Zinke Proponent of BALANCED, Not Extremist Leadership.

[RobG]

Appears to be a decent discussion, prolly because BHR is on my ignore list. Ha, ha....

Headwaters Economics put this out in April about wildfires. You can cry about the source, but the references look to be good reads if you want something other than Terry Anderson's Phony Environment Research Crap.

Look at timber management on private land in Oregon if you want to know the industry would take us if they didn't have to deal with the tree huggers. No thanks.

 

[jryoung]

Since housing starts was mentioned as a key driver to lumber demands it'll be interesting to see how the new tax bill effects homeownership as there are many broad changes that could negatively impact home buying.

 

[375H&H]

Since housing starts was mentioned as a key driver to lumber demands it'll be interesting to see how the new tax bill effects homeownership as there are many broad changes that could negatively impact home buying.

I highly doubt it will have any negative impacts. The last 8 years was a negative impact for buying a house in Wyoming with uncertainties in resource extraction and people getting laid off due to negative speculation in the industries. Probably a negative impact in Montana towns like Forsyth, Colstrip, Hardin and others as well. Or Craig, Hayden, and Meeker, CO just to name a few. People and businesses usually invest or spend more when they get tax breaks or positive market outlook, at least all the places I work for have.

 

[Straight Arrow]

I highly doubt whether the numbers related to housing start-ups in Wyoming and Montana really are relevant to the national trend due to the low numbers in these states.

 

[jryoung]

I highly doubt it will have any negative impacts. The last 8 years was a negative impact for buying a house in Wyoming with uncertainties in resource extraction and people getting laid off due to negative speculation in the industries. Probably a negative impact in Montana towns like Forsyth, Colstrip, Hardin and others as well. Or Craig, Hayden, and Meeker, CO just to name a few. People and businesses usually invest or spend more when they get tax breaks or positive market outlook, at least all the places I work for have.

One major city and surrounding suburbs would likely outstrip the demand for all the towns in Wyoming or Montana for that matter, not really what I was getting at. How will the tax law change impact the demand for the entire country. That said the last 8 years of uncertainty will continue as it was then when natural gas dipped below $4 and has largely maintained there for some time. That will still be the headwinds coal will have to tackle, flat global demand as well.

 

[375H&H]

One major city and surrounding suburbs would likely outstrip the demand for all the towns in Wyoming or Montana for that matter, not really what I was getting at. How will the tax law change impact the demand for the entire country. That said the last 8 years of uncertainty will continue as it was then when natural gas dipped below $4 and has largely maintained there for some time. That will still be the headwinds coal will have to tackle, flat global demand as well.

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Fair enough, and I agree. But I do think that more industries in larger cities will still show increased investment in their company and have better wages which benefits home buying.

 

[Irrelevant]

I highly doubt it will have any negative impacts. The last 8 years was a negative impact for buying a house in Wyoming with uncertainties in resource extraction and people getting laid off due to negative speculation in the industries. Probably a negative impact in Montana towns like Forsyth, Colstrip, Hardin and others as well. Or Craig, Hayden, and Meeker, CO just to name a few. People and businesses usually invest or spend more when they get tax breaks or positive market outlook, at least all the places I work for have.

Considering the interest rates the last 4 years you're full of it. I just built a house that I could not have afforded without interest rates were they've been... the basement. They make a helluva a lot bigger impact that political tit for tats. Also, any employee of an extractive industry should have a plan B, as politics don't control the market, and your job can vanish based on decisions in China.

 

[375H&H]

Considering the interest rates the last 4 years you're full of it. I just built a house that I could not have afforded without interest rates were they've been... the basement. They make a helluva a lot bigger impact that political tit for tats. Also, any employee of an extractive industry should have a plan B, as politics don't control the market, and your job can vanish based on decisions in China.

Interest rates is a good point. But that wouldn't stop me from buying a house if I felt I was secure in my job.

And you must not be in the extractive industries, as you are a little bit off on how they work.

 

[BigHornRam]

Since housing starts was mentioned as a key driver to lumber demands it'll be interesting to see how the new tax bill effects homeownership as there are many broad changes that could negatively impact home buying.

Standard deduction has been doubled. If you are buying a house you can not afford without being able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes above that new deduction, then you are setting yourself up for failure.

 

[tjones]

Since housing starts was mentioned as a key driver to lumber demands it'll be interesting to see how the new tax bill effects homeownership as there are many broad changes that could negatively impact home buying.

Good point JR. Interesting to say the least.


FWIW I ship between 2 and 2.5 million feet a month of lumber and not one stick goes into a house. It’s a very small part of the overall lumber production in the US and Canada, but there are a whole lot of guys like me out there moving lumber that does not go into homes.

 

[jryoung]

Standard deduction has been doubled. If you are buying a house you can not afford without being able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes above that new deduction, then you are setting yourself up for failure.

Which is why I mentioned many broad changes, LIHTC now has lower value, loss of MID in premium markets is another, fortunately PABs were save as well as the SALT deduction. Time will tell, there's a lot of "if you like your insurance plan you can keep it" hope and promise.

 

[brymoore]

Standard deduction has been doubled. If you are buying a house you can not afford without being able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes above that new deduction, then you are setting yourself up for failure.

Your missing the whole point. Reducing the mortgage interest reduction will devalue real estate and will reduce demand. Doubling the standard deductions will have no effect on real estate values.

 

[jryoung]

Good point JR. Interesting to say the least.


FWIW I ship between 2 and 2.5 million feet a month of lumber and not one stick goes into a house. It’s a very small part of the overall lumber production in the US and Canada, but there are a whole lot of guys like me out there moving lumber that does not go into homes.

Do you know what a massive investment in infrastructure would do to lumber demand? Thinking concrete forms and such.

 

[BigHornRam]

Your missing the whole point. Reducing the mortgage interest reduction will devalue real estate and will reduce demand. Doubling the standard deductions will have no effect on real estate values.

You are missing the whole point. Buying homes you can't afford in order to get a nice fat tax break leads to housing bubbles, which did not help the demand for lumber in the last one. I don't know about Idaho, but right now in Western Montana, Calfornia refugees are arriving here by the Megaload. Local building supply ran out of 9' 2 x 6 studs for several weeks this summer. Time to sell my home.

 

[BigHornRam]

Do you know what a massive investment in infrastructure would do to lumber demand? Thinking concrete forms and such.

You know what this technology WILL do to the lumber produced from small diameter (pecker poles as buzz would say) demand?

http://www.structurlam.com/whats-new/uncategorized/concrete-vs-cross-laminated-timber/

 

[jryoung]

You know what this technology WILL do to the lumber produced from small diameter (pecker poles as buzz would say) demand?

http://www.structurlam.com/whats-new/uncategorized/concrete-vs-cross-laminated-timber/

I don't, my question wasn't rhetorical, I was trying to understand what factors could ramp demand for lumber. Wondering what that would look like if republicans and democrats ever got beyond the talking phase of investing in infastructure.

 

[tjones]

Local building supply ran out of 9' 2 x 6 studs for several weeks this summer. Time to sell my home.

If a yard ran out of 2x6-9’ it means the buyer wasn’t and didn’t do his job. Nothing more.

If you are trying to make some connection between a local retail yard running out of one lumber item and some type of lumber shortage you are living in a very very small world.

 

[375H&H]

If a yard ran out of 2x6-9’ it means the buyer wasn’t and didn’t do his job. Nothing more.

If you are trying to make some connection between a local retail yard running out of one lumber item and some type of lumber shortage you are living in a very very small world.

Who the hell sells 9' studs? I can only get them in 8', 10', or 12'.

 

[BigHornRam]

If a yard ran out of 2x6-9’ it means the buyer wasn’t and didn’t do his job. Nothing more.

It means the few remaining mills in the area couldn't keep up with the demand. Vaagen ended up delivering some wet p pine studs. They probably don't look too straight right now.

Just trying to add some local and regional flavor to the discussion Tony. Nothing more.

 

[BigHornRam]

Who the hell sells 9' studs? I can only get them in 8', 10', or 12'.

You Wyoming folks are way behind the times. They are actually 104 5/8" to be precise. California refugees like 9 foot ceilings!