to limit them to up-to-10% of the sheep tags in a region. Note also that certain magazine sources have added to the confusion via some of the comments they have published in the past about the hazards of applying for ewe and cow tags in the MT draw.

In draw year 2012, with the exception of the sheep tags in Region 1 only, as I've outlined above, NR ewe tag winners had no impact on the ability for the rest of the NR pool to be drawn for ram tags. In Region 1, it is possible, but not assured, that one more Ram tag could have gone to a NR in the absence of the successful NR ewe applicant.

In the only other region where ewe tags were won by NR's, which was region 6, we can confirm by reading the drawing statistics report that the NR ewe applicants had no effect on anyone else, because there was still NR sheep tag quota (ram and ewe) left by the time all the tags from that region were awarded in the draw. Until the regional ceiling is reached, NR's are awarded tags when their name comes up, regardless of any ewe tags drawn. The sheer volume of resident applications, along with the 'luck of the draw' were the two culprits, not ewe tag winners.

 

[sticksender]

Also as I mentioned above, if we as NR were going to "lobby" for anything, IMO we should lobby for our own measly 10% NR allocation by region, with specific ram and ewe tags placed in a separate NR draw. Good luck with that one though!

 

[rmyoung1]

I follow you, stick. And you looking at the region-specific numbers shines some additional light on it. i hadn't gotten that deep in the data. Clearly, a dedicated nonresident 10% would increase our odds, but my proposal is something that, theoretically, we could actually control. If nonresidents stayed away from ewe tags then at least we would have the CHANCE to draw 10% of the ram tags.

Ok, I gotta stop this now. I'm boring myself so I'm pretty sure everyone else here is sick of this thread.

 

[MTGunner]

If you want to control your own destiny I suggest putting in for the unlimited draw zones. MTG

 

[rmyoung1]

If you want to control your own destiny I suggest putting in for the unlimited draw zones. MTG

Trust me... I've thought about it on many, many occasions, especially when I go home for Christmas and see these guys in an unlimited area.

 

[sticksender]

The other thing, and I hate to mention it, that causes a higher volume of NR's to apply for ewe tags (and ram tags too) is the relatively cheap NR tag price (750), compared to other western states. Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico being the other 3 states offering ewe tags, charge 3-4 times as much (1900-3100). I know back when I was interested in a ewe tag, MT was at the top of my list due to the cheap tag fee. Not that I'd ask them to raise fees, but a little surprised they haven't.

 

[mtmuley]

I don't care who you are, 750 bucks for a Montana bighorn is a deal. I'm a resident, and if I had to sport that to apply, I damn sure would. mtmuley