LopeHunter
Well-known member
I remain sitting on a pile of cash. Some say time in the market vs market timing though timing a falling knife is where we are, imho. I will let if fall a bit more. If we are not on the start of a year-long recession that the Fed Res had to manage while also addressing inflation then I will eat my last Moon Pie saved from my 1978 visit to Graceland.
I predicted August as when could begin to buy back in to stocks. I will do so in 4 to 6 chunks 3-5 weeks apart. August, as noted before, is based on walking back 6 months from when expect economic recovery to launch. Post mid-terms, Congress is going to be unable to pass a National Donut Day proclamation much less nominal legislation that would get signed by the President until March 2025.
I would put my idle cash to work today but I do not gamble on leverage so avoid options and have enough real estate. I picked up some nice things for the house during 2009-10 when people were dumping what they previously viewed as items they deserved yet when the cash flow cratered at their household they reconsidered if they actually needed that amazing BBQ or side by side or rolling cabinet tool set or custom mountain rifle, etc. I look forward to less volatile markets but we are not there yet as leadership inside gov and private companies are still encountering things not seen for decades such as 10% inflation (rising rents are not in the current number as rent change lags by design), pandemic-fueled supply chain @#)(#-ups, interest rates headed to pre-2000 highs, trillions USD still out in the money supply that has to be destroyed the next 36 months, severe disconnect in skills of unemployed vs. skills needed at open jobs, on and on. Bluntly, the trusted playbook of 2010-2019 is still guiding "gut" instinct because many of the decision-makers simply were not yet adults when we had double-digit inflation last, etc.
Lots of bumbling going on including stable coin crypto, start-up companies discovering down rounds exist as do earlier investors, timid layoffs at cash-flow negative companies, inventory management at retail companies, on and on.
As for my stocks, when do I think I will next see a increase in value over Oct 2021? Not sure. Not worried. As a long-term holder I am playing with House money when saw returns over 7% for a decade plus. I predict will take 6 more years to get back to end of 2021 values so July 2028. From mid-2000 to mid-2014, there was not real growth in stock value. 14 years. Diversify or guard that single basket of eggs like a Spartan.
I predicted August as when could begin to buy back in to stocks. I will do so in 4 to 6 chunks 3-5 weeks apart. August, as noted before, is based on walking back 6 months from when expect economic recovery to launch. Post mid-terms, Congress is going to be unable to pass a National Donut Day proclamation much less nominal legislation that would get signed by the President until March 2025.
I would put my idle cash to work today but I do not gamble on leverage so avoid options and have enough real estate. I picked up some nice things for the house during 2009-10 when people were dumping what they previously viewed as items they deserved yet when the cash flow cratered at their household they reconsidered if they actually needed that amazing BBQ or side by side or rolling cabinet tool set or custom mountain rifle, etc. I look forward to less volatile markets but we are not there yet as leadership inside gov and private companies are still encountering things not seen for decades such as 10% inflation (rising rents are not in the current number as rent change lags by design), pandemic-fueled supply chain @#)(#-ups, interest rates headed to pre-2000 highs, trillions USD still out in the money supply that has to be destroyed the next 36 months, severe disconnect in skills of unemployed vs. skills needed at open jobs, on and on. Bluntly, the trusted playbook of 2010-2019 is still guiding "gut" instinct because many of the decision-makers simply were not yet adults when we had double-digit inflation last, etc.
Lots of bumbling going on including stable coin crypto, start-up companies discovering down rounds exist as do earlier investors, timid layoffs at cash-flow negative companies, inventory management at retail companies, on and on.
As for my stocks, when do I think I will next see a increase in value over Oct 2021? Not sure. Not worried. As a long-term holder I am playing with House money when saw returns over 7% for a decade plus. I predict will take 6 more years to get back to end of 2021 values so July 2028. From mid-2000 to mid-2014, there was not real growth in stock value. 14 years. Diversify or guard that single basket of eggs like a Spartan.
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