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Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Right before the last housing bubble every tom dick and harry was a real estate expert. Sharks are swimming right now. I'm staying the hell out of the water.
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Agreed. I can’t lie, part of me is going to enjoy watching what I’m almost certain is about to happen.
grizzly_
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2013
- Messages
- 1,242
I'm in real estate and from what I see everybody is scared of the stock market and getting back into real estate.
They’re both really expensive right now though, that’s what gives me pause. Although it goes against my investing philosophy in general, I have more cash on hand right now than I would normally feel comfortable with.
Something is telling me now is the time to keep some powder dry for future buying opportunities (smart/disciplined ones, not the casino moves like shorts, GME etc...).
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hogcarpy
Well-known member
Agreed
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Everyone is piling into real estate right now, particularly in the west, because of low interest rates. So you pay 50% more than you should so you can borrow money at 2.5%. Smart! This bubble is going to make the last one look insignificant.
ignorethefringes
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- Sep 19, 2016
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What is going to be the trigger?
BigHornRam
Well-known member
No job, no make payments. Boom!
ignorethefringes
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What's going to cause the mass unemployment at this point?
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Really?
ignorethefringes
Well-known member
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Yes. Isn't unemployment decreasing? What will cause such a significant turn around at this point? So much so to collapse the housing market that has survived this much so far?
T
tjones
Guest
Ya that’s not going to happen anytime soon.
I deal with a whole lot of companies across the country every day and also trades.
There is not a single one not looking to hire. These are good paying jobs.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
I can imagine the lumber mills are struggling to find skilled help right now. Plumbers, electricians, framers, ect, too. Key word is skilled.
T
tjones
Guest
Nope not just skilled.
Entry level mill workers, pallet manufacturers, truss manufacturers, any retailer, most banks, any office. If you can fog a mirror there is a job for you.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Weird.
US payrolls post surprise drop of 140,000 in December, the first decline since April as America's labor-market struggles continue
The Friday report ends a seven-month streak of payroll additions for the US labor market and reflects a slowdown in the US economic recovery.
www.businessinsider.com
ignorethefringes
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- Sep 19, 2016
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"The country's unemployment rate stayed steady at 6.7% in December, the agency said. That's slightly lower than the median economist estimate of 6.8%. The rate's pace of decline moderated through the end of the year after tumbling from its 14.7% peak at the start of the pandemic."Weird.
US payrolls post surprise drop of 140,000 in December, the first decline since April as America's labor-market struggles continue
The Friday report ends a seven-month streak of payroll additions for the US labor market and reflects a slowdown in the US economic recovery.
Isn't that part important too? Why do you insist on calling for doomsday? It's ok to be prepared and also optimistic.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
6.7% unemployment rate and job postings everywhere. That's what I found weird.
Not to take this off topic too much farther (although this does relate directly to the market)...
Imagine what the 2020 unemployment and payroll figures would look like had the US government not spent over $1 Trillion on the PPP program (paying companies not to lay people off or cut pay). Would not be a pretty picture.
At some point, I would expect for business fundamentals once again become relevant to a company’s stock price. I’ve been waiting for that to happen for a while now and it hasn’t happened though, maybe time has just passed me by...
Imagine what the 2020 unemployment and payroll figures would look like had the US government not spent over $1 Trillion on the PPP program (paying companies not to lay people off or cut pay). Would not be a pretty picture.
At some point, I would expect for business fundamentals once again become relevant to a company’s stock price. I’ve been waiting for that to happen for a while now and it hasn’t happened though, maybe time has just passed me by...
