A bit premature I’d say but hey maybe if you keep buying on the way down it’s not chasing bottom?
Similar to chasing the bandwagon.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
Similar to chasing the bandwagon.
SD_Prairie_Goat
Well-known member
Hard to predict when the right time is...
that being said I don't believe in sitting on the sidelines as will resulting in watching gains that could have been.At this point I have 25 buy in events. And a money horizon in the decades so the actual point doesn't matter a ton in the grand scheme of life but helps me feel a little better if I get a few right
Exactly like I said with dividendsHard to predict when the right time is...
At this point I have 25 buy in events. And a money horizon in the decades so the actual point doesn't matter a ton in the grand scheme of life but helps me feel a little better if I get a few right
Interesting to think, this thread started February 2020.
A favorite reminder, one of several from Warren Buffett books, he wrote a simple op-ed for NY Times that cycles through my screen saver. I narrowed down to the basis of his point and the portion fits best here (See complete op-ed attached pdf for the complete version).
Also, mind you, this is from 2008. I'd say he is SPOT ON!
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
A favorite reminder, one of several from Warren Buffett books, he wrote a simple op-ed for NY Times that cycles through my screen saver. I narrowed down to the basis of his point and the portion fits best here (See complete op-ed attached pdf for the complete version).
Also, mind you, this is from 2008. I'd say he is SPOT ON!
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
jryoung
Well-known member
When when folks started talking about Berkshire building cash reserves back in the fall all I could hear was that first sentence of the quote.
Yep. Smart team led by one heck of a smart guy. Do miss Munger though.
Warren Buffett saw the selloff coming and hoarded cash, analyst says, as markets await his next move — ‘patience is more than a virtue, it’s a weapon’
"Buffett’s actions over the past year have been a textbook example of positioning for turbulence."
“He has no interest in timing the market’s bottom, nor does he chase short-term rebounds,” he said. “Instead, he waits for moments when fear drives prices to levels where the risk-reward equation tilts decisively in his favor.”
Buffett (BRK) jumped back in with the following purchases.
Occidental Petroleum, $409.1 million.
VeriSign, $89.9 million.
Sirius XM, $296.8 million.
Pool Corp., estimated $70 million.
Domino's Pizza, estimated $470 million.
Constellation Brands (STZ -2.33%), estimated $1.3 billion.
Occidental Petroleum, $409.1 million.
VeriSign, $89.9 million.
Sirius XM, $296.8 million.
Pool Corp., estimated $70 million.
Domino's Pizza, estimated $470 million.
Constellation Brands (STZ -2.33%), estimated $1.3 billion.
Warren’s cash stash is roughly 30% of his portfolio. He’s still in the market.Yep. Smart team led by one heck of a smart guy. Do miss Munger though.
Warren Buffett saw the selloff coming and hoarded cash, analyst says, as markets await his next move — ‘patience is more than a virtue, it’s a weapon’
"Buffett’s actions over the past year have been a textbook example of positioning for turbulence."fortune.com
“He has no interest in timing the market’s bottom, nor does he chase short-term rebounds,” he said. “Instead, he waits for moments when fear drives prices to levels where the risk-reward equation tilts decisively in his favor.”
Buffet sat on roughly the same amount of cash durning 2024’s 23% return on the S&P. He mistimed the market a little.
I don't believe he holds interest in timing the market - based on his interest to buy what he believes are strong long term companies at better prices. Typically when fear is the market gauge.
The books I've read constantly cycle his belief in his stated, "70/30" rule. That 30% is par for the course.
The above mentioned stock selections are pretty interesting for people looking to shadow Birkshire. Those of us small time players, it's worth considering, imo.
Haha! While I'm not a diehard person for Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha holds a good record, as you ( @brymoore ) shared. My comments above are not intended to oppose or counter... its another layer of BRK related to your comment.
Adding this post to clarify my intent above.
Adding this post to clarify my intent above.
@Sytes
Warren doesn’t time the market - the cash holding versus 2024 was an interesting coincidence.
I’ve always followed Warren’s advice on investing in the market for individuals not as market savvy as him - buy and hold the S&P 500. He recommended for his wife 90/10. 90% Vanguard S&P500 fund and 10% short term government bonds. Bogle offered similar advice.
Warren doesn’t time the market - the cash holding versus 2024 was an interesting coincidence.
I’ve always followed Warren’s advice on investing in the market for individuals not as market savvy as him - buy and hold the S&P 500. He recommended for his wife 90/10. 90% Vanguard S&P500 fund and 10% short term government bonds. Bogle offered similar advice.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
I bought 200 shares of Notellum stock this morning. Don't want to jinx my investment.
Iv always wondered about his Sirius xm holding, been a dog for years
Was constellation brands a new position?
3 - 4 year? Alcohol heavyweight. Wonder how that will play with the Canadian/ U.S. tension? Would think there is more downside before rising though, i suppose that is why the Oracle doesn't play market, plays power long term.
They're at a good price, imo. Apparently, it hit that marker for BRK.
They're at a good price, imo. Apparently, it hit that marker for BRK.
jryoung
Well-known member
Alcohol is a fascinating space right now. Broader talks of lower consumption by younger generations, wine overall is down and with spirits there's been a massive shift towards artisan producers (beer too).
But with small batch production, distribution is a huge challenge based on previous systems designed for mass production. That said there will always be something to distribute whether it's the latest LaCroix, energy drink, canned coffee or zero proof cocktails which is growing massively right now.
Constellation seems like an odd pick based on their current product lineup. Heavy in Mexico and California wine (Mondavi) which both have different challenges to overcome.....but those are US concerns and global opportunities likely outweigh US issues guessing the Oracle sees that.
But with small batch production, distribution is a huge challenge based on previous systems designed for mass production. That said there will always be something to distribute whether it's the latest LaCroix, energy drink, canned coffee or zero proof cocktails which is growing massively right now.
Constellation seems like an odd pick based on their current product lineup. Heavy in Mexico and California wine (Mondavi) which both have different challenges to overcome.....but those are US concerns and global opportunities likely outweigh US issues guessing the Oracle sees that.
Bonasababy
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 16, 2024
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Hard to see the bottom for Tesla!
Wonder how long it will be before they get another handout like the near half a billion dollar one they got from the government back in 2010?
Buffet? Try Bogle if you really want to make money over the long term IMO.
Wonder how long it will be before they get another handout like the near half a billion dollar one they got from the government back in 2010?
Buffet? Try Bogle if you really want to make money over the long term IMO.
jryoung
Well-known member
Don't let your 2025 opinion of Musk ignore the facts.
That 465M ATVM load revitalized the NUMMI plant Toyota GM shuttered in early 2010. Workers got back to work and the loan was paid in 3 years benefiting taxpayers.
Ford got almost $6 billion and it was repaid in 2022.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Interesting stock to watch, for sure. JPMorgan put a price target of $120 on it a couple of days ago. Today we get this upgrade from Cantor with a $425 target. I'm sure the Cantor analyst's complete 180degree turn and $200 increase in price target was only on fundamentals.
Auto taxi is good news and I'm sure it will get accelerated, but 8x rev and a PE over 100 takes some guts to overweight. Be careful. It would only take one high-profile crash/death in one of those taxis to crush this stock.
Gulf of America
Well-known member
They'll come around when the cruel realities of life finally beat down their senseless optimism.
