Covid-19 - Emerging treatment news thread (no politics, no tin foil hats)

[jryoung]

The USS Roosevelt had a crew of around 4,800. Around 600 tested positive, and around 60% that had it showed no symptoms. 5 hospitalized and one death. This appears to demonstrate that the risk to young people is fairly low. Schools and sports leagues should be able to open.

Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.

www.reuters.com

Young AND relatively healthy as I would assume most in the military are fit.

That said, schools are a strong vector, and asymptomatic children coming home to at risk family members is a risk that needs to be assessed.

If you watch the Dr. Katz video above he notes that it wasn't the best choice for colleges and universities to send their students home creating a dispersion of potential infection.

 

[JLS]

If you watch the Dr. Katz video above he notes that it wasn't the best choice for colleges and universities to send their students home creating a dispersion of potential infection.

My best friends son attends MSU in Bozeman. Apparently they considered skipping spring break and keeping the students there for online classes.

 

[Rainer]

In order to find a vaccine they still need to test more people in the population. With people not following basic State guidelines you could actually see this mutate before a vaccine is produced.

 

[Bigjay73]

In order to find a vaccine they still need to test more people in the population. With people not following basic State guidelines you could actually see this mutate before a vaccine is produced.


View attachment 137002

I'm afraid that with the 12-18 month timeline that is projected to produce a vaccine, that's going to happen regardless of people not following or following guidelines. Hope I'm wrong, but time will tell.

 

[jryoung]

In order to find a vaccine they still need to test more people in the population. With people not following basic State guidelines you could actually see this mutate before a vaccine is produced.


View attachment 137002

We should be investing in vaccine development, but adjusting mitigation to live in a world that won't develop one.

 

[3855WIN]

Young AND relatively healthy as I would assume most in the military are fit.

That said, schools are a strong vector, and asymptomatic children coming home to at risk family members is a risk that needs to be assessed.

If you watch the Dr. Katz video above he notes that it wasn't the best choice for colleges and universities to send their students home creating a dispersion of potential infection.

I’ve looked and found nothing that says children have given the Rona to adults. Not saying it hasn’t happened, but it hasn’t been documented.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I’ve looked and found nothing that says children have given the Rona to adults. Not saying it hasn’t happened, but it hasn’t been documented.

Lot's of stuff on that in Italy, were the initial attempts to isolate only the elderly while youth still aggregated resulted in very high transfer to elderly in a culture where 3 generation households are common.

 

[3855WIN]

Lot's of stuff on that in Italy, were the initial attempts to isolate only the elderly while youth still aggregated resulted in very high transfer to elderly in a culture where 3 generation households are common.

Or it could be that Italy has the second oldest population.
You very well may be right, but I find no articles that say children have passed it along to elderly. I’ve read a few articles that guess that is the case.

 

[jryoung]

You won't find any articles relating to children at this point, it doesn't matter, all carriers can spread it. Children even worse because of a lack of awareness. It's well documented that SARS Cov-2 has a high contagion rate.

That said, since Americans are vastly unhealthy the risk factor goes up just like Italy.

Italy has an older population, we have an obese, hypertensive, and diabetic one.

 

[LWC55]

Good discussion of antibody testing and more from Stanford Dr. John Ioannidis

 

[huronmtns]

 

[schmalts]

I'm afraid that with the 12-18 month timeline that is projected to produce a vaccine, that's going to happen regardless of people not following or following guidelines. Hope I'm wrong, but time will tell.

I read it has mutated several times already but the mutation is very slight. They were able to tell what part of the country was infected by Wuhan VS Germany etc.. According to that source the mutation would probably still make one vaccine cover all strains because it was such a slight mutation. Can't find the article at the moment but it was a pretty good source, not a news source. It said something about that the virus has no need to mutate big because it has no trouble finding a free ride at this time.
As far as grade and high schools go, JMO it would be suicide at this point in the game to open the doors to those little germ bags. Elderly people are getting this without ever leaving their bedroom and getting it by a careful visitor. Snot nosed kids that do not understand the scope of this problem are the last people to turn loose. I understand parents are tired of playing teacher and day care but the reality is we are not ready for that type of infection rate yet or we will be starting over in a lot of areas.

 

[Bigjay73]

Good to hear. I read today that they may have found that its mutating to a less lethal version, which I understood as the normal path of viruses. Guess even a virus is smart enough to know that if you kill your host, you're screwed. I agree with you on opening schools and the such

 

[LWC55]

The chart used by Dr. Birx during the reopening press conference last week. She said the first red peak this year was flu A, the second flu B, and the third is
c-19. Interesting

 

[huronmtns]

 

[rmauch20]

Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds

Hundreds of thousands of L.A. County residents may have been infected with the coronavirus by early April, outpacing total of known cases, report says.

www.latimes.com

“The mortality rate is based on the number of confirmed infections; the higher the number of infections, the lower the fatality rate. Both studies estimated a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%, which is closer to the death rate associated with the seasonal flu.”

LOL!!!!!!!

 

[brockel]

 

[Little Canyon Creek]

Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds

Hundreds of thousands of L.A. County residents may have been infected with the coronavirus by early April, outpacing total of known cases, report says.

www.latimes.com

“The mortality rate is based on the number of confirmed infections; the higher the number of infections, the lower the fatality rate. Both studies estimated a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%, which is closer to the death rate associated with the seasonal flu.”

LOL!!!!!!!

I would be careful of drawing too many conclusions from this article. They are using the number or people who tested positive in the antibody test to determine the fatality rate. I don't see where the article indicates anything about the sensitivity or the false positive rate of the antibody test they used. Both of these are important factors and can really skew results when the amount of infection found in the community is low. This is due to Bayes' theorem, which has a lengthy wikipedia article. I think an easier to understand explanation is the figures below. The sensitivity and false positive rates were taken from news reports a couple weeks ago about the antibody test that was being developed. I don't know if the same test was used in this study, so the sensitivity and false positive rates may be different. But what these figures do show is that depending on the level of true infection found in the community, you can get wildly different ratios of detected true infections to false positives. This becomes more important when the true level of infection is a small percentage of the population. For instance, in the left figure the observed rate of infection is 5% whereas the true rate of infection is actually 1%. For the right figure the observed rate of infection is 13% whereas the true rate is 10%. So the error is significantly higher at lower levels of infection, and does so in such a way that it overestimates the number of people who have become infected by this virus. And the LA Times article states that 4% of people tested positive for antibodies, which falls in the category of low levels of exposure where the observed positives is likely much higher than the true positives. Of course, the caveat is that we don't know how good the antibody test they used for the study is. If they used a better antibody test with a much, much lower false positive rate, this would be less of a problem.



Full disclosure, these are figures my friend who has a PhD in biochemistry made and then shared on Twitter for others to use. I am an organic chemist and we seldom if ever use statistics, so I was only useful as a clueless sounding board in the attempt to make easily understandable figures.

 

[Trial153]

As you can read the Santa Clara study is full of holes.

Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we thought, small antibody study suggests

Between 50 and 85 times as many people in Santa Clara County have coronavirus antibodies as have tested positive for the virus.

www.livescience.com

 

[Trial153]

Fox Article on the administration's miracle drug

COVID-19 treatment hydroxychloroquine showed no benefit, more deaths in VA virus study

Malaria drug hydroxychloroquine showed no benefit in a large study of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals, researchers say.

www.foxnews.com