Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[ignorethefringes]

Not to take this off topic too much farther (although this does relate directly to the market)...

Imagine what the 2020 unemployment and payroll figures would look like had the US government not spent over $1 Trillion on the PPP program (paying companies not to lay people off or cut pay). Would not be a pretty picture.

At some point, I would expect for business fundamentals once again become relevant to a company’s stock price. I’ve been waiting for that to happen for a while now and it hasn’t happened though, maybe time has just passed me by...

I think a lot of people waiting for another housing crash as going to be bummed too. By the time it happens, if it does, it will dump to prices within the last couple years, not 2009 levels (IMO).

A good friend of mine, upon moving to Florida around 2005, was house shopping and the broker advised him that he could get approved for $1MM if he wanted it. My friend knew he couldn't afford that kind of money and realized the market was unsustainable so held off. He was justified when the market crashed a few years later. However, when seeing the relatively rapid recovery, he became entrenched in the idea that the market would crash again soon and still held off. He finally bought a place within the last two years and paid (easily) over twice as much as he would have had he bought in 2009 like I did. Despite having to borrow money from a friend just for the $1,000 down-payment, it's been the best financial decision I've made to date.

The point I'm trying to make, is that you can a long time waiting for the "best price" and miss out on years worth of equity and growth. And heck, if the market does crash, just keep making your payments if your able. You'll be right side up again before you know it.

 

[Treeshark]

Agreed 100%- like I said, keeping any cash in hand is very rare for me. At my age (37), I generally have everything in equities as I have so long to go.

I view dollars as employees (not original thought, I read it somewhere). Most often, I have all of my “employees” hard at work in the market, but I do have this nagging feeling right now may be a good time to lay some of them off and wait for a bit of a bubble pop. As usual, the smartest play is probably just to continue to dollar-cost average in per usual.

Edit to add- I haven’t sold any holdings (and won’t) to generate cash, the reason I’m even contemplating this is that I just sent in checks for X2 Roth’s, a SEP and individual brokerage. Wrestling with what to do with that addition.

 

[BigHornRam]

Seems a tad over priced looking at the fundamentals.

Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars

Tesla posted its first full year of net income in 2020 -- but not because of sales to its customers.

www.cnn.com

 

[ignorethefringes]

Seems a tad over priced looking at the fundamentals.

Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars

Tesla posted its first full year of net income in 2020 -- but not because of sales to its customers.

www.cnn.com

We get it, Musk stole your girlfriend/dog/business idea/sandwich at some point and you don't like him. Ignore his stock price if you're not interested, but the business is likely going to survive and continue. You disagree, but people like them enough to want them around and to spend money on their products.

 

[BigHornRam]

We get it, Musk stole your girlfriend/dog/business idea/sandwich at some point and you don't like him. Ignore his stock price if you're not interested, but the business is likely going to survive and continue. You disagree, but people like them enough to want them around and to spend money on their products.

I get it. You are a fanboy. What part of the article did you disagree with?

 

[TOGIE]

I get it. You are a fanboy. What part of the article did you disagree with?

"But the debate between skeptics and devotees of the company whether Tesla is truly profitable has become a "Holy War," according to Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Ventures and a leading tech analyst.

"They're debating two different things. They'll never come to a resolution," he said."

I think this is the primary snippet from the article that we all can agree on, no?

 

[ignorethefringes]

"But the debate between skeptics and devotees of the company whether Tesla is truly profitable has become a "Holy War," according to Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Ventures and a leading tech analyst.

"They're debating two different things. They'll never come to a resolution," he said."

I think this is the primary snippet from the article that we all can agree on, no?

Yes . . . .

 

[ignorethefringes]

I get it. You are a fanboy. What part of the article did you disagree with?

I didn't read it. I just get tired of you spamming the forum with your distaste for the company. I'm not quite sure what you're trying to accomplish or prove. Are you trying to provide financial advice to anyone invested in the company? Are you trying to warn people away from their products? What is your end goal here?

My point was just, "Hey, we get it, you don't like the company. Your opinion of the company isn't going to change others opinions of the company, especially the way you evangelize it. So why not move on already?"

I see/read more about Tesla on this forum from you than anyone else.

 

[SAJ-99]

I didn't read it. I just get tired of you spamming the forum with your distaste for the company. I'm not quite sure what you're trying to accomplish or prove. Are you trying to provide financial advice to anyone invested in the company? Are you trying to warn people away from their products? What is your end goal here?

My point was just, "Hey, we get it, you don't like the company. Your opinion of the company isn't going to change others opinions of the company, especially the way you evangelize it. So why not move on already?"

I see/read more about Tesla on this forum from you than anyone else.

Everything is now driven by narratives. Everything. The ability to control the narrative determines the outcome. This was long the case in politics but now it is has taken over investing. GME is "the little guy bringing down the evil hedge funds". TSLA is "Elon Musk is a genius who's company is changing the World". Facts don't matter in the narrative game.
TSLA is overvalued. But AMZN has been overvalued for 20 yrs. As long as the investors allow these companies to take risks into new areas, the stocks can remain overvalued in a relative sense vs competition. You can't bet against the price until the narrative changes. The scary part is when the narrative morphs into an ideological and glorified view of an individual - Trump in politics, Musk, Bezos, even Buffett in the investing realm. If Musk or Bezos were to unexpectedly die, those stocks would get killed because the narrative is based on them.

 

[BigHornRam]

I didn't read it. I just get tired of you spamming the forum with your distaste for the company. I'm not quite sure what you're trying to accomplish or prove. Are you trying to provide financial advice to anyone invested in the company? Are you trying to warn people away from their products? What is your end goal here?

My point was just, "Hey, we get it, you don't like the company. Your opinion of the company isn't going to change others opinions of the company, especially the way you evangelize it. So why not move on already?"

I see/read more about Tesla on this forum from you than anyone else.

I think a lot of young investors are getting used and manipulated with Tesla being the easiest example of many. Plus it fires you young guys up. Just trying to get you guys to do a little more research into your investments is all. I'll shut up about Tesla for now.

 

[Irrelevant]

For everyone predicting doom and gloom. stick a trend line on this is see where it falls. We are not outside the norm. And when it crashes, it likely won't be that far or for that long. Based on previous run-ups we could still see the fastest growth yet to come.

NASDAQ Composite - 45 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the NASDAQ Composite stock market index since 1971. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

 

[Sytes]

What does your oreo say?

 

[Irrelevant]

Just trying to get you guys to do a little more research into your investments is all.

I did my homework Bro.



Making money investing is not necessarily like making money running a business, so stop treating them the same. Eventually @TOGIE and @ajricketts are going to be buying stone sheep hunts with their profits, so quit telling them they're doing it wrong.

 

[SAJ-99]

For everyone predicting doom and gloom. stick a trend line on this is see where it falls. We are not outside the norm. And when it crashes, it likely won't be that far or for that long. Based on previous run-ups we could still see the fastest growth yet to come.

NASDAQ Composite - 45 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the NASDAQ Composite stock market index since 1971. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

View attachment 172326

Love chart porn but hate long term charts (especially in log format). The log scale hides the pain of declines and makes it hard to add a trend line. You could go back to 12,000 (decline of 10%) and it would look like it barely moved. The interesting part about the chart is the fact that the line went straight up in a recession. That didn't happen anywhere else on the chart.

 

[Irrelevant]

Love chart porn but hate long term charts (especially in log format). The log scale hides the pain of declines and makes it hard to add a trend line. You could go back to 12,000 (decline of 10%) and it would look like it barely moved. The interesting part about the chart is the fact that the line went straight up in a recession. That didn't happen anywhere else on the chart.

I disagree. Matching a linear trendline to a log graph of a large index like this can tell even dummies a ton. Yes, we are currently above that trend line, but not by much, and we've seen nowhere near the growth of the dot.com bubble.

 

[Irrelevant]

Seems a tad over priced looking at the fundamentals.

Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars

Tesla posted its first full year of net income in 2020 -- but not because of sales to its customers.

www.cnn.com

How many times do people have to tell you that the future is driving the ship, not the present.

"What Tesla has that other automakers don't is rapid growth -- last week it forecast annual sales growth of 50% in coming years"

Who is even growing? The big three in the US are so far behind they're going to have to buy their way into the future, even then they're still going to see declines.

 

[BigHornRam]

How many times do people have to tell you that the future is driving the ship, not the present.

"What Tesla has that other automakers don't is rapid growth -- last week it forecast annual sales growth of 50% in coming years"

Who is even growing? The big three in the US are so far behind they're going to have to buy their way into the future, even then they're still going to see declines.

Got you to read the article. Progress!

 

[SAJ-99]

I disagree. Matching a linear trendline to a log graph of a large index like this can tell even dummies a ton. Yes, we are currently above that trend line, but not by much, and we've seen nowhere near the growth of the dot.com bubble.

Yeah, everyone disagrees with me on that. I have been fighting that chart my entire life, and losing. Apply your linear line to the chart below (same chart, only 10yrs). How over bought over that line are you? Keep in mind that the geometric annual return for NASDAQ over that 10yrs is 17% versus the 35yr return of 11%, so the trend line may already be causing a chart crime. Regardless, a regression trend line (minimizing the variance between the individual points and the line) will put you under 10,000. The index is at 13,400 today, so my issue might be with the phrase "not by much". Visually maybe not, but in $ terms we are way over that trend line, even an inflated trend line. Using that chart for anything but trying to get people to buy and hold will lead you to being broke fast. But it is good for getting them to buy and hold.

 

[Irrelevant]

Yeah, everyone disagrees with me on that. I have been fighting that chart my entire life, and losing. Apply your linear line to the chart below (same chart, only 10yrs). How over bought over that line are you? Keep in mind that the geometric annual return for NASDAQ over that 10yrs is 17% versus the 35yr return of 11%, so the trend line may already be causing a chart crime. Regardless, a regression trend line (minimizing the variance between the individual points and the line) will put you under 10,000. The index is at 13,400 today, so my issue might be with the phrase "not by much". Visually maybe not, but in $ terms we are way over that trend line, even an inflated trend line. Using that chart for anything but trying to get people to buy and hold will lead you to being broke fast. But it is good for getting them to buy and hold.
View attachment 172336

Sure, we're over valued. No one is saying otherwise. But the market fluctuates on intervals greater than 10 yrs.

back the the better graph.

If you bailed the on the current market because prices are simply too inflated, notice how much damn profit you are potentially leaving on the table? We are no where near as out of line as we have been previously. And if you're good, eventually you're only gambling with house money while more if your assets are in slow growers, ready to dump into the next crash. But if we're going "to the moon" then we got a damn long ways to go.
EDIT: Obviously all of my trendlines are super accurate LOL

 

[Sytes]

Graphs are very subjective to short v mid v long term interest, imo.

RSI is basically the same as discussed. IMO, fantastic for day/swing trade though not something I'm jumping to use for long term.