SAJ-99
Well-known member
I now will focus on my December discussion on the family financial situation with my wife and try to explain that this isn't normal.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
SAJ-99
Well-known member
No position for me. Semis have sold off the last few weeks with some going up, some going down. Market is touchy about stuff. NVDA is still pricing in a 7% move after today. Seems like a coin flip which way.
Good luck to those braver than me.
If you have it before the split it’s an easy hold. I sold half after the split
I don't necessarily mean you but I don't get why some people have been so against Nvidia the last few years. Earnings and revenue have exploded higher. Will those kind of growth rates continue? No. But they also can't keep up with demand to sell $30,000+ chips right now. That won't continue forever but every quarter, all the big boys say they can't get enough chips. IMO it's been an easy hold this past year and I have no plans of selling next year either.
I suppose it's different if a person is trying to actively trade it but this is one to just hold imo.
Why is that? A stock split has nothing to do with anything.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I agree, but the reason is price. 18x sales demands continued very strong growth in that number. You see that a little today with a beat and it doesn’t do much. They miss once, and it will get ugly. NVDA is a great business, but very rich stock. It may be easier if you are sitting on big gains because you have held it for years, and maybe took some profit.
I don't disagree but that's been the narrative for years. And wrong. Kept me out of the stock for years too. A company like Nvidia will never be cheap. Yea it's 18x sales but its gross margins are 75%. Its revenue and earnings are up enormously. It's probably going to grow 10% per quarter next year. Yea they'll miss at some point but every company in the world will miss at some point. I don't think it's anytime soon though and IMO not a reason to sell. Part of my conviction is listening to Jensen Huang. He's very optimistic on next year.
Cause iv held it for maybe a decade and it’s a good idea to take some off the table.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I get the view, as does the market. My only piece of advice is not to listen to CEOs. They are the head cheerleader for the company. If its customers can’t start turning this AI whatever-it-is into an increased bottom line, there will be a reckoning in all these names.
Always enjoyable listening to the earnings calls.
The Buffett / Munger earning reports with their counter hosting Diet Coke to See's Candy - was always an experience watching those two discuss earnings.
RIP Munger.
Playing earnings was enjoyable though even great earnings that hint of outlook less than expected have flipped my coin more times than I can count. A good 2-3 month call option has held some good ITM positions.
The Buffett / Munger earning reports with their counter hosting Diet Coke to See's Candy - was always an experience watching those two discuss earnings.
RIP Munger.
Playing earnings was enjoyable though even great earnings that hint of outlook less than expected have flipped my coin more times than I can count. A good 2-3 month call option has held some good ITM positions.
Well I definitely disagree with you there. A person damn well better be listening to what the CEO and executives are saying. Within reason of course. I'd say we just disagree on Nvidia right now.
I don't understand what the split has to do with that but if you've held it that long, then yea it would make sense to sell some.
That’s okay
A decade? Approx 100 shares at 15-18 a pop is roughly $1800 at the time turns out to a little over $550k!
When looking back at early day trading plays of NVDA and seeing the one that got away. Ugh! Haha!
Grats on your $15 a share of X # of NVDA purchases back then...
Post in thread '3.5 years day/swing trading. Still a rookie!
Options next?' https://www.hunttalk.com/threads/3-...ill-a-rookie-options-next.271245/post-2558182Hunt Talk November 2016:
Wish I could have afforded 100 back thenA decade? Approx 100 shares at 15-18 a pop is roughly $1800 at the time turns out to a little over $550k!
When looking back at early day trading plays of NVDA and seeing the one that got away. Ugh! Haha!
Grats on your $15 a share of X # of NVDA purchases back then...
Post in thread '3.5 years day/swing trading. Still a rookie!
Hunt Talk November 2016:
The value of your position was exactly the same the day before and the day of the split. So I don't understand what changed. Whatever though, it doesn't matter. You made an amazing buy and hold so congrats on that. Selling half after holding it that long I'm sure was the right thing to do.
I'm not saying you, but just in general, I do not understand why people make such a big deal out of splits. Absolutely nothing changed in the value of the company or the value of a person's holding after a split.
SD_Prairie_Goat
Well-known member
Think about it this way. If he only had one share, which you can't sell a portion of, you now have 10 and can sell 5 while still keeping the house money in the game.
The split doesn't change the price but opens you up to do more with your limited shares
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Applicable...
jryoung
Well-known member
Couldn't take the hype train anymore, bailed out of almost everything I had here. I may regret it, but far less than if the insane valuation deflates. Now just need to figure out where to go with it.....the sidelines in a CD for 30-60 days sounds practical, but a pair of 10x42 NL Pures in my stocking sound more fun.
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