Colorado points question.

[Papsqueeg]

I have 8 points for elk and 11 for mule deer. I keep purchasing points, and I am waiting to see what happens for archery draw results. I’m going third season otc this year. I really don’t know what to do. I have enough points to go in the unit I have been hunting. I am trying to save up for a better quality unit but, with 2028 point changes now, I’m on edge of what to do. Any advice would be appreciated. I guess my question is, should I keep accumulating my points or burn my points up before the 2028 change? Also, otc for nonresident is at risk to be eliminated. TIA Dan

 

[TOGIE]

those odds of finding that giant buck get bit smaller with every passing year if you ask me.

 

[seeth07]

You are in elk no man's land unfortunately. I just don't see a significant difference from 4 to 6 point elk hunts in CO and 8 to 12. Especially when you consider that 3 of those hunts could happen to the single 12 point hunt. Not much point creep hitting those Lower point units like those beyond 10 as well.

As far as deer, get a tag now. You have enough points for a very fun hunt

 

[COEngineer]

Did you post the exact same thing in two different forums?

 

[Papsqueeg]

Did you post the exact same thing in two different forums? View attachment 366310

Yes accidentally

 

[KRH]

This is just anecdotal, but I’ve hunted OTC archery units and 5-7 point units for non res archery and couldn’t tell the difference. I’d burn EM and get back in the pool

Can’t speak as much on deer

 

[JAG]

On the flip side, your chances of chasing a glory hunt where you are five or points away from getting any time soon will improve after 2028 with the draw changes.

Some will disagree, because the move won't be by much. At the very least, you will go from no chance due to point creep to 'you mean there's a chance?!'

 

[bmontang]

I have 8 points for elk and 11 for mule deer. I keep purchasing points, and I am waiting to see what happens for archery draw results. I’m going third season otc this year. I really don’t know what to do. I have enough points to go in the unit I have been hunting. I am trying to save up for a better quality unit but, with 2028 point changes now, I’m on edge of what to do. Any advice would be appreciated. I guess my question is, should I keep accumulating my points or burn my points up before the 2028 change? Also, otc for nonresident is at risk to be eliminated. TIA Dan

My group is in a similar predicament with elk and we are trying to decide wth to do. We are leaning toward burning them in 2027. Mostly because that is the first year the full group can make it for sure. We have a mix of older guys (dads/uncles) and younger guys (sons/nephews) and the dang sons/nephews group keep having children or getting married. I love having a grandson, but he need to grow up quick and come to camp.

 

[JAG]

I heard a podcast the other day where these two CO guides said that the more points you have in the 2028 draw, the better the opportunity you have to draw a tag for that unit.

Their example: 5 allocated tags left for nonresidents in the 50% random draw. You don't draw in the preference point round, but you have 5 points. They said your name will go into the hat five (5) times until that unit's allocation runs out. If you only have one point and don't get drawn in the first round, then you're out.

This does not sound accurate, My impression is that the random draw is what it is. Can anyone fact-check this, please?

 

[trb]

I heard a podcast the other day where these two CO guides said that the more points you have in the 2028 draw, the better the opportunity you have to draw a tag for that unit.

Their example: 5 allocated tags left for nonresidents in the 50% random draw. You don't draw in the preference point round, but you have 5 points. They said your name will go into the hat five (5) times until that unit's allocation runs out. If you only have one point and don't get drawn in the first round, then you're out.

This does not sound accurate, My impression is that the random draw is what it is. Can anyone fact-check this, please?

WebsiteFINALDrawChanges.pdf

cpw.widen.net

 

[JAG]

WebsiteFINALDrawChanges.pdf

cpw.widen.net

That was fast, and I appreciate that.

The final changes don't elaborate on the mechanics of the bonus draw for the 'lesser' (not M, S, G) big game species.

Draw Type - Split Draw​

● A split draw methodology will be used in the Primary Draw for all deer, elk,​

bear, pronghorn, and turkey licenses. The quota for each hunt code will be​

divided 50/50, with half of the quota going to a preference point draw, and​

half going to a bonus draw. If the quota cannot be evenly split, the extra​

license will go to the preference point draw.​

​

My safe assumption seems to have merit unless someone on the inside can advise how it will work. So far, it appears to be a single, random draw with no recognition of who leaves the pot or no incremental benefit of additional rounds for those with more points.

TRB: Did you see something in that link I missed?

 

[TOGIE]

That was fast, and I appreciate that.

The final changes don't elaborate on the mechanics of the bonus draw for the 'lesser' (not M, S, G) big game species.

Draw Type - Split Draw​

● A split draw methodology will be used in the Primary Draw for all deer, elk,​

bear, pronghorn, and turkey licenses. The quota for each hunt code will be​

divided 50/50, with half of the quota going to a preference point draw, and​

half going to a bonus draw. If the quota cannot be evenly split, the extra​

license will go to the preference point draw.​

​

My safe assumption seems to have merit unless someone on the inside can advise how it will work. So far, it appears to be a single, random draw with no recognition of who leaves the pot or no incremental benefit of additional rounds for those with more points.

TRB: Did you see something in that link I missed?

yeah I think your correct in that assessment being not accurate. but, to be sure, bonus and random aren't the same.

in any event, your name shouldn't disappear from the proverbial hat just because the hand grabbed a different one on it's first reach.

 

[JAG]

Did some more digging and found another source outside of CPW that supports the nuanced mechanics of the bonus draw. From HF, it states,

The remaining 50% of licenses will be drawn by any applicant, with extra chances (bonus chances) based on the amount of points they have going into the draw. When an odd number of licenses are available, the preference draw will receive the majority of the licenses.​

​

I'm still perplexed and suspicious. Where is their intel coming from?

 

[Drake4]

50% in Preference Point pool
50% in Bonus Point pool

 

[TOGIE]

Did some more digging and found another source outside of CPW that supports the nuanced mechanics of the bonus draw. From HF, it states,

The remaining 50% of licenses will be drawn by any applicant, with extra chances (bonus chances) based on the amount of points they have going into the draw. When an odd number of licenses are available, the preference draw will receive the majority of the licenses.​

​

I'm still perplexed and suspicious. Where is their intel coming from?

Draw Process Working Group

The Draw Process Working Group has concluded their final work session. Recommendations from the working group’s final work session, and other topics considered by the working group, were heard by the Parks and Wildlife Commission (PWC) as an informational item at their

engagecpw.org

trb's post is the commission approved changes stemming from the DWG recommendation. the DWG recommendations provide a bit more detail on things though.

it's really just gonna play out as names in a hat for the 50% bonus draw. the algorithm should essentially be doing something equivalent to reaching into the hat 5 times if there are 5 tags. your odds of that hand grabbing your name with only 1 preference point (1 name in the hat) are much lower than the guy with his name in the hat 10 times (10 preference points)

 

[seeth07]

There is going to be a massive shift of people - especially with lower point totals - that in 2028 will not be applying for 1-15 point hunt codes but instead be applying for 15+ point hunt codes due to this bonus draw and half of the tags being in that draw.

For this reason, I've been recommending to all my friends to save their 1-4 point right now and build up to a hunt in the 2028 season as there should be some really good deals in that draw if you have 4-10 points.

 

[JAG]

There is going to be a massive shift of people - especially with lower point totals - that in 2028 will not be applying for 1-15 point hunt codes but instead be applying for 15+ point hunt codes due to this bonus draw and half of the tags being in that draw.

For this reason, I've been recommending to all my friends to save their 1-4 point right now and build up to a hunt in the 2028 season as there should be some really good deals in that draw if you have 4-10 points.

That was my takeaway to apply for the moderate level units. With the information supplied by @TOGIE, the structure of the draw might curb that approach. I also assume that most people will be applying for the glory units for that 'chance' and generate lower interest in units requiring 4-10 points. With the structure of an unweighted random draw, it should increase draw participation in units requiring moderate point levels if a high number of tags are available in the random, nonresident pool.

An informed strategy may enhance your opportunity if you determine how many allocated tags are available for nonresidents in the bonus draw. If there's only one tag left in the random draw like 201 (10 total allocated per season), you have the same chance with one point as anyone with 30+.

If a high number of tags will be present in the NR bonus draw pool of a coveted unit, then you gain multiple chances to win that tag up to the amount of points you have.

 

[JAG]

Draw Process Working Group

The Draw Process Working Group has concluded their final work session. Recommendations from the working group’s final work session, and other topics considered by the working group, were heard by the Parks and Wildlife Commission (PWC) as an informational item at their

engagecpw.org

View attachment 367205

Thanks for the link... After I posted, I then noticed the asterisk at the end of the "Bonus Points/Weighted Draw" definition:

this is not exactly how CPW's weighted draw works, however the draw odds are statistically identical."​

That asterisk seems to negate the definition of the 'Bonus Points/Weighted Draw" and revert it to fit the definition of the "Random Draw". I'm confused.

 

[TOGIE]

Thanks for the link... After I posted, I then noticed the asterisk at the end of the "Bonus Points/Weighted Draw" definition:

this is not exactly how CPW's weighted draw works, however the draw odds are statistically identical."​

That asterisk seems to negate the definition of the 'Bonus Points/Weighted Draw" and revert it to fit the definition of the "Random Draw". I'm confused.

moose sheep and goat are currently using a weighted draw. it's really complicated but functions like a bonus draw.

the asterisk is just saying that the weighted draw isn't technically a bonus draw but produces the same results as a bonus draw. the weighted draw is going away.

 

[JAG]

moose sheep and goat are currently using a weighted draw. it's really complicated but functions like a bonus draw.

the asterisk is just saying that the weighted draw isn't technically a bonus draw but produces the same results as a bonus draw. the weighted draw is going away.

It makes sense that the asterisk resolves any relationship to the msg weighted draw. Especially since it won't happen anymore in 2028.

Do you still interpret CPW's 2028 Bonus Draw (for lesser big game) to allow a single-point applicant in the random hat once, but a 5-point applicant in the random hat five times?

I realize this is getting in the weeds since all we will know is we get a tag or we don't.