Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Just to show the volatility that we are facing.
https://apple.news/AZRqIX4EtToSsOnTDSeKybg

The article says the chart is measuring the VIX at the same point of the year. I'm not sure it is a great comparison because the stuff didn't hit the fan in 2008 until the late summer. VIX at 50 is amazing though. It implies a 3% daily moves over the next two weeks. If I only knew the direction...

 

[SAJ-99]

If we finish in the green today i will be surprised.

You missed it by a day.
The administration is between a rock and hard place. If they do what needs to be done in terms of actions on social isolation, the economy goes into a recession (note- we are probably there already with the only undetermined factor being if the length will qualify as a technical recession). If they don't, they might end with a body count in the millions and have to take the blame for that. Instead, they have done nothing, talk about throwing money at the problem to stave off recession, and look incompetent to the market. That said, it might be worth buying some on these big down days and selling when we rip higher on any news which I am sure will come eventually.

 

[Sytes]

DAMN! I bought into MRNA after shorting AMD... sure as snot, INO took off again! 41% increase today!

 

[Gunflint]

LABU?

 

[Trial153]

You missed it by a day.
The administration is between a rock and hard place. If they do what needs to be done in terms of actions on social isolation, the economy goes into a recession (note- we are probably there already with the only undetermined factor being if the length will qualify as a technical recession). If they don't, they might end with a body count in the millions and have to take the blame for that. Instead, they have done nothing, talk about throwing money at the problem to stave off recession, and look incompetent to the market. That said, it might be worth buying some on these big down days and selling when we rip higher on any news which I am sure will come eventually.

I been hearing some pretty strong concerns about the way the administration is handling this situation. I am am agreement, more leading and less tweeting is appropriate.

 

[VikingsGuy]

more leading and less tweeting is appropriate.

That is true regardless of the issue at hand

 

[Elkmagnet]

That is true regardless of the issue at hand

Literally losing voters due to inaction.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Literally losing voters due to inaction.

My snarky comment to my son last night, "Biden better lock up the nomination before his elderly demographic no longer votes . . . . except for cook county of course."

 

[WyoDoug]

I am buying my antelope tags at end of month then following it with Type 6 cow and a type 6 doe.

I am also spending money on camper upgrades and hunting gear at same time.

Goal for 2020 hunt:
4 antelope (I drew four last year, got 3 filled)
General Elk (any elk) plus 1 type 6
General Deer (3 pt muley or better or any whitetail) plus a type 6 any whitetail doe tag.
General Bear
General Mountain Lion

If I got funds remaining, I am putting in for moose and maybe buffalo but don't expect to draw. Those ones even residents draw preference points.

 

[Marshian]

The DJIA closed at 23550 today. After tonight’s news of a Europe travel ban and the NBA season being postponed, I’m betting it drops into the 21000s tomorrow.

 

[Trial153]

Well at least i now a have move for tomorrow. Time to make some money this week

 

[brymoore]

SPZ futures are down 4% right now

 

[rmauch20]

Tomorrow is going to be rough. The travel ban, the NBA postponing the season, NCAA banning fans. If people weren’t panicing before they will be now.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Tomorrow is going to be rough. The travel ban, the NBA postponing the season, NCAA banning fans. If people weren’t panicing before they will be now.

And Tom Hanks . . . .

 

[dcopas78]

Most colleges and universities in Ohio are going on home instruction, my wife (public school teacher) has been told that this will probably be the last week of school for at least 2 weeks but more like a month - other school districts having same discussion, , Cincinnati canceled Reds Findlay Market opening day parade-pretty much a city holiday, I suspect MLB will announce postponements or cancellations soon, all high school tournaments are spectator free except for immediate family, churches are cancelling services, etc. Things are getting real in Ohio. Not a huge DeWine fan, but I think he is making the appropriate actions to contain the spread here right now.

 

[Sytes]

Premarket tanking... Short side of $...

 

[Trial153]

What investors are saying about Trump’s shock virus plan — Bloomberg

A combination of President Donald Trump’s unprecedented travel restrictions between the U.S. and Europe and underwhelming stimulus measures sparked a fresh exodus from risk assets in global financial markets Thursday.

apple.news

 

[SAJ-99]

What investors are saying about Trump’s shock virus plan — Bloomberg

A combination of President Donald Trump’s unprecedented travel restrictions between the U.S. and Europe and underwhelming stimulus measures sparked a fresh exodus from risk assets in global financial markets Thursday.

apple.news

Too many of these people are talking about throwing money at the problem. It seems like a classic example of "fighting the last battle". This is not a monetary problem or financial system problem like 2008. Yes, the Fed can do some things, like guaranteeing credit lines for business and cutting rates, but that doesn't "solve" the true problem, it just keeps the system operating. Helping individuals is on Congress and the President, and all I still hear is mostly political rhetoric rather than real solutions.
I heard a quite a few of the market pundits yesterday still saying there will not be a recession. I think this is hope, not reality. The data will lag the true conditions and we are probably already in a recession. The only question is how long it will last and what the recovery will look like, V, U , or L. The length is going to be determined by how fast we can stop the spread of the virus, and we are not getting much help from the government. Those are hard decisions, especially when you spent the first two weeks saying it was hoax.

 

[SAJ-99]

First, none of this or anything else I post is financial advice.

This has a lot of signs of a flush. Liquidity (cash) rules. Hogs and beef are both limit down, oil down 6%, stocks down almost 9%, 10yr treasury only down 5bps while the 3mo Bill yield is down 12bps. Treasury market is front running the Fed next week but there are even liquidity problem in longer US Treasuries, probably because it is impossible to predict a virus and economic impact and the Fed has been silent since last week. Interesting, NONE of the data we have seen show any impact whatsoever - even weekly unemployment claims today was down.
When I say it's a flush, it doesn't mean its a bottom. What it means is that any good news should result in being up 5-7%. This might be fiscal (low interest small business loans) or scientific (steady rate of change in the number of news cases). Unfortunately, I don't think the market knows what it is looking for, but it may find anything positive and jump on it.
Technical indicators show strong floor at 2340, which was Dec 2018 low. Because the market went strait up for there, there is nothing technical between here and there unless you get creative. The market will need to form a new bottom or it will get really ugly.

Just heard NY Fed doing a $1T in open market operations. Lok

 

[VikingsGuy]

First, none of this or anything else I post is financial advice.

And my liking of this post is also not financial advice, and I HEREBY DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL REPRESENTATIONS AND WARRANTIES INCLUDING FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PUPOSE