Wyoming elk special NR draw

[Bigjay73]

Looks like, and I've only compared a dozen hunts, draw odds in the special weren't effected at all from the price hike. I couldn't be less surprised

 

[seeth07]

The unit I applied for saw a swing. Down 3 PP in the special, up 1 in regular. Random odds were worse in both with regular seeing almost double the apps for random and special up by about a 1/3rd

 

[npaden]

2023 there were 3,181 1st choice applicants in the special draw on the random side for the general tag.

2024 there were 1,372 1st choice applicants in the special draw on the random side for all 3 general tag units combined.

That's a decrease of 1,809 applicants, over 56% reduction.

Actual draw odds on the random side in 2023 was 10.7% for special in the general.

Draw odds for 2024 on the random side was 40% for the East, 68.5% for the South and 24.8% in the West. Combined was 31.1%.

Part of that is because the way they split them up there ended up being 84 more tags in 2024.

So there was a pretty big effect, just not enough of one that you are guaranteed a tag.

Going from 10.7% to 24.8% odds is a nice jump though.

 

[npaden]

It's interesting because just looking at points it didn't change that much. Last year it was 4+ points for the special general tag (29% at 4 points)and this year it was essentially 4 points to draw (91% at 4 points in the West).

Will be very interesting to see how this sorts out next year as well. My gut feel says that there was a decent group of folks burning points in the special side this year that are either going to be back to building points again or completely dropping out.

 

[Addicting]

It's interesting because just looking at points it didn't change that much. Last year it was 4+ points for the special general tag (29% at 4 points)and this year it was essentially 4 points to draw (91% at 4 points in the West).

Will be very interesting to see how this sorts out next year as well. My gut feel says that there was a decent group of folks burning points in the special side this year that are either going to be back to building points again or completely dropping out.

I looked at 7 and thought that same thing, or a tag service put high point holders in for it. Both the regular and special needed 13 to draw. One guy burned 17 in the special on that tag.

 

[Bigjay73]

2023 there were 3,181 1st choice applicants in the special draw on the random side for the general tag.

2024 there were 1,372 1st choice applicants in the special draw on the random side for all 3 general tag units combined.

That's a decrease of 1,809 applicants, over 56% reduction.

Actual draw odds on the random side in 2023 was 10.7% for special in the general.

Draw odds for 2024 on the random side was 40% for the East, 68.5% for the South and 24.8% in the West. Combined was 31.1%.

Part of that is because the way they split them up there ended up being 84 more tags in 2024.

So there was a pretty big effect, just not enough of one that you are guaranteed a tag.

Going from 10.7% to 24.8% odds is a nice jump though.

Good stuff. I was only looking at points needed from 23-24, obviously goes a lot deeper than that

 

[Creedance91]

2023 there were 3,181 1st choice applicants in the special draw on the random side for the general tag.

2024 there were 1,372 1st choice applicants in the special draw on the random side for all 3 general tag units combined.

That's a decrease of 1,809 applicants, over 56% reduction.

Actual draw odds on the random side in 2023 was 10.7% for special in the general.

Draw odds for 2024 on the random side was 40% for the East, 68.5% for the South and 24.8% in the West. Combined was 31.1%.

Part of that is because the way they split them up there ended up being 84 more tags in 2024.

So there was a pretty big effect, just not enough of one that you are guaranteed a tag.

Going from 10.7% to 24.8% odds is a nice jump though.

31% on average and really a wild jump in the South

 

[longtail55]

Im curious who has the Crystal Ball on what the trends will be on this for this year?

 

[Treeshark]

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

elk "special"price of over $1900 seems crazy to me,, dont care what the odds are,most folks will pound the regular even more unless they have money to blow,,maybe the folks that go guided are willing to pay that on top of the guide fees for a quicker tag draw.

 

[LopeHunter]

I have money to blow. I also have not been drinking so Wyoming remains a terrible value for me as a non-resident. Similar to how I view high-end pickup trucks. There are better options for me. Geez, $1900 for harvest odds which can be under 50% with a lot of sub-300 bulls being tipped over to notch a WY tag while effectively fenced out of “wilderness” units as apply or pay $8000 for a babysitter.

 

[cgasner1]

I have money to blow. I also have not been drinking so Wyoming remains a terrible value for me as a non-resident. Similar to how I view high-end pickup trucks. There are better options for me. Geez, $1900 for harvest odds which can be under 50% with a lot of sub-300 bulls being tipped over to notch a WY tag while effectively fenced out of “wilderness” units as apply or pay $8000 for a babysitter.

I like your style

 

[BuzzH]

I have money to blow. I also have not been drinking so Wyoming remains a terrible value for me as a non-resident. Similar to how I view high-end pickup trucks. There are better options for me. Geez, $1900 for harvest odds which can be under 50% with a lot of sub-300 bulls being tipped over to notch a WY tag while effectively fenced out of “wilderness” units as apply or pay $8000 for a babysitter.

Find your bootstraps.

 

[OverlordBear]

Just hunt the wilderness with an attorney on retainer and beg the warden if you see one to cite you. So you have the case to get the law thrown out then becoming a hero to the rest of the DIY community.

 

[SAJ-99]

I suspect people will live back from reg to special because the odds are so much better. Despite the cheapskates on HT, the economy is doing well and the money is worth it for quite a few people. It’s either pay the extra money or wait 5 years and hope you catch the point creep for a tag.

 

[Nick87]

I suspect people will live back from reg to special because the odds are so much better. Despite the cheapskates on HT, the economy is doing well and the money is worth it for quite a few people. It’s either pay the extra money or wait 5 years and hope you catch the point creep for a tag.

Let's not forget the keeping up with rhe Jones factor.

 

[Hunt&FishCO]

Just hunt the wilderness with an attorney on retainer and beg the warden if you see one to cite you. So you have the case to get the law thrown out then becoming a hero to the rest of the DIY community.

That’s one strategy…lol