Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

[BuzzH]

"Good morning. Strange world we now live in. I remain working. I will continue to until I'm shut down or quarantined. If you would prefer to cancel or push back our scheduled time i only ask you give me as much heads up as possible. I greatly appreciate your buisness"



That's the text i sent scheduled customers Monday. I trusted that my customers were adults and capable of making decisions for themselves. The government will not be there to pack sheetrock for me, nor to pay me when it's complete.

The issue so many are making are emotional. Similar to using the crying mom whose child was shot in gun law meetings, or the young man in a wheelchair at DUI meetings.

Some, try to play a game in which we pretend money(the economy) don't matter. "If it saves just one life".

Life is 100% about risk assessment. We could nearly end ALL traffic deaths by simply mandating cars not travel faster than 10mph. Yet we don't.

Our friends on the left are correct, we could end ALL gun deaths by irradicatingall guns. Yet we don't.

My father in law busted his hump as a truck driver, and then in a food warehouse. He doesn't have a nice STATE retirement. He doesn't have a Fed retirement. He has only the money he saved via 401k/Roth.

I point this out because he, with diabetes and pushing 70 is who we are "protecting" by crashing the economy. He was in good shape money wise Now not so much. And continuing down this blind path we are on Will leave him SEEKING EMPLOYMENT. At 70. With a worn out body from decades of labor. During a pandemic which kills his group at higher numbers. He will eventually be forced out of retirement.

It's childish and silly to read grown men, whom seem thoughtful and intelligent on the vast array of subjects in this forum, offer up such emotional, dramatic fluff on this subject.

IT IS NOT offering anyone up as "cannon fodder" to suggest the cure is worse than the disease.

This country promised seniors social security. The money is gone. The ponzi scheme left is based on younger generations paying the freight. We are not doing so now.

Like others I agree this will pass. But what will be left is an entire generation of seniors who we "protected" that are forced to reenter the job market in order to survive. A working age generation so badly damaged economically they will simply walk away, leaving bankruptcies everywhere in their wake. And a generation of teens, kids, and unborn who will never know anything other than crushing interest rates, lower life expectancy, and economic despair.


The real conversation unfortunately needs to be a life vs a life. Trading the next generations life's for one's today is exactly what we are doing today.

The folks in here who blindly believe their retirements and pensions will be paid in a depression are in for a shock. Those who think we will flip a switch and the economy will roar back, are devoid of any common sense.

You CANNOT borrow your way to prosperity.

ALL DEBTS ARE PAID.

There is a real reckoning coming. There is going to be a very serious conversation around APRIL 30.

People absolutely will die. Both from the disease and the cure.

Time is rapidly coming to address risk assessment. Time for the adults to enter the room

You're not posting shit like his based on pure emotion?

Got it...hypocrite.

Like lots of things I see posted on controversial and tough subjects, true colors are exposed...and yours are shining quite brightly.

 

[LWC55]

Easy guys...

 

[rmauch20]

A record 6.6M Americans file for unemployment benefits as coronavirus wreaks havoc on economy

The number of Americans filing jobless claims rose to 6.6 million last week. Some economists expect tens of millions of layoffs in the next couple of months.

www.usatoday.com

“Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist of Oxford Economics, expects a total 22 million job losses by May, pushing the historically low 3.5% unemployment rate to 12%, before the outbreak eases and the economy and labor market begin to revive. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis predicts as many as 47 million layoffs and a mind-boggling 32% jobless rate, higher than the 25% rate during the Great Depression.”

On the low end 22 million is a lot of lives flipped upside down. Those 22 million are gonna have to budget their $1200 very effectively.
If it gets to 32% Unemployment and 47 million layoffs, God help us. When we get to this point it would be interesting to ask those people if they thought it was worth it.

 

[BuzzH]

A record 6.6M Americans file for unemployment benefits as coronavirus wreaks havoc on economy

The number of Americans filing jobless claims rose to 6.6 million last week. Some economists expect tens of millions of layoffs in the next couple of months.

www.usatoday.com

“Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist of Oxford Economics, expects a total 22 million job losses by May, pushing the historically low 3.5% unemployment rate to 12%, before the outbreak eases and the economy and labor market begin to revive. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis predicts as many as 47 million layoffs and a mind-boggling 32% jobless rate, higher than the 25% rate during the Great Depression.”

On the low end 22 million is a lot of lives flipped upside down. Those 22 million are gonna have to budget their $1200 very effectively.
If it gets to 32% Unemployment and 47 million layoffs, God help us. If we get to this point would be interesting to ask those people if they thought it was worth it.

Well, yeah, $1200 plus weekly unemployment...forget about that out of convenience to sensationalize your hyperbole?

Some people should start getting an extra $600 in unemployment benefits this week. Here's what you need to know if you're applying.

When you'll see the extra $600 in your unemployment checks will vary by state, but some states should be disbursing the additional funds this week.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[MTGomer]

It’s an inconvenient reality.
If the current path continues indefinitely (and that’s a big if) somebody is going to have to figure out how many lives lost from Covid 19 are equivalent to lives lost from suicide, addiction, Etc, all of which conclusively and irrefutably soar in times of economic hardship. Throw in mortgage defaults, retirement savings, education savings lost etc, and it becomes complicated.

In my opinion, one life is worth more than one other person’s livelihood.

Are 300 million people’s livelihoods and well beings worth less than say a million people’s lives?
I don’t know and I’m glad I’m not the one that has to figure that out, but if this isn’t trending sharply downward in a few months, some minds a lot brighter than ours are going to have to think hard about that.

 

[rmauch20]

Well, yeah, $1200 plus weekly unemployment...forget about that out of convenience to sensationalize your hyperbole?

Some people should start getting an extra $600 in unemployment benefits this week. Here's what you need to know if you're applying.

When you'll see the extra $600 in your unemployment checks will vary by state, but some states should be disbursing the additional funds this week.

www.businessinsider.com

Please buzz tell me where is the unemployment money comes from. Because it seems like we’re handing it out like it’s growing on a treeDon’t act so stupid as to think that the 2.2 trillion isn’t gonna come due later. I would’ve never thought you would’ve been one of those it’s free money types but whatever gets you bye.

 

[LWC55]

This looks to be about a week old. Hopefully more citizen "reporters" will do updates. Because what the media and medical community says isn't always the truth.

 

[JLS]

It’s an inconvenient reality.
If the current path continues indefinitely (and that’s a big if) somebody is going to have to figure out how many lives lost from Covid 19 are equivalent to lives lost from suicide, addiction, Etc, all of which conclusively and irrefutably soar in times of economic hardship. Throw in mortgage defaults, retirement savings, education savings lost etc, and it becomes complicated.

In my opinion, one life is worth more than one other person’s livelihood.

Are 300 million people’s livelihoods and well beings worth less than say a million people’s lives?
I don’t know and I’m glad I’m not the one that has to figure that out, but if this isn’t trending sharply downward in a few months, some minds a lot brighter than ours are going to have to think hard about that.

We can’t necessarily assume the economy would thrive if we didn’t have the stay at home orders in place. A recession/depression might be an inevitable outcome regardless of how many lives are saved or lost.

Edit: I see @rmauch20 thinks this is funny. This is the same guy who claims to desire objective conversation, dodges questions he's asked, and then claims he's being baited into a strawman. If you honestly desire objective conversation, which I still doubt, please explain how the economy would remain vibrant while bodies are being stacked like cordwood in reefer cars? When supply chains from around the world are incredibly disrupted? When public health systems are overwhelmed? The recession/depression (I don't profess to know which it will be) IMO would have only been momentarily delayed and not prevented.

 

[VikingsGuy]

This looks to be about a week old. Hopefully more citizen "reporters" will do updates. Because what the media and medical community says isn't always the truth.

This makes my head hurt. There is no conspiracy to trick you into social distancing.

 

[BuzzH]

Please buzz tell me where is the unemployment money comes from. Because it seems like we’re handing it out like it’s growing on a treeDon’t act so stupid as to think that the 2.2 trillion isn’t gonna come due later. I would’ve never thought you would’ve been one of those it’s free money types but whatever gets you bye.

Please tell me that you, the smartest guy in the room, always, would have figured out what unemployment is supposed to do, how its funded, and how it works.

Hint: Unemployment Insurance. Its not "free money". Unemployment is paid by employers. Employers must report and pay federal unemployment tax (FUTA) for each covered employee.

Another hint: Its a safety net when people are out of work due to no fault of their own.

Sounds about like what it was intended for, situations just like this, wouldn't you agree?

This thing is going to come to end, people will get back to work...and the safety nets that guys like you whine about, which are part of your conditions of employment, will work in the next couple months while we get over the hump. Testing for ant-bodies is going to happen, a vaccine is going to happen, immunity is going to happen.

 

[rmauch20]

Please tell me that you, the smartest guy in the room, always, would have figured out what unemployment is supposed to do, how its funded, and how it works.

Hint: Unemployment Insurance. Its not "free money". Unemployment is paid by employers. Employers must report and pay federal unemployment tax (FUTA) for each covered employee.

Another hint: Its a safety net when people are out of work due to no fault of their own.

Sounds about like what it was intended for, situations just like this, wouldn't you agree?

This thing is going to come to end, people will get back to work...and the safety nets that guys like you whine about, which are part of your conditions of employment, will work in the next couple months while we get over the hump. Testing for ant-bodies is going to happen, a vaccine is going to happen, immunity is going to happen.

Would these be the same employers who are currently shutdown?

 

[Treeshark]

I hate to even wade into what this thread has turned in to, but-

A company has to pay state and federal unemployment insurance “fees” for employees each year, whether they are used or not. This fee gets to be less and less for the company as the years go by if claims are not made. When claims do get made, the fees increase again.

Carry on

 

[BuzzH]

Would these be the same employers who are currently shutdown?

They already paid the FUTA, so are those that are still working...

 

[ImBillT]

Not much data here. Plenty of emotion and opinion thou.

I will say for those who have a "STATE" or "Fed" retirement, they earned it every bit as much as your father in law earned his 401k Roth.

They earned it. He never said they didn’t. The difference is that those with state and federal retirements are not loosing theirs right now. Everyone else is.

 

[BuzzH]

The difference is that those with state and federal retirements are not loosing theirs right now. Everyone else is.

Really? Where did you hear that? Probably from somebody that doesn't have a clue how State and Federal retirement systems work...

 

[hossblur]

Not much data here. Plenty of emotion and opinion thou.

I will say for those who have a "STATE" or "Fed" retirement, they earned it every bit as much as your father in law earned his 401k Roth.

More emotion. It's not a matter of earned, it's a matter of funding.

We can hand all the dollars in the world to the gov pensions. In fact it's been done. Weimar Republic they used wheelbarrows.
Sure hope that FED you are counting on has the funds. Same as the STATE.

Do you believe there is some money tree somewhere? A money fairy?

No one is buying our bonds. We are simply printing monopoly money.

Those pensions will be paid with monopoly money.

Is that what you worked hard to earn?

 

[VikingsGuy]

They earned it. He never said they didn’t. The difference is that those with state and federal retirements are not loosing theirs right now. Everyone else is.

Just to take some hyperbole out of the 401k panic:

A. If you haven't sold shares you haven't lost anything
B. If you are retired or near retirement you should already have multiple years of expected draw in treasuries or other safe assets so you can allow you equities to rebound, so no realized loss if you set up your investments correctly.
C. The S&P500 is still above it's Dec 20, 2018 value and above anytime in history prior to Sept 2017, so let's not overstate the "losses" yet.

 

[VikingsGuy]

More emotion. It's not a matter of earned, it's a matter of funding.

We can hand all the dollars in the world to the gov pensions. In fact it's been done. Weimar Republic they used wheelbarrows.
Sure hope that FED you are counting on has the funds. Same as the STATE.

Do you believe there is some money tree somewhere? A money fairy?

No one is buying our bonds. We are simply printing monopoly money.

Those pensions will be paid with monopoly money.

Is that what you worked hard to earn?

A super dated and overly simplistic view of how QE and other fed techniques work.

 

[hossblur]

You're not posting shit like his based on pure emotion?

Got it...hypocrite.

Like lots of things I see posted on controversial and tough subjects, true colors are exposed...and yours are shining quite brightly.

What's yours?

A lifelong public employee may have tons of theories about the economy, but zero practical knowledge.

Do a little homework. How's those 30yr bond auctions going?

ALL DEBTS ARE PAID.

 

[hossblur]

Just to take some hyperbole out of the 401k panic:

A. If you haven't sold shares you haven't lost anything
B. If you are retired or near retirement you should already have multiple years of expected draw in treasuries or other safe assets so you can allow you equities to rebound, so no realized loss if you set up your investments correctly.
C. The S&P500 is still above it's Dec 20, 2018 value and above anytime in history prior to Sept 2017, so let's not overstate the "losses" yet.

If your living on those shares, you lost it.