Drought Conditions

[TOGIE]

I just drove from the SLC area to western CO and back yesterday and it was bad. VERY little snow through the entire drive. I really fear what this summer is going to do in terms of fires and drought to the wildlife. There is not going to be enough feed for many of them if we don't get a few storms in the coming weeks.

its bad. Even if we got above average snowfall the rest of the spring it’s not going to be enough pull us out of drought. Soil moisture is an important component of forecasted runoff.... after last fall there is practically no soil moisture

that means the greenery will likely be starting off in deficit and alot the snowmelt will go to the ground instead of the rivers

That’s what’s not a guessing game.

 

[LuketheDog]

this graph is the one you really wanna pay attention to:

View attachment 176404

things could still turn around. but we're not trending well. i mean WY 2020 was trending well but the early snowmelt cause a disaster more or less - see how early the blue line dropped off compared to average? and we're not even trending as well as WY2020.

SWE is just one component of a drought index anyway (average temps, avergae precip (snow and rain), average streamflows, reservoir storage levels, soil moisture, etc etc). whether the SWE numbers are good or bad doesn't tell the whole story of a drought.

las year's average snowfall coupled with early snow melt and a very dry summer means we're in a drought. the current realistic outlook on our current situation is not enough for us to forget about how bad things were last year, if not make it worse.

there is a reason all the major water providers are rather concerned right now.

Same data source from SNOTEL, the line graph is just statewide avg...

The base was looking pretty bony at Keystone yesterday!

 

[AlaskaHunter]

The Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge in California has low water problems. The USFWS has developed a draft Environmental Assessment for the refuge. Alternative C is to lease water rights from private owners with 1- to 5-year agreements...cost would be
$~4-6 million for 30,000 acre feet of water/year.

 

[JustinsDad]

Casitas is low huh? Crazy, We used to fish down there occasionally when I was in college...

Yes—this picture is taken from the road today. Note the dam on the left and on the right used to be the island.

 

[TOGIE]

Same data source from SNOTEL, the line graph is just statewide avg...

The base was looking pretty bony at Keystone yesterday!

yeah exact same data....

different stories though

a mostly green map is misleading to me with the reality of the water supply situation we’re in

 

[hank4elk]

Most of eastern AZ & western NM just got updated to extreme drought on NOAA drought monitor.

 

[AndyPOW]

FYI:

"The latest Drought Monitor map shows for Mar. 4, "Dry conditions dominated much of the West and especially the Southwest and into the Plains."

Extreme to exceptional drought conditions are seen across 57% and 90% of the land in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, and diminishing snowpack could jeopardize drinking water for tens of millions of people from Denver to Los Angeles."

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Salmonchaser]

Well a month ago I commented it was going to be easy to get into the Blues for spring bear as our snow pack was so light. Now at 154%. I’ll be lucky to get any fire wood cut this year before going to Alaska. It hasn’t snowed in several days, just barely getting above freezing at my elevation (3500 ft.) during the day. This stuff is going to hang around.
Scary looking at some other areas of the mountain west.

 

[Irrelevant]

This has been one of the wetter and snowier years for the mountains around here. However, it's been a really low snow year at the house, we just rarely got the combo of cold enough and precip here in the valleys.

Not to hijacks this thread too far, but due to WA proximity to the ocean, our climate the weather are generally less extreme than in the rockies or east. So while a 150% normal may not by that unusual in MT or WY or CO, it is very uncommon in WA.

 

[Oak]

We got 0.2" of rain last night, which gives us 0.9" of precip for the calendar year. It was glorious.

 

[TOGIE]

colorado is about to get smacked with a classic upslope snow event - which is a low pressure system that settles south of colorado and swirls moisture up the eastern slopes of our mountains while a cold front pushes in. sounds like model confidence has been getting better and better by the day. northern colorado front range foothills are expected to be seeing anywhere from like 24-60 inches or more in some areas by sunday evening.

unfortunately colorado upslope events only hammer the foothills and everything east, main mountains won't see nearly as much.

about half of the watershed that matters most to my organization will see massive benefit from this. the rest of the state's mountains will benefit, but not massively.

we haven't had a spring style snow storm with forecasted totals like this since 2003

 

[marksjeep]

2003 was a disaster.

Most of the basins are down into the 80% range (SWE). Snowdance for the mountains. This should help the SP a bit in that regard.

 

[mdeerjunkie]

colorado is about to get smacked with a classic upslope snow event - which is a low pressure system that settles south of colorado and swirls moisture up the eastern slopes of our mountains while a cold front pushes in. sounds like model confidence has been getting better and better by the day. northern colorado front range foothills are expected to be seeing anywhere from like 24-60 inches or more in some areas by sunday evening.

unfortunately colorado upslope events only hammer the foothills and everything east, main mountains won't see nearly as much.

about half of the watershed that matters most to my organization will see massive benefit from this. the rest of the state's mountains will benefit, but not massively.

we haven't had a spring style snow storm with forecasted totals like this since 2003


View attachment 176799

Its looking like with the warmer temps-(in the low to mid thirties), that it will be a pretty wet snow too. It's good. Colorado needs the moisture, bad.

 

[jbseamus83]

Well, we are finally getting a little bit of rain here in northern UT. It wont be as much as is needed, but at this point, anything is better than the incredibly dry conditions we've been having. Crossing fingers that some of this will continue for a while.

 

[hank4elk]

Just drove up over Mangas and down through Slaughter Mesa , past Quemado Lake and back home. Would not have been able to get thru normally. Very little snow for March. Road rutted rough usual with snow patches across road still. Never needed 4x either.

 

[huntin24/7]

My wife is hoping to burn her 8 lope points in central Wyoming this year. Hopefully conditions improve. Anyone know how good and drought conditions are in that riverton-Casper general area?

 

[BuzzH]

My wife is hoping to burn her 8 lope points in central Wyoming this year. Hopefully conditions improve. Anyone know how good and drought conditions are in that riverton-Casper general area?

Casper just got the second most snow in a single snowfall on record last week...over 2 feet.

Laramie/Cheyenne/Casper area got absolutely throttled.

 

[huntin24/7]

Casper just got the second most snow in a single snowfall on record last week...over 2 feet.

Laramie/Cheyenne/Casper area got absolutely throttled.

Awesome. Thanks buzz. It’s always nice to know the critters have decent conditions and might grow a few big ones.

 

[SO7mm]

The Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge in California has low water problems. The USFWS has developed a draft Environmental Assessment for the refuge. Alternative C is to lease water rights from private owners with 1- to 5-year agreements...cost would be
$~4-6 million for 30,000 acre feet of water/year

That's interesting. That refuge has been in bad shape for a while now with all the different water users getting first crack. The Klamath River Salmon population is still crashing so they will be wanting as much water as possible going down the river. They lost 60,000 ducks to botulism last year so I'm sure they're in desperation mode to get some more water on the refuge.

 

[SO7mm]

The Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge in California has low water problems. The USFWS has developed a draft Environmental Assessment for the refuge. Alternative C is to lease water rights from private owners with 1- to 5-year agreements...cost would be
$~4-6 million for 30,000 acre feet of water/year.

Looks like they may not have the water to lease this year.

Tensions rise in water battle along Oregon-California line

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — One of the worst droughts in memory in a massive agricultural region straddling the California-Oregon border could mean steep cuts to irrigation water for hundreds of farmers this summer to sustain endangered fish species critical to local tribes.

apnews.com