Future MT grizz range

[Sioux33]

After reading the thread on the possible reintroduction of g bears into the Selway-Bitterroots and seeing how healthy the Yellowstone and Glacier populations are, I'd be curious to hear opinions on what the grizzly range will look like 5-10-15 years down the road. Do you think they'll extend into the island ranges like the Belts, Crazies, Castles, etc. or just the western part of the state (Roots, Sapphires, Anaconda, T-Roots, etc)? Or do you think a hunting season will limit their expansion and keep the population stable with what it is today? Anyways, it seems like it's only a matter of time, but am interested to hear some thoughts.

 

[Hem]

I have heard from credable sources of grizz sightings in TObacco Roots,Elkhorns,and Big Belts.This is certainly plausible, all areas are basically connected to one another and extend far enough south to connect with more known habitat.

 

[BigHornRam]

Not really sure. I am signed up for another seminar with Jamie Jonkel in February, and should get some interesting perspectives from him, then.

 

[Gr8bawana]

I don't know if any of us will live long enough to see a hunt for grizzly in the lower 48. Look how long it took for a wolf hunt and their still fighting against it. I mean us middle aged people.

 

[Nameless Range]

I wouldn't consider the Big or Little Belts "Island Ranges", and, we have good reason to believe that grizzlies have already been traveling through them in the last few years.

I doubt there will ever be consistent populations in the Crazies- multiple bears would have to make the trip for a population to establish.

As I said in the Reintroduction thread, a coworker brought a picture of a griz in his front yard to work in August - he lives in the northern Elkhorns. I wrote this on another thread where we were discussing griz:

In 2007, a very large griz was hit and killed by a vehicle in Lincoln Montana while crossing Highway 200. There is nothing between Lincoln, and Macdonald Pass to the south but 30 miles of National Forest along the spine of the Nevada Mountains. Keep in mind this was 7 years ago, and griz have been doing pretty well in the meantime.

Despite FWP insistence that there won't be griz in the Highlands and Tobacco Roots. I would bet they travel into and through them frequently. There are solid griz populations in the Gravellys and Greenhorns, and the only thing separating those ranges from the Tobacco Roots is a very lonely Highway 287, in the form of 30 feet of asphalt. And clearly, Griz cross roads.

There have been occasional griz documented in the Pintlers.

So, from Macdonald Pass to the northern reaches of the Tobacco Roots and the Boulder/Jefferson Valleys is 50 miles of National Forest and two highways. From Macdonald Pass to the Pintlers is 35 miles of woods and one highway.

My take is that I wouldn't be surprised to see a grizzly anywhere west of the Little Belts.

I think large interconnected tracts of agriculture and development would inhibit the griz expansion once the griz reach the praries, though they do travel river bottoms and as recently as last year winter dens were found nearly 20 miles from the Rocky Mountain Front.

There are those who think the bears cannot live outside of their respective enclaves in the GYA and the Crown of the Continent. I wonder though,
when Lewis and Clark encountered their first sign of Grizzly bear, on Oct 7, 1804 at the mouth of the Moreau River in South Dakota- do you think those griz were living off Whitebark Pine?

Ultimately, only genetic information will tell the tale of whether or not those two populations are in fact - one. My prediction is that within ten years this will in fact be the conclusion of biologists, and eventually we will not be surprised to find grizzlies anywhere in western Montana. Though, a hunting season may take twice as long.

 

[shoots-straight]

If the Griz populations continue in the next decade, just as they have in the last one, I see a hunting season (although limited) within that next decade.

 

[.280 Remington]

I would guess there are a lot more of them in a lot more places than people think. They're stealthy buggers.

 

[Carnage2011]

I have personally seen grizzlies in the highlands and tobacco roots. I've also seen several on the gravellys but that's pretty common these days.

 

[sbhooper]

I fail to understand how the "experts" claim to know how many grizzlies are in a specific area. They are not like elk or deer that can be counted from a plane etc. Based on what I know about areas in NW Wyoming, I don't think they are even close in their estimation of populations.

Grizzlies are expanding and left unchecked, will populate all areas of suitable habitat at some point.

 

[BuzzH]

Hair snares and DNA samples...

Certain times of the year grizzlies really congregate on specific food sources as well. This often leads to the "theres a grizzly behind every tree" babble that comes from locals sitting on bar stools. No question there is a good population of grizzlies, certainly a huntable population even, but far from one behind every tree.

It always amazes me that hunters have a lot of trust for biologists and their management recommendations for things they can hunt, but hardly any on the animals they cant.

IMO/E, I'd say that the population estimates for some of the game species are more suspect than those of animals like grizzly bears, etc I know of quite a number of deer population models here in Wyoming being totally jacked up...as in over-estimating populations by about 30-40%. Supposedly its been dealt with.

Bottom line is that they call them population ESTIMATES for a reason.

 

[.280 Remington]

Hey Buzz, who said anything about trusting biologists for game animals?

 

[BuzzH]

I suppose the lack of hunters at commission meetings, season setting meetings, etc. would lead me to believe that a vast majority of hunters are either supportive, or (more than likely) apathetic.

 

[.280 Remington]

I suppose the lack of hunters at commission meetings, season setting meetings, etc. would lead me to believe that a vast majority of hunters are either supportive, or (more than likely) apathetic.

I agree on the apathy. However, my experience has been that trying to persuade F&G departments is roughly akin to pissing into a 40 mph wind.

I still show up though. Just because I get some enjoyment out of busting their balls. I firmly believe they only hold those meetings because they are legally obligated to.

 

[sbhooper]

I agree on the apathy. However, my experience has been that trying to persuade F&G departments is roughly akin to pissing into a 40 mph wind.

I still show up though. Just because I get some enjoyment out of busting their balls. I firmly believe they only hold those meetings because they are legally obligated to.

Agreed. They depend more on computer models than input from hunters and their own field people.

 

[BuzzH]

280, I think it depends a lot on the particular State in question.

IME, Montana hiring biologists really is akin to pissing in the wind. Pretty tough to manage much of anything when considering the season structures and reactive management there, that haven't changed in 6 decades.

IMIE, Wyoming is about 180 degrees opposite, very pro-active management with season structure changes, season lengths, shifting quotas, etc. etc. etc.

But, as to the question posed by sbhooper, I think most states have a pretty good handle on Grizzly population estimates.

 

[JLS]

Grizzlies are expanding and left unchecked, will populate all areas of suitable habitat at some point.

If for none other than sociological reasons, grizzlies will NEVER occupy all of their suitable habitat.

 

[BigHornRam]

For anyone interested in hearing from one of Montana's top grizzly experts, Jamie Jonkel will be doing a seminar in Missoula, in February.

http://www.msuextension.org/forestry/FMC/pdf/2015forestryminicollege.pdf

 

[Montana Advocate]

There are already Grizz in the Little Belts. I know, as one moved in to my hunt area 3 years ago. I think it is only inevitable that Grizz expand in to new territory as their population increases and available habitat decreases.