COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[MTGomer]

Friday we were told we COULD work from home if we wanted and were able to.

Last night security sent out an email that says we MUST work from home unless we are a critical employee to keeping the lights on.

I’m writing an easement next to my pool right now.

 

[406dn]

Does anyone expect COVID-19 to kill more people this year than the flu did last year? Seems to me we are taking extreme blanket measures to protect people who have a compromised immune system (mainly the elderly). Couldn't we accomplish the same thing by have those compromised individuals be the ones to self quarantine or social distance? Not sure why we have to shut down every event known to man and cripple the world economy..

Look to Italy for your answer. The hospitals will be overwhelmed. Lots of collateral damage to many people with other ailments or disease.

 

[rmauch20]

I am a bit more positive in my outlook more than the flu last year or even this year maybe, 1.5-2.5 million not likely. I think people are throwing those numbers around and attempt to scare people into compliance. If the government came out and said 10,000 people were going to die I don’t think people would really give a hoot, they say 2 million that gets your attention. The negative side of that is it also begins to drive panic which is currently the state were in.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I am a bit more positive in my outlook more than the flu last year or even this year maybe, 1.5-2.5 million not likely. I think people are throwing those numbers around and attempt to scare people into compliance. If the government came out and said 10,000 people were going to die I don’t think people would really give a hoot, they say 2 million that gets your attention. The negative side of that is it also begins to drive panic which is currently the state were in.

None of us can predict the future, but it would good if those who disagree with the math others are providing would provide some of their own? For example, do you expect it to have a lower infectivity rate that influenza? A lower death rate? If so, what are those rates and where is your data coming. Just, "I don't buy it" is not helpful, fact based or science based.

 

[LWC55]

None of us can predict the future, but it would good if those who disagree with the math others are providing would provide some of their own? For example, do you expect it to have a lower infectivity rate that influenza? A lower death rate? If so, what are those rates and where is your data coming. Just, "I don't buy it" is not helpful, fact based or science based.

Why we are on the subject of numbers. What numbers are we getting? Are only confirmed positive covid-19 test results being reported? That will make the death rates much, much, much higher. With the flu death rates, they use the estimated number of people with the flu, not just the ones that are confirmed positive.

 

[rmauch20]

None of us can predict the future, but it would good if those who disagree with the math others are providing would provide some of their own? For example, do you expect it to have a lower infectivity rate that influenza? A lower death rate? If so, what are those rates and where is your data coming. Just, "I don't buy it" is not helpful, fact based or science based.

I will keep this brief so this thread doesn’t turn into the train wreck like the other one was. I think the data we currently have is extremely lacking and flawed. This is such a fluid situation but if I run a projection of the numbers I have currently it’ll probably be very different by this afternoon. My opinion is based off the last four months of this virus and other information sources.
For the sake of everyone I hope I’m right and you’re wrong. I think the so-called experts are doing the best they can with the information they have so I don’t fault him for trying. Junk in=junk out.
As for math you can look at the past two months has virus has been out there and currently where we are at to work it out.

 

[VikingsGuy]

for the sake of everyone I hope I’m right and you’re wrong.

On this we completely agree!

 

[Trial153]

So post up the non flawed date. Go head we are waiting. This thread is about sharing the information as we find it. If you have better we are all ears.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Why we are on the subject of numbers. What numbers are we getting? Are only confirmed positive covid-19 test results being reported? That will make the death rates much, much, much higher. With the flu death rates, they use the estimated number of people with the flu, not just the ones that are confirmed positive.

I know MN is reporting both confirmed and negatives and some via random screening to get better “survey” look. I can’t speak to all the others.

 

[Trial153]

todays numbers from Italy.....more on the same numbers. Sobering to say the least

Coronavirus Update (Live): 97,859,856 Cases and 2,093,581 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[rmauch20]

So post up the non flawed date. Go head we are waiting. This thread is about sharing the information as we find it. If you have better we are all ears.

I wish I had super source. I don’t. I’m having to sift through the massive amount of information like everybody else and come to my own conclusion.I’m all for sharing information as long as everyone can keep the context of that information.
Junk in =junk out Applies to more then just dialing riflescopes.

 

[LWC55]

I know MN is reporting both confirmed and negatives and some via random screening to get better “survey” look. I can’t speak to all the others.

But only people who likely have it or think they have it are currently being tested. That greatly inflates the figures.

 

[Paul in Idaho]

Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate. We need to reach out to everyone with words that inform, but not inflame. We need to encourage everyone to prepare, but not panic.

-- Michael Leavitt, Secretary of Health and Human Services, during the 2007 Pandemic Influenza Leadership Forum in Washington, DC

Source: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...rs-community-leaders-ideas-pandemic-readiness

Leavitt recently participated in a discussion about COVID-19, which you can listen to or read at https://www.npr.org/2020/03/13/8155...what-government-agencies-should-do-for-covid-

 

[ignorethefringes]

Does anyone expect COVID-19 to kill more people this year than the flu did last year? Seems to me we are taking extreme blanket measures to protect people who have a compromised immune system (mainly the elderly). Couldn't we accomplish the same thing by have those compromised individuals be the ones to self quarantine or social distance? Not sure why we have to shut down every event known to man and cripple the world economy..

This needs to be posted again

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[Trial153]

I wish I had super source. I don’t. I’m having to sift through the massive amount of information like everybody else and come to my own conclusion.I’m all for sharing information as long as everyone can keep the context of that information.
Junk in =junk out Applies to more then just dialing riflescopes.

excellent, let us know your credentials and skill set that so we can weight you opinions and data vs say the CDC or an epidemiologist.

For example, I am paramedic for 60 hours a week and rest of the week I trade equities. In the fall I am bum that bow hunts about 6 to 8 weeks. Basically I know Jack shit about pandemics, but have decent handle on emergency medicine , and can generally make some money in the market. I am sticking with the experts for information while hoping they are wrong. Sometimes when decisions have to be made and forced to put the best junk into the equation because ...well that is all you have.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

 

[Elkmagnet]

This needs to be posted again

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Agreed.
social distancing isn't about trying to stop a disease its about trying to slow the spread to a pace that hospitals can keep up with and not have to let people die. If hospitals become full the death rate will spike.
Without a control study we will never know how bad it would have been to do nothing.

 

[npaden]

It is interesting to see that Italy is about to overtake China on COVID-19 deaths.

I know some of China's reporting has been a little suspect, but they seemed to have done a good job with their quarantine.

Italy may be the perfect example of the worst case scenario with not really even an attempt at a quarantine or social distancing, a bit outdated health care system to start with, and a much older population than a developing country.

 

[Trial153]

Current US numbers .

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[LWC55]

Agreed.
social distancing isn't about trying to stop a disease its about trying to slow the spread to a pace that hospitals can keep up with and not have to let people die. If hospitals become full the death rate will spike.
Without a control study we will never know how bad it would have been to do nothing.

So no matter what happens, our media and government will have saved the world!