Bigjay73
Well-known member
Yeah, I know, just wishful thinking.
Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION
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MinnesotaHunter
Well-known member
We are not even close. Think summertime....
Bigjay73
Well-known member
That I cant agree with. I'm thinking end of this month. Not arguing, just honestly cant see that happening. Have you seen some reports that come to that conclusion?
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I mean those idiots in Maryland just put shelter in place orders in place... New Yorkers are flocking to Florida in droves (as they do) and Louisiana is... well... Louisiana.
So yeah...
MinnesotaHunter
Well-known member
Yes. My job has me pretty engaged in looking at the pandemic. In the big scheme of things it is better if this lasts longer. Social Distancing, etc will likely not have a much of an effect on the cumulative infection rate, but will serve to stretch it out over time creating three positive dynamics that will lessen the overall deaths:
1. less people hospitalized at any given time
2. allows time for increasing supportive care capacity
3. allows time for improvements in supportive care treatments
Based on what I have seen, I would suggest we will start to see our hospital system stressed nationally in about 30-45 days... "Flattening the curve" is not about trying to send the infection rate back down, it is about buying time...
Bigjay73
Well-known member
Jesus, reality is a mother.
Bigjay73
Well-known member
We could just dynamite Florida and Louisiana into their own islands. Would we miss either?
MinnesotaHunter
Well-known member
Yup....Just be glad you aren't in the Congo, 10% fatality rate there so far, and they are just getting started in Africa...
The Hedgehog
Well-known member
I’m considered by others to have ridiculous high optimism. But I’m not gonna lie- end of this month is something more than ridiculous. I’m hoping by July 4 I can visit my favorite brewery and stay in the best USFS cabin in the area (which I have reserved). I’m thinking optimistically that my odds are 50-50. I do think there’s good chances (80-90%) provided I have a job still, that I’ll be headed to Arizona to hunt antelope in September.
To recap - end of this month? DREAM ON.
Only 4 hours to go!
BuzzH
Well-known member
I agree end of April is a pipe dream. I have a fishing trip planned the end of August on Kodiak...80% odds of that happening is my guess.
Bigjay73
Well-known member
I was thinking top of the curve by the end of the month, not out of the water. I was looking at Italy's stats. Looks like their first death was 2 weeks before ours, and they may be on the downward slope. I was hoping we would trend the same in 2 weeks or so
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God will destroy these people
He is taking his sweet time about because this has been going to for a long as there has been commerce, people and food.
I sugesst god stops the churches in this country from gathering awhile, so the congregating people dont infect other people.
Southern Elk
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Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms | CNN
There's a lot about Iceland that other countries could envy: Its spectacular natural surroundings, its place among the world's happiest countries, and, now, its large-scale testing for the novel coronavirus, which could influence how the world understands the outbreak.
I hope we start to see a downturn soon. This image kind of suggests the same regarding Italy. Hopefully it is a result of less actual cases and not just less testing.
Bigjay73
Well-known member
I've read a few articles this morning that predict we top out around april 15th with around 2000 deaths that day. Time will tell
Bigjay73
Well-known member
Daily deaths may have started downward as well hopefully
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Covid19 yet to impact Europe’s overall mortality
The official figures for 24 countries across Europe show, not only that overall mortality is not increasing, but – so far – it is actually well below recent averages. The statistics wer…
off-guardian.org
The official figures for 24 countries across Europe show, not only that overall mortality is not increasing, but – so far – it is actually well below recent averages.
The article source may not be the most trustworthy but very interesting if true. So please take with a grain of salt.
They do show the source for their data which seems to corroborate the conclusions.
History
The overall objective of the original European Mortality Monitoring Project was to design a routine public health mortality monitoring system aimed at detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries.
Since 2009 the system has been in operation and is continuously being applied in countries that meet the minimal requirements.
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