I’m hoping all of you drew the tags you wanted. But for those of us that didn’t, I’m trying to offer a discussion that doesn’t sound like “the sky is falling” or “woe is me” or “close the borders to all non-residents.”
So yeah, point creep was real. And man, it jumped this year in ways that I don’t really think any single factor can explain.
Let’s take a marginal unit and look what the past 6 years have done. Unit 16. Bad access. Overrun with orange. Not a trophy unit in any sense. The sort of unit you used to select as a second or third choice just to hunt something in case you struck out on your first choice.
So in 6 years, a unit goes from literally every single person applying being able to get a tag to a 19% non-resident draw odds unit.
To me, there are probably 4 factors at work here.
First, the covid hangover. People want to get out and about. Combine that with having more money (for those of us that were fortunate enough to keep our jobs) and not having spent any on vacations, and it makes for a compelling hunting case.
Two, the headwinds that things might change soon in Wyoming for the worse for non-residents. Tags might be fewer and more expensive, so burn those points, etc.
Three, yeah, western hunting is getting more popular. Though I continue to believe the overall numbers of hunters is not really going up. Instead, people who maybe before were content just to hunt in their state have now learned how to apply in half a dozen.
And four, there were A LOT fewer tags this year in Wyoming. So even if applications were stagnant, it would have taken more points to guarantee a unit (probably).
But like a lot of you have pointed out before, there are still winners in the point-creep world. Concrete example. Look at unit 69 in the special draw. Last year, as a non-resident, you had a snowball’s chance in hell of drawing that unit with no points, even paying the special price—4.8%. But this year, if you were willing to pony up the $600 or so, 37.5%--3 of the 8 that applied. I’m certain that’s because people looked at the odds from last year and thought better of applying there. Those three folks are winners in the point-creep world.
My sense is that one thing that a lot of non-residents are really upset about is the loss (or perceived loss) of the ability to build points to go after a trophy unit while still being able to snag a second-choice buck tag. And at least for non-residents, that is pretty much gone—as in, gone are the days that you could apply for one of the primo units as a first choice, then an OK unit as a second choice, and still be guaranteed to draw that second choice unit so that you could hunt bucks while continuing to add on a preference point each year. (16 was one of those “safe” second-choice units for non-residents for a time.) And residents are no doubt feeling the same squeeze, just without points—fewer and fewer “safe” second-choice units means you might have to apply as a first choice in a less than primo unit.
But if that’s one of the reasons so many people are apoplectic about the current state of affairs, maybe the answer is just to reset (or adjust) expectations. I mean, the old state of affairs, where you could guarantee yourself a buck tag for $350 as a non-resident while gaining a point each year could be seen as too good to be true. In other words, maybe instead of bemoaning the loss of that, we celebrate the fact that it once existed.
It is still very much true that anyone can hunt a buck or doe antelope in Wyoming every year. That’s just a fact. Now, the units you have to choose from get fewer and fewer, the price you have to pay gets higher and higher, and you might have to resign yourself to picking a marginal unit from the get-go. But again, perhaps some of us (me included) have been coming at this from an unreasonable starting point. If my starting point is that for $34 I should be able to shoot two does in a primo, easily-accessed Wyoming unit each year, then yeah, I’m willing to admit my expectations might have been set unreasonably high.
And yes, I agree with what so many others on here have posted. I don’t want hunting to get so expensive that it’s only a rich person’s pursuit. I want states that are rich in federal land to balance their interests in managing their wildlife with the interests of the rest of tax-paying Americans to use the federal lands to pursue that game. I want to see an end to the practice of private landowners land-locking state and federal lands so that they’re inaccessible unless you own a helicopter. And yes, of course we should continue to try to grow the resource itself instead of only focusing on the dream tags. But all of those are conversations for another day. For today, I’m just trying to keep what I believe to be a healthy perspective about how many hunting opportunities we all still have.
I’ll be chasing antelope this year in Wyoming—it won’t be a buck, and that’s ok with me. I’ll be outdoors, I’ll be with friends, and I’ll have a great time. I wish the rest of you success in your hunting pursuits this year however you define that.
So yeah, point creep was real. And man, it jumped this year in ways that I don’t really think any single factor can explain.
Let’s take a marginal unit and look what the past 6 years have done. Unit 16. Bad access. Overrun with orange. Not a trophy unit in any sense. The sort of unit you used to select as a second or third choice just to hunt something in case you struck out on your first choice.
In 2016, for non-residents, there were 135 tags: 0 first choice, 93 second choice, 17 third choice. So everyone who applied got the tag.
In 2017, for non-residents, there were 133 tags: 0 first choice, 105 second choice, 49 third choice. So everyone who applied as second choice got it, and most of the third choice, too.
In 2018, for non-residents, there were 129 tags: 0 first choice, 114 second choice, 87 third choice. So still a 100% second choice unit.
In 2019, for non-residents, there were 128 tags: 0 first choice, 229 second choice, 148 third choice. So for the first time, it was no longer a 100% unit in the second choice category (but obviously 100% in the first choice).
In 2020, for non-residents, there were 120 tags: 72 first choice, 173 second choice, 137 third choice. So still, as always had been, a 100% in the first choice, but now, pretty slim odds as second choice.
In 2021, for non-residents, there were 62 tags: 318 first choice, 204 second choice, 171 third choice. So, that’s pretty remarkable—in one year, it went from a 100% first choice to a 19% first choice (and even if it had been allocated the “normal” 130 tags, it would still have only been a 41% first choice).
So in 6 years, a unit goes from literally every single person applying being able to get a tag to a 19% non-resident draw odds unit.
To me, there are probably 4 factors at work here.
First, the covid hangover. People want to get out and about. Combine that with having more money (for those of us that were fortunate enough to keep our jobs) and not having spent any on vacations, and it makes for a compelling hunting case.
Two, the headwinds that things might change soon in Wyoming for the worse for non-residents. Tags might be fewer and more expensive, so burn those points, etc.
Three, yeah, western hunting is getting more popular. Though I continue to believe the overall numbers of hunters is not really going up. Instead, people who maybe before were content just to hunt in their state have now learned how to apply in half a dozen.
And four, there were A LOT fewer tags this year in Wyoming. So even if applications were stagnant, it would have taken more points to guarantee a unit (probably).
But like a lot of you have pointed out before, there are still winners in the point-creep world. Concrete example. Look at unit 69 in the special draw. Last year, as a non-resident, you had a snowball’s chance in hell of drawing that unit with no points, even paying the special price—4.8%. But this year, if you were willing to pony up the $600 or so, 37.5%--3 of the 8 that applied. I’m certain that’s because people looked at the odds from last year and thought better of applying there. Those three folks are winners in the point-creep world.
My sense is that one thing that a lot of non-residents are really upset about is the loss (or perceived loss) of the ability to build points to go after a trophy unit while still being able to snag a second-choice buck tag. And at least for non-residents, that is pretty much gone—as in, gone are the days that you could apply for one of the primo units as a first choice, then an OK unit as a second choice, and still be guaranteed to draw that second choice unit so that you could hunt bucks while continuing to add on a preference point each year. (16 was one of those “safe” second-choice units for non-residents for a time.) And residents are no doubt feeling the same squeeze, just without points—fewer and fewer “safe” second-choice units means you might have to apply as a first choice in a less than primo unit.
But if that’s one of the reasons so many people are apoplectic about the current state of affairs, maybe the answer is just to reset (or adjust) expectations. I mean, the old state of affairs, where you could guarantee yourself a buck tag for $350 as a non-resident while gaining a point each year could be seen as too good to be true. In other words, maybe instead of bemoaning the loss of that, we celebrate the fact that it once existed.
It is still very much true that anyone can hunt a buck or doe antelope in Wyoming every year. That’s just a fact. Now, the units you have to choose from get fewer and fewer, the price you have to pay gets higher and higher, and you might have to resign yourself to picking a marginal unit from the get-go. But again, perhaps some of us (me included) have been coming at this from an unreasonable starting point. If my starting point is that for $34 I should be able to shoot two does in a primo, easily-accessed Wyoming unit each year, then yeah, I’m willing to admit my expectations might have been set unreasonably high.
And yes, I agree with what so many others on here have posted. I don’t want hunting to get so expensive that it’s only a rich person’s pursuit. I want states that are rich in federal land to balance their interests in managing their wildlife with the interests of the rest of tax-paying Americans to use the federal lands to pursue that game. I want to see an end to the practice of private landowners land-locking state and federal lands so that they’re inaccessible unless you own a helicopter. And yes, of course we should continue to try to grow the resource itself instead of only focusing on the dream tags. But all of those are conversations for another day. For today, I’m just trying to keep what I believe to be a healthy perspective about how many hunting opportunities we all still have.
I’ll be chasing antelope this year in Wyoming—it won’t be a buck, and that’s ok with me. I’ll be outdoors, I’ll be with friends, and I’ll have a great time. I wish the rest of you success in your hunting pursuits this year however you define that.
