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Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

rogerthat said:
I expect to only see a 50 bps and the market marginally down on it. I don’t think this market is anywhere near bottom or heading to one in the foreseeable future. Everyone has the v bottom from the pandemic in their head. I dont think anyone should be in a hurry to get bullish in this market.
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Pretty much agree on the legitimacy of the view. I just get nervous when everyone is in the same side of the boat.
 
BigHornRam said:
I'm just waiting for everyone to jump on my side of the boat. Cash out and watch the titanic hit the iceberg.🙂

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Oils up again today!
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i can't help but feel like that boat has nearly already sailed.

i suspect there is still upside but i'm scared there's now more risk.

for no reason other than barbershop talk. now that everyone is talking about how you should be investing in oil.... seems it might be too late.
 
BigHornRam said:
I'm just waiting for everyone to jump on my side of the boat. Cash out and watch the titanic hit the iceberg.🙂

oilprice.com

Want To Offset High Gas Prices? Invest In An Oil Company | OilPrice.com

Consumers are suffering as gas prices soar, but there is technically a way to offset that price rise…
oilprice.com oilprice.com

Oils up again today!
Click to expand...

RBC Richardson Barr : News & Research

www.rbcrichardsonbarr.com www.rbcrichardsonbarr.com

Harold doesn't want to play anymore, he's taking his ball and going home.

Biden's tax the golden goose approach is killing it... literally
 
SAJ-99 said:
Pretty much agree on the legitimacy of the view. I just get nervous when everyone is in the same side of the boat.
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Me too. I’m dollar cost averaging really slowly into beaten down stocks and bonds. Hard to believe I’m buying bonds but I have done well buying out of favor assets if you have a long enough time frame. May be a while but I expect to come out okay in the long term when the printing press and easy money policy gets fired back up. Which I fully expect will need to happen when the dust settles.
 
TOGIE said:
i can't help but feel like that boat has nearly already sailed.

i suspect there is still upside but i'm scared there's now more risk.

for no reason other than barbershop talk. now that everyone is talking about how you should be investing in oil.... seems it might be too late.
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Yeah, I think looking for an exit in o&g might be more appropriate. I saw this coming 5 plus years ago. I have closed out all but one of my large concentrated o&g positions. That position is up 400% so playing with the houses money fairly substantially. Oil is going to crash like a rock if we actually fall into a recession. It typically has a giant parabolic move up right before it eats crap. Might be doing it right now though I suspect it has room to run yet. Still caution is the name of the game with any new o&g positions imo.
 
rogerthat said:
Yeah, I think looking for an exit in o&g might be more appropriate. I saw this coming 5 plus years ago. I have closed out all but one of my large concentrated o&g positions. That position is up 400% so playing with the houses money fairly substantially. Oil is going to crash like a rock if we actually fall into a recession. It typically has a giant parabolic move up right before it eats crap. Might be doing it right now though I suspect it has room to run yet. Still caution is the name of the game with any new o&g positions imo.
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Typically true... though you can hedge crazy high right now so who knows. 2 year strip is at $75 for oil and $4.84 for gas. Most companies do alright at $55 and $2.75.
 
What do you think of these calculations @wllm ?

"One final guestimate here. What would another 100K BOPD do to cash flow a few years hence? At current Brent prices, it would take APA toward another $3.0 bn in cash flow, and drive the stock price over $100 per share at a 4X multiple. In recent trading shares of APA have reached the low $50’s, logging a 40% rally in just under a month.

I think APA presents a solid case for investors at current prices with a realistic prospect of a 50% return in one year, and a potential doubling in the event Suriname reaches FID. The risk of that not happening can’t be completely discounted, and shares would take a hit in that event."
 
rogerthat said:
Dave, if you do this, you would need to have a plan to get your money back into the market when the bleeding stops as well as know when the bleeding has stopped. That’s the treachery of timing the market. It can be done but it requires you to be right multiple times which is pretty tough. The time to sell was probably months ago if you were going to do that. Most people are best off letting their retirement funds ride the ups and downs. Just don’t check your balances.
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Gotta try to avoid the "Sell LOW, buy HIGH" market timing ;)
 
SAJ-99 said:
Pretty much agree on the legitimacy of the view. I just get nervous when everyone is in the same side of the boat.
Click to expand...

If you gave me tomorrow's headlines today, I don't know what the outcome would be!

With a time horizon of more than 3 days, I don't think it matters if it's 50 or 75 bps. Will be super interesting to see what happens. Could be 2,000 points higher or lower by the end of the week!
 
BigHornRam said:
What do you think of these calculations @wllm ?

"One final guestimate here. What would another 100K BOPD do to cash flow a few years hence? At current Brent prices, it would take APA toward another $3.0 bn in cash flow, and drive the stock price over $100 per share at a 4X multiple. In recent trading shares of APA have reached the low $50’s, logging a 40% rally in just under a month.

I think APA presents a solid case for investors at current prices with a realistic prospect of a 50% return in one year, and a potential doubling in the event Suriname reaches FID. The risk of that not happening can’t be completely discounted, and shares would take a hit in that event."
Click to expand...

I don't have access to international data via my subscriptions... and I've never worked offshore stuff, so grain of salt.


?
seekingalpha.com

APA fails to find oil in third try at Suriname offshore block (NASDAQ:APA)

APACorp. (APA) said Monday it found only water at an exploration well in northwest Block 53 offshore Suriname, marking its third failed attempt to unlock a commercial discovery in...
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com

People conflate BOPD and BOED all the time... APA produces 189,000 of Oil a day.

1655226314044.png



Looks like they are putting a lot of capital into Suriname? At least a big 2H2022 spend. But it's definitely "a few years hence"... question is can their US and Egypt assets keep up production and do they have running room, or are they declining and is Suriname their future bet. Will 2026 be a mostly offshore production wedge with similar total BOED?

I dk seems bullish... especially given the other OG deals recently, they are at $46 at $122 oil.

I mean what do I know... but that seems aggressive.


1655226475234.png
 
wllm said:
I don't have access to international data via my subscriptions... and I've never worked offshore stuff, so grain of salt.


?
seekingalpha.com

APA fails to find oil in third try at Suriname offshore block (NASDAQ:APA)

APACorp. (APA) said Monday it found only water at an exploration well in northwest Block 53 offshore Suriname, marking its third failed attempt to unlock a commercial discovery in...
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com

People conflate BOPD and BOED all the time... APA produces 189,000 of Oil a day.

View attachment 225991



Looks like they are putting a lot of capital into Suriname? At least a big 2H2022 spend. But it's definitely "a few years hence"... question is can their US and Egypt assets keep up production and do they have running room, or are they declining and is Suriname their future bet. Will 2026 be a mostly offshore production wedge with similar total BOED?

I dk seems bullish... especially given the other OG deals recently, they are at $46 at $122 oil.

I mean what do I know... but that seems aggressive.


View attachment 225993
Click to expand...

"Apache had a bad drill stem test-DST, in 2017 offshore Suriname in Block 53, and took over two years to analyze the geophysical data before choosing to move the drilling focus to the Maka #1 in Block 58. Seven successes, one after another have been the result. You don't drill seven subsea high pressure, high temperature-HPHT wells in a field, to then declare it non-commercial. You don't do a second in-flow test (Krabdagu) if you aren't establishing the connectedness of the reservoir to earlier discoveries. These tests can cost millions of dollars worth of rig time and associated services, and are done only after careful consideration."
 
BigHornRam said:
"Apache had a bad drill stem test-DST, in 2017 offshore Suriname in Block 53, and took over two years to analyze the geophysical data before choosing to move the drilling focus to the Maka #1 in Block 58. Seven successes, one after another have been the result. You don't drill seven subsea high pressure, high temperature-HPHT wells in a field, to then declare it non-commercial. You don't do a second in-flow test (Krabdagu) if you aren't establishing the connectedness of the reservoir to earlier discoveries. These tests can cost millions of dollars worth of rig time and associated services, and are done only after careful consideration."
Click to expand...

I'm not saying it won't produce a lot of oil, more that it will take I dk till 2025 to produce and then more time to really ramp up. In that period their onshore assets will probably decline and they will run out of inventory, so net net they might not actually grow production all that much. So cash flow might not grow 🤷‍♂️

That would be my hesitancy.
 
wllm said:
I'm not saying it won't produce a lot of oil, more that it will take I dk till 2025 to produce and then more time to really ramp up. In that period their onshore assets will probably decline and they will run out of inventory, so net net they might not actually grow production all that much. So cash flow might not grow 🤷‍♂️

That would be my hesitancy.
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Definitely a risk owning this stock.
 
rogerthat said:
I expect to only see a 50 bps and the market marginally down on it. I don’t think this market is anywhere near bottom or heading to one in the foreseeable future. Everyone has the v bottom from the pandemic in their head. I dont think anyone should be in a hurry to get bullish in this market.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree with this sentiment. Besides, if gasoline and diesel prices continue to rise, the inflation will continue to rise, which is bad for the stock market. Everything is delivered with fuel... and as the fuel prices climb, prices for everything delivered by fuel will rise as well. I don't see the "bottom" yet.
 
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