Will I die with moose and sheep points?
- Thread starter madtom
- Start date
Here in NV I may die with my bonus points for mtn goat and desert bighorn. Most likely I will stop applying for them when I decide I am no longer able to get to where those animals hang out.
I just turned 58 and have 14 points for both species so I'm hoping to have at least 10 years of good hunting legs left.
There were multiple people with 27 points for mtn goat who did not draw. But at the same time all but 4 of the 8 tags were drawn by those with less points than me, so there is hope. Same deal with bighorn sheep.
Directionally I agree this is happening in degrees across the west. Certainly the 'people moving every day' component. But the vector doesn't seem to be hunting.
Interestingly, I was just looking at some data in a 'discussion' on a FB Hunting page, a guy was vehement that CO had more hunters in 1985 than today. Then the next was a common refrain that there are more NR's now. Neither are true in a macro sense.
Colorado:
1985 Unique Hunting License Holders (aggregate R/NR) = 310,898
2019 Unique Hunting License Holders (aggregate R/NR) = 298,901
Decrease of 3.9%
1985 Proportions of NR to R in total licenses sold = 28%
2018* Proportions of NR to R in total licenses sold = 24%
* = I used 2018 since it was the year before the qualifying license was required
NR % is slightly up but close to static as you point out (that and $ are the only metrics USFWS split out in R/NR terms: https://www.fws.gov/wsfrprograms/Subpages/LicenseInfo/Hunting.htm).
Compare to:
Population of CO in 1985 = 3,230,000
Population of CO in 2019 = 5,780,000
Increase of 79%
A nearly 80% increase in population but a 4% drop in total licenses sold and a trivial increase in how many licenses NR buy versus R. People are leaving the eastern states behind, but most of them aren't hunting when they get here.
thusby
Well-known member
I just find these situations to be donations to a species I would like to conserve. If the purpose is to draw and hang a head on the wall, then there isn’t much point in continuing.
3855WIN
Well-known member
But the newcomers are building in the wintering grounds for wildlife.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
Those are some interesting stats @cedahm. But I gotta admit a few things #1 CO is one of the few states I've never visited out west. #2 if I were going to move for hunting opportunities CO would be low on my list I feel like. Not that it isn't a great place to hunt we know it is. I've just never been drawn to that state like the other's. It would be interesting to see some of the other big name states for the outdoors MT, WY, ID to see if they have similar stats.
But back on topic not trying to derail the subject at hand here. I got in the big three game kinda late for most states. So I'll probably never get to chase those species. My best hope is MT but I'm pretty sure I'll be worm food before that day happens. I've came close a few times on sheep and goats with tags coming out of my point pool just not my number though.
But back on topic not trying to derail the subject at hand here. I got in the big three game kinda late for most states. So I'll probably never get to chase those species. My best hope is MT but I'm pretty sure I'll be worm food before that day happens. I've came close a few times on sheep and goats with tags coming out of my point pool just not my number though.
Hawk Tuah
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 6, 2018
- Messages
- 1,600
With your points as a resident, you have 3 or so desert bighorn units with draw odds between 25-30%...and they will keep rising. If you concentrate on lower end units, you will get a tag. If you only put in for the Muddys and the Blacks, you probably won't draw. You are in a great position as a resident to hunt desert sheep, but may have to go for a 140-150 inch ram, which to me, is a hell of a trophy. Get after it.Here in NV I may die with my bonus points for mtn goat and desert bighorn. Most likely I will stop applying for them when I decide I am no longer able to get to where those animals hang out.
I just turned 58 and have 14 points for both species so I'm hoping to have at least 10 years of good hunting legs left.
There were multiple people with 27 points for mtn goat who did not draw. But at the same time all but 4 of the 8 tags were drawn by those with less points than me, so there is hope. Same deal with bighorn sheep.
Last edited:
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
I’m not sure if you can use license numbers to show number of hunters... simply because they are dictated by quotas. You could have the population 10x but the number of licenses might decline due to decreased habitat and therefore herd size.
On the allocation side OTC tags have slowly been replaced by limited tags, limited tags have allocation caps OTC do not. Colorado will continue to have less and less NR simply due to this factor. Take archery in San Juan’s, last year it was likely 44% NR (state archery average) this year it will be 35% because archery is fully limited.
I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your point, just I don’t think you can use the data to demonstrate it.
shootbrownelk
Well-known member
Finding a cow without a calf is tough.
I fully intend to die with a pile of moose and sheep points. I have not drawn in 29 years of applying in Montana and 15-20 years in multiple other states. Such is how it goes when you play games of chance.
Fact! Was just pointing out that it's not an explosion of hunters.
Still had the link open so looked @ MT:
1985 Unique Licensed Hunters = 254,255
2019 Unique Licensed Hunters = 227,039
Decrease of 10.7%
NR/R Ratio 1985 = 24%
NR/R Ratio 2019 = 16%
decrease of 8%
I would guess the number of licenses per hunter (the 'ratio' isn't unique license holders it's the total number of licenses purchased in aggregate) is generally up substantially as more refinements (tag/unit/species/sex, etc) are made to tags and there are just more individual tags/licenses now. Either way - there aren't more licensed hunters on the mountain. There are more people on the mountain.
I did as well. Every single one of us is unlikely to draw MSG in any state in our hunting lifetime. Just math. The kind of math that depresses me, but nonetheless I keep trying because I know it can happen
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Not directed at you though is part of the discussion continuance.
Rarely is there a perfect apples to apples set of data that spans a single decade much less several decades. I will take fuzzy data over the opinion of the retired guy at the donut shop any day. Hunters as a % of residents is falling in every state and soon actual numbers will be falling. Lots of reasons for the decline and several threads here over the years have tossed out theories and some data points.
Nonresidents are not the main reason residents are not getting or filling tags this year, last year or 30 years ago.
Random draws are not the problem either and are actually part of the solution. The reason residents that argue for point systems are quite a few of them are putting in for 1 in 200 type odds tags and not able to comprehend why the "lucky" guy at the hardware store drew three years in a row who puts in for a tag with 1 in 2 odds. So, point systems emerged across the West other than Idaho and NM then gradually fail starting about year 10 when "point creep" is the new complaint rather than how "unlucky" the old random method was for those guys.
In a random draw then no one has to fret about going to the grave with points which represent $100s or $1000s of dollars of aggregate spending for a series of "Not Drawn" years. F&G loves point systems until point creep starts to convince non-residents to abandon that species after they finally draw or abandon the state. Non-residents are easy to milk for increases in fees as they do not vote and do not show up at public meetings. No gun to anyone's head though non-residents do walk away when becomes obvious to anyone who did not sleep through math class that if today you have 3 points in WY's sheep or moose draw as a 40 year old then applying anymore will be a lot of $$$ to have very little chance to draw a tag while healthy enough to hunt. No 40 year old would reach that conclusion to walk away if was a random draw. The odds would draw a tag would be better for that guy if was 100% random (4x better since every tag is in play for him rather than 25%).
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
@cedahm and @LopeHunter I wonder if one could CORA, new Colorado Hunter's safety cards issued per year. Presumably if you were a NR that moved to CO and were interested in hunting you would enroll your kids in hunters safety when you got here. Would be interesting to see what those numbers look like.
I bet you would see the overall number increase 1980 relative to 2019, but the ratio to the population would be in decline.
Bottom line, we need to improve the well. I'm honestly surprised that given the popularity of sheep hunting sportsman haven't really put the screws to domestic sheep. @Oak can jump in here if I'm being too hyperbolic, but I bet if we eliminated all agg sheep and strictly enforced hobby farms, the landscape could probably support 10x the number of sheep... possibly more. I'm not a sheep expert, but numbers I've seen on the web suggest 1800s numbers were 200,000-2 million... huge range, but still way more than the current ~37,000 sheep we have currently.
I'm not sure about moose... we might be at or close to "peak moose".
I bet you would see the overall number increase 1980 relative to 2019, but the ratio to the population would be in decline.
Bottom line, we need to improve the well. I'm honestly surprised that given the popularity of sheep hunting sportsman haven't really put the screws to domestic sheep. @Oak can jump in here if I'm being too hyperbolic, but I bet if we eliminated all agg sheep and strictly enforced hobby farms, the landscape could probably support 10x the number of sheep... possibly more. I'm not a sheep expert, but numbers I've seen on the web suggest 1800s numbers were 200,000-2 million... huge range, but still way more than the current ~37,000 sheep we have currently.
I'm not sure about moose... we might be at or close to "peak moose".
I could write for a long time on this paragraph if I had the time. I may start another thread later if I find the time.
If anyone is curious about the statistics, the formula for drawing a tag in a certain number of years is 100%*(1-((100-odds of drawing)/100)^number of years). Now to do this you have to make assumptions about what your odds will be in future years, but you can get a rough idea.
For example, I can look and see that I have a 1% odds of drawing a bighorn sheep tag in the Missouri Breaks with 11 bonus points. I estimate that with the squared points system in Montana that will go up to about 3% in 10 years, so i'll use a 2% odds for an average.
Then the odds of drawing in 10 years would be 100%*(1-((100-2)/100)^10)=18%. Assuming an average draw odds of 3% over the next 20 years the odds become 100%*(1-((100-3)/100)^10)=45%.
I'm starting to wonder if I should start applying for a more difficult hunt that I could probably get in my lifetime like the Spanish Peaks or the Upper Madison Range which for 11 bonus points have draw odds of 3.5-4%. Let's say that the odds of one of them is 6% on average for the next 10 years. Then the odds of drawing in 10 years would be 100%*(1-((100-6)/100)^10)=46%. Assuming an average draw odds of 8% over the next 20 years the odds become 100%*(1-((100-8)/100)^10)=81%. Lots to think about when you start doing the math.
Bottom line is that a resident will likely get some of the less desirable hunts in their lifetime but might never get the more desirable ones like the Missouri River Breaks. The only sure way to go sheep hunting is to buy a $15-20k Dall's sheep hunt. The best bet for a Bighorn is to apply for one of the easier to draw hunts every single year, and to support the conservation organizations that work to increase the Bighorn population.
For example, I can look and see that I have a 1% odds of drawing a bighorn sheep tag in the Missouri Breaks with 11 bonus points. I estimate that with the squared points system in Montana that will go up to about 3% in 10 years, so i'll use a 2% odds for an average.
Then the odds of drawing in 10 years would be 100%*(1-((100-2)/100)^10)=18%. Assuming an average draw odds of 3% over the next 20 years the odds become 100%*(1-((100-3)/100)^10)=45%.
I'm starting to wonder if I should start applying for a more difficult hunt that I could probably get in my lifetime like the Spanish Peaks or the Upper Madison Range which for 11 bonus points have draw odds of 3.5-4%. Let's say that the odds of one of them is 6% on average for the next 10 years. Then the odds of drawing in 10 years would be 100%*(1-((100-6)/100)^10)=46%. Assuming an average draw odds of 8% over the next 20 years the odds become 100%*(1-((100-8)/100)^10)=81%. Lots to think about when you start doing the math.
Bottom line is that a resident will likely get some of the less desirable hunts in their lifetime but might never get the more desirable ones like the Missouri River Breaks. The only sure way to go sheep hunting is to buy a $15-20k Dall's sheep hunt. The best bet for a Bighorn is to apply for one of the easier to draw hunts every single year, and to support the conservation organizations that work to increase the Bighorn population.
BrentD
Well-known member
Well, I for one, hope you fail (at dying with points).
HONEYBADGER
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2013
- Messages
- 774
Yes you will....
BuzzH
Well-known member
The winner would be the guy that dies with no points...
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Remember the asshat in Montana that moved domestic sheep onto a chunk of land he knew would put a herd of bighorn at risk simply because he could not get a land swap? I think I have the state and issue involved correct. I agree re grazing and hobby farms near bighorn sheep herds. Of course, not a big fan of Bundy-type BLM leases that go unpaid whether is cattle or some other domestic critter. Bighorns struggle everywhere it seems. Heck, 20 to 30 years of hard work can rebuild a herd just to see the herd die off in a couple of winters. Wyoming is killing off mountain goats to try and boost the bighorn herd there near Jackson. Colorado increased goat harvest targets to help some sheep herds. I wonder if should just focus on mountain goats when a bighorn herd dies off? Goats seem hardier.
BrentD
Well-known member
Similar threads
