When will wood prices go back down?

[TwistedSage]

Any folks here in the know on the forcast for lumber prices? When they might go down and if they will ever be as low as they were? I have a couple of projects that I am kicking myself on for procrastinating, but with lumber so damn high I'm wondering if it's worth it just to wait another year or so. A project tripling in price is just a hard pill to swallow.

 

[SD_Prairie_Goat]

Wouldn't expect it to go down any time soon. There is a lot of pent up demand for housing right now. I would expect this to continue for the rest of the year personally.

 

[KB_]

Now that companies know they can fetch the prices I don't think it will drop again anytime soon.

 

[magtech]

2+ years same time they're "predicting" everything else to be settled down

 

[SO7mm]

Went in and talked to my lumber sales guy today and he didn't think there's any chance it's going down this year. In general it's up 190% from March 2020 and has climbed 30% just in the last month and it's still going up strong. He can only lock in pricing for a few days. It used to be no problem getting a 30 day lock. Unprecedented and scary to me.

 

[RobertD]

Am told by a hunting buddy prices are easing back down on the loggers' end of things, but that the bottleneck is at sawmills. Can't keep up with demand, can't convert trees to boards fast enough so prices stay high. Idk how true that is but it makes sense anyway.

Went to Lowe's the other day to buy some pine boards for rebuilding my bed supports. Looked at wood prices... yikes.

 

[NEW PA MT MN]

Helping my son remodel a bathroom in long beach. Went to Home depot yesterday and paid 51.65 for one sheet of 7/16 osb.
On the way home we we talking about how his company can't hire anybody at 16.00/hr and I told him that you would soon work 1/2 a day for one sheet at that hourly rate.

 

[RobertD]

Helping my son remodel a bathroom in long beach. Went to Home depot yesterday and paid 51.65 for one sheet of 7/16 osb.
On the way home we we talking about how his company can't hire anybody at 16.00/hr and I told him that you would soon work 1/2 a day for one sheet at that hourly rate.

For OSB! That's insane

 

[matt0550]

Not looking good - I predict prices will never actually go back down though they may fall in comparison to inflation over the next few years.

 

[PrairieHunter]

When the people in charge of the resource are held accountable. We literally have sawmills shutting down right now because they can't get wood from the USFS with lumber prices the highest ever. While at the same time they are spending hundreds of millions fighting fires from unutilized wood going up in smoke all over the West. When there is no accountability or focus on wood utilization we end up with Canadian wood to build our houses while paying to manage our timber for wildfires.

Neiman Enterprises Announces the Shut Down of Their Hill City Sawmill - Lumber Blue Book

www.lumberbluebook.com

Literally in the same area at the same time

Crews battling Black Hills wildfires gaining control

NEMO, S.D. (AP) — Firefighters on Tuesday began to gain control of wildfires in the Black Hills of South Dakota that have forced the evacuation of more than 400 homes and closed the Mount Rushmore National Memorial.

apnews.com

 

[Otto Matic]

Start watching for "Freeze Warnings" in Hell.
When Hell freezes over, lumber prices will drop. ....but not until!

 

[Nick87]

When interest rates go up, would be my guess. But I know nothing and that's wishful thinking. I think everyone saying that prices will keep climbing and never come back down is bs.the average consumer cant sustain.

 

[kevinfoerster]

So glad we built our home and deck 3 years ago when we did.

 

[tzone]

Last week our contractor told us to hold off on our three season porch for one year. We are doing a major home remodel and that was part of it.

He expected it to take about a year to calm down a bit.

 

[Gellar]

Am told by a hunting buddy prices are easing back down on the loggers' end of things, but that the bottleneck is at sawmills. Can't keep up with demand, can't convert trees to boards fast enough so prices stay high. Idk how true that is but it makes sense anyway.

Went to Lowe's the other day to buy some pine boards for rebuilding my bed supports. Looked at wood prices... yikes.

I just walked a timber with a logger last week to mark trees. He was taking all the ash, select red and white oak, and only the best walnut. No hard maple or hickory. The prices the guys with standing timber to sell are getting is not reflecting the price at menards.

 

[mxracer317]

Just wait for a market correction. Real Estate or Stock Market. It will happen, and people will lose homes, consumer confidence will drop. Cash will be king. Keep your powder dry. It will happen... realtors and builders will disagree, but it is what it is.

 

[Pucky Freak]

My garage total makeover project I’ve been procrastinating for 4 years is now started. I can’t put it off any longer due to mold/moisture/rot along the baseplates. When I priced the OSB initially it was $300. Just dropped $875 on it Saturday. Measure THREE TIMES, cut once. Made zero errors...felt like I was cutting up sheets of gold.

 

[Nick87]

My garage total makeover project I’ve been procrastinating for 4 years is now started. I can’t put it off any longer due to mold/moisture/rot along the baseplates. When I priced the OSB initially it was $300. Just dropped $875 on it Saturday. Measure THREE TIMES, cut once. Made zero errors...felt like I was cutting up sheets of gold.

Like handling nitro glycerin

 

[Caseknife]

Putting in a garden fence to keep the deer and elk at bay, costing a bundle, good thing it will be a one time thing. Ten 6x6x10 pressure treated posts: $600, 23 6x10 blunt posts at $27 ea, another $600 for wire, and then the raised beds is another major cost, went with metal instead of lumber. Glad we completed our house 3 years ago, would hate to be building a house right now.

 

[schmalts]

I have a bunch of pine that needs to be thinned badly but the mills are not even buying it and if they are the loggers aren't getting paid enough to pay me anything worth letting them cut them. Messed up.