Caribou Gear

Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

Well, most most of those "investors" are losing their ass with bitcoin right now, so you can't count on them to step up anyway.

But seriously though.... WTF

70% of US energy comes from OG, there is nothing eminent that changes that...

Oil and Natural Gas prices are at record highs, the rest of the market sucks.

Yet folks are real anemic about it... I dk...

certainly prices could crash OG is fickle... but still some of the low valuations I've seen are kinda nuts at least in the near term.
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But seriously though.... WTF

70% of US energy comes from OG, there is nothing eminent that changes that...

Oil and Natural Gas prices are at record highs, the rest of the market sucks.

Yet folks are real anemic about it... I dk...

certainly prices could crash OG is fickle... but still some of the low valuations I've seen are kinda nuts at least in the near term.
View attachment 226001
No growth, other than general increase in population. Unless they found a new use for O&G the revenues are entirely dependent on the price of the commodity. Lack of any upside surprise results in a lower P\E. You just said in a previous post that they can hedge the whole strip out to $75 or better. Does an investor want them to do that if they want the upside inflation potential in the commodity? Do they want that cash flow back in dividends and repurchases or plowed back into new projects that won’t see positive returns for 5yrs? Not sure the answers but this is why O&G cos trade at those P/Es.
 
No growth, other than general increase in population. Unless they found a new use for O&G the revenues are entirely dependent on the price of the commodity. Lack of any upside surprise results in a lower P\E. You just said in a previous post that they can hedge the whole strip out to $75 or better. Does an investor want them to do that if they want the upside inflation potential in the commodity? Do they want that cash flow back in dividends and repurchases or plowed back into new projects that won’t see positive returns for 5yrs? Not sure the answers but this is why O&G cos trade at those P/Es.
Obviously O & G needs some hotter looking babes to pimp it on CNBC.
 
No growth, other than general increase in population. Unless they found a new use for O&G the revenues are entirely dependent on the price of the commodity. Lack of any upside surprise results in a lower P\E. You just said in a previous post that they can hedge the whole strip out to $75 or better. Does an investor want them to do that if they want the upside inflation potential in the commodity? Do they want that cash flow back in dividends and repurchases or plowed back into new projects that won’t see positive returns for 5yrs? Not sure the answers but this is why O&G cos trade at those P/Es.
I mean they can hedge, but for instance DVN was only 20% hedged in March. Though it's a fair point.

Aside, interesting to see what happens to those on the other side of those hedges like airlines, prices for airfare are up because of wild demand but a lot of airlines locked in a big portion of their fuel costs at 2021 pricing and haven't been exposed all that much to $100 WTI...
 
I’m sure this is been covered somewhere in 105 pages are you guys using an app or something else to buy and sell?
 
But seriously though.... WTF

70% of US energy comes from OG, there is nothing eminent that changes that...

Oil and Natural Gas prices are at record highs, the rest of the market sucks.

Yet folks are real anemic about it... I dk...

certainly prices could crash OG is fickle... but still some of the low valuations I've seen are kinda nuts at least in the near term.
View attachment 226001
APA is around 6.5 right now with a 1% dividend. I think there's an upside still going forward.
 
It'll be an exciting day today. I'm happy I'm not retired right now hoping to live off my investments
 
I retired in 2019 and with the growth in the market from 2019,
even now my 401k exceeds what I started with in 2019.

I am much more concerned about inflation than the market's ups and downs.
Good for you. You're losing money in the markets now and the supermarket!
 
I expect to only see a 50 bps and the market marginally down on it. I don’t think this market is anywhere near bottom or heading to one in the foreseeable future. Everyone has the v bottom from the pandemic in their head. I dont think anyone should be in a hurry to get bullish in this market.
Well I was wrong. Good for the fed. Maybe they aren’t as big of pu$$ie$ as I thought
 
Good for you. You're losing money in the markets now and the supermarket!
Only have a loss if sell. In big picture, he paid X and even with recent pullback he has more than X. And, perhaps some dividends or interest paid out from his holdings so that also offsets some of the pullback. The inflation is unfortunate though with some adjustments a retired investor using investments to fund retirement can pivot to avoid significant early pullbacks of investment values in the first decade of retirement. Stocks and real estate tend to rise with inflation so the real value impact is nominal. The pain is when you sell a taxable investment and the "gain" is taxed at 15% or higher yet most of the gain was due to inflation rather than real buying power increase.
 
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