Sitka Gear Turkey Tool Belt

Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

Amazon did their 20:1 split. Is this a buying opportunity now? Up almost 5% today.
 
rogerthat said:
Bonds are going down with stocks again. Until we start seeing a flight to safety this baby is going down like a sack of crap! I still like my 2800 on the S&P bottom call.
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Hard technical line near 3400ish. It will take a lot more bad news to get to 2800. Not saying it couldn't happen, but it would need a knee-capper of an event.
 
BigHornRam said:
Two for one Friday tune/money and finanace post. Can you loan me a pair @SAJ-99
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It has never paid to be bearish long term. Consumer sentiment is lowest EVER, Investor sentiment is negative, investor cash levels are highest in decades. For full disclosure, I'm holding 25% cash, so its not like I'm All-In. But being stubbornly negative is a good way to end up broke. You can be holding cash and basking in your success while inflation erodes the value of that cash. I guess the call would be right so you can be broke and correct at the same time.
 
SAJ-99 said:
You can be holding cash and basking in your success while inflation erodes the value of that cash. I guess the call would be right so you can be broke and correct at the same time.
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Which is worse? Inflation eroding your cash or most of your equities dropping 20+ percent?

You are right, long term bear mentality is probably not profitable but it’s perfectly reasonable short term based on immediate market and consumer conditions
 
huntandfly said:
Which is worse? Inflation eroding your cash or most of your equities dropping 20+ percent?

You are right, long term bear mentality is probably not profitable but it’s perfectly reasonable short term based on immediate market and consumer conditions
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I assume the question is rhetorical given the obvious answer. @rogerthat has a buy target, and he said he would buy. I will believe him. But what typically happens is the market rebounds when economic conditions are the worst. So will you be a buyer or are you going to say "consumer conditions and economy are horrible so I'm waiting for the next dip."? EVERYONE says they will buy, but the stubborn never do.
 
SAJ-99 said:
I assume the question is rhetorical given the obvious answer. @rogerthat has a buy target, and he said he would buy. I will believe him. But what typically happens is the market rebounds when economic conditions are the worst. So will you be a buyer or are you going to say "consumer conditions and economy are horrible so I'm waiting for the next dip."? EVERYONE says they will buy, but the stubborn never do.
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I’m a scenario guy. I have 5 plausible scenarios as to how this goes. 2800 is my second level bear scenario and my best guess as to how this shakes. It’s a guess of course. Therefore I actually started dollar cost averaging into select etfs 3 weeks ago. Some stuff looks ok right now on a strictly valuation stand point. My bull scenario I think is unlikely but it’s possible therefore got to hedge my bets and buy. I suspect I will take some losses in the short term
 
I have yet to meet a short-term trader that does better than a strategic long term investor that stays the course through thick and thin. Yet I’ve met plenty of traders that have done much worse than long term investors. I guess we have some exceptions on here…
 
It’s nice to be buying at somewhat reasonable valuations. I love when stocks go down.
 
SAJ-99 said:
It has never paid to be bearish long term. Consumer sentiment is lowest EVER, Investor sentiment is negative, investor cash levels are highest in decades. For full disclosure, I'm holding 25% cash, so its not like I'm All-In. But being stubbornly negative is a good way to end up broke. You can be holding cash and basking in your success while inflation erodes the value of that cash. I guess the call would be right so you can be broke and correct at the same time.
Click to expand...
My stocks are up 72% ytd. Down a little today. Plenty of dry powder too for when new management steps in. So I'm a short term bear for now.
 
stealthy_bowman said:
I have yet to meet a short-term trader that does better than a strategic long term investor that stays the course through thick and thin. Yet I’ve met plenty of traders that have done much worse than long term investors. I guess we have some exceptions on here…
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Your spot on but it’s fun to guess where things are headed.
 
SAJ-99 said:
I assume the question is rhetorical given the obvious answer. @rogerthat has a buy target, and he said he would buy. I will believe him. But what typically happens is the market rebounds when economic conditions are the worst. So will you be a buyer or are you going to say "consumer conditions and economy are horrible so I'm waiting for the next dip."? EVERYONE says they will buy, but the stubborn never do.
Click to expand...
Of course I have buy targets, and I too am a long term investor. I’m less than 40% cash right now though which is much higher than normal.

Your comment about basking in success for holding cash right now made me believe you were being facetious and therefore encouraging new long positions right now, which I disagree with. But I legitimately don’t know anything and am guessing, as is anyone else who is an involved trader
 
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