Well that wasn't very good news...
- Thread starter MarvB
- Start date
You'll have to be a little more specific...
I'm certain you have no idea what your chattering about...
Besides, what do back cuts have to do with this topic any way???
Snicker... Snicker....
Did I hit a nerve there Tyler?
Poor guys....
Your lives must be getting pretty boring, or my fan club’s getting a little restless since I decided to leave the antagonistic stuff behind and now they have nothing but themselves for entertainment...
Talk about imploding in on themselves...
You know...
BS loves this sort of thing, or is it you know you'll get your huge ego's bruised by taking him on....
Non of you have refuted a thing I've stated above or the last few days in other threads, only chased after ancient history...
Lets use a little imagination and put some thing new up that hasn't been beat to death...
BuzzH
Well-known member
The cheese said, "Non of you have refuted a thing I've stated"
Riggggghhhhhhttttttttttt.
Riggggghhhhhhttttttttttt.
Nope. In fact, you're about the only one that brings that topic up. I just find it pretty hypocritical/funny that you attempt to insult folks with something that you're guilty of.
If you want to have some real fun, why don't you try reviving the Survival section...
noharleyyet
Well-known member
SSDD...squared
cjcj
New member
I guess "the cheese" wins another onehump... since the facts are intact and some had to resort to his income/lifestyle/ and chainsawing abilities
BigHornRam
Well-known member
"*disclaimer for 'protest write-in' (euphamism)
Let's see if I understand: people who watch nascar and/or little people wrestling who either vote (but not for Buzz's protest write-in) or failed to vote due to programming/poll dates, are the problem.
People who didn't vote for Kerry, but did vote for Buzz's write-in, but didn't motivate enough of the nascar/little people wrestling watchers to vote for Buzz's protest write-in, are the problem.
People who couldn't stomach Kerry or Gore (shit, how many could that be?) and voted for an actual candidate (not a protest write-in) are the problem.
People who are assumed to lack the intellectual capacity to meet Buzz's magic paygrade are the problem.
Devious/subsidized (but not smarter) people who make more money than Buzz are the problem.
...damn diesel trucks, carry on Marv."
That was the last election, Ken. Buzz is an Obama boy this time around. Just too much of a pussy to admit it in front of us bitter clingers!
Let's see if I understand: people who watch nascar and/or little people wrestling who either vote (but not for Buzz's protest write-in) or failed to vote due to programming/poll dates, are the problem.
People who didn't vote for Kerry, but did vote for Buzz's write-in, but didn't motivate enough of the nascar/little people wrestling watchers to vote for Buzz's protest write-in, are the problem.
People who couldn't stomach Kerry or Gore (shit, how many could that be?) and voted for an actual candidate (not a protest write-in) are the problem.
People who are assumed to lack the intellectual capacity to meet Buzz's magic paygrade are the problem.
Devious/subsidized (but not smarter) people who make more money than Buzz are the problem.
...damn diesel trucks, carry on Marv."
That was the last election, Ken. Buzz is an Obama boy this time around. Just too much of a pussy to admit it in front of us bitter clingers!
MarvB
Well-known member
Wow…a guy leaves for the weekend and….
This will probably end up LONG and ramblin but WTF...no one has to read it.
Anyway, to not address the pissing match but to give my thoughts, Buzz you’re right and your wrong to some degree (I know you hate that word, but I’m entitled to my opinion, least that’s what I learned in collage) Fact is this hasn't caught me by surprise- it’s a sector (energy) I deal with everyday, and I hate many/most of the “incentives” (I call them subsidies) afford by the gubbmint for NEARLY ALL of our industries. Be it farming, big oil, or ???? I’m more of a let the chips settle and you (the company) bear the burden kinda guy- I think there are SERIOUS flaws in the energy sector and the whole “give them a break so they will expand and explore” thing is a definite fallacy. If I can produce a product that I can make a decent percentage return on, why should I be paid by a third party (and that is what these “incentives” amount to) to locate and produce more of what I’m already being (well) paid to do by the consumer? Expansion should already be part of my business plan! If the low fruit is picked, then charge more BUT continue to go up the tree.
Secondly, I do think there needs to be a degree of windfall profit taxation when the industry cannot prove it is adequately putting funds back into the infrastructure and or exploration ON THERE OWN. There is (market wise) nothing wrong with periods of above-average profits in a highly cyclical industry. But the profits are now at a point where they more than compensate for the risk and cost of capital to replace the oil being pumped. This is what economists call rents and the ability to sustain rent-like profits is a pretty good symptom of an imperfectly competitive market. And re-opening old fields just because you’ve driven up the price enough to make them affordable IS NOT new exploration and that is a serious fuggin loop-hole IMHO.
People talk about the oil and gas markets as if they were really free markets. They're not! Most of the world's oil is still being controlled by government-owned oil monopolies, which conspire with each other to fix the world price. The downstream market has become highly concentrated, giving way to oligopolistic behavior we all now see. The government has all sorts of incentives it gives the industry, and sets royalties for publicly owned oil and gas. US oil companies made billions over the first quarter but have yet to build a “new” refinery in over 20 years, which of course continues to limit supply. It’s not to say that they haven’t been getting more production out of existing facilities through expansion (which is a lot easier and cheaper than building a whole new refinery) but it sure wouldn’t hurt us consumers if a few new refineries were built. The market demand is certainly there.
But with what I have read and what I see (again, note the word “I” MY opinion) you can be pretty sure the big refiners understand that THEIR top priority is to keep the supply side tight. If a 5 percent increase in regional supply results in a 30 percent decrease in price, and somebody has a 35 percent market share, it’s not a particularly good deal for THEM to build a refinery! Also the crack spread (spread between crude oil and the equivalent price of a gallon of gasoline) has been over 50 cents (historically it’s about 20 cents). That tells me that crude prices aren't the only thing driving gas prices and the refinery shortage is now as much, or greater, part of the problem.
This all being said, I don’t think (My ORIGINAL premise behind the post) a change in POTUS is going to change the fact that the industry has an extremely aging infrastructure and that the lack of attention to this is going to bite us in the ass (both financially and environmentally). Sorry but it dates back preBush, the average age of offshore rigs is 25 years, and subsea systems may be even older. Of the more than 3,800 offshore structures in the Gulf of Mexico, nearly 2,000 are operating beyond their original design life. Hell the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System in Prudhoe Bay is some of the “newest” infrastructure in the industry and BP evidently felt it more prudent slap on a new coat of primer and pay $20 million in fines and restitution than to have a decent preventative maintenance program! So yeah, it burns my butt that companies would rather shell out $$ due to enforcement under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act than to step up and do something that would be beneficial for THEM and the consumer in the long run. The near-term-profit focus of oil industry management will be biting us all hard and that’s far beyond that $4+ a gallon I was talking about.
Soapbox surrendered…..
This will probably end up LONG and ramblin but WTF...no one has to read it.
Anyway, to not address the pissing match but to give my thoughts, Buzz you’re right and your wrong to some degree (I know you hate that word, but I’m entitled to my opinion, least that’s what I learned in collage
) Fact is this hasn't caught me by surprise- it’s a sector (energy) I deal with everyday, and I hate many/most of the “incentives” (I call them subsidies) afford by the gubbmint for NEARLY ALL of our industries. Be it farming, big oil, or ???? I’m more of a let the chips settle and you (the company) bear the burden kinda guy- I think there are SERIOUS flaws in the energy sector and the whole “give them a break so they will expand and explore” thing is a definite fallacy. If I can produce a product that I can make a decent percentage return on, why should I be paid by a third party (and that is what these “incentives” amount to) to locate and produce more of what I’m already being (well) paid to do by the consumer? Expansion should already be part of my business plan! If the low fruit is picked, then charge more BUT continue to go up the tree. Secondly, I do think there needs to be a degree of windfall profit taxation when the industry cannot prove it is adequately putting funds back into the infrastructure and or exploration ON THERE OWN. There is (market wise) nothing wrong with periods of above-average profits in a highly cyclical industry. But the profits are now at a point where they more than compensate for the risk and cost of capital to replace the oil being pumped. This is what economists call rents and the ability to sustain rent-like profits is a pretty good symptom of an imperfectly competitive market. And re-opening old fields just because you’ve driven up the price enough to make them affordable IS NOT new exploration and that is a serious fuggin loop-hole IMHO.
People talk about the oil and gas markets as if they were really free markets. They're not! Most of the world's oil is still being controlled by government-owned oil monopolies, which conspire with each other to fix the world price. The downstream market has become highly concentrated, giving way to oligopolistic behavior we all now see. The government has all sorts of incentives it gives the industry, and sets royalties for publicly owned oil and gas. US oil companies made billions over the first quarter but have yet to build a “new” refinery in over 20 years, which of course continues to limit supply. It’s not to say that they haven’t been getting more production out of existing facilities through expansion (which is a lot easier and cheaper than building a whole new refinery) but it sure wouldn’t hurt us consumers if a few new refineries were built. The market demand is certainly there.
But with what I have read and what I see (again, note the word “I” MY opinion) you can be pretty sure the big refiners understand that THEIR top priority is to keep the supply side tight. If a 5 percent increase in regional supply results in a 30 percent decrease in price, and somebody has a 35 percent market share, it’s not a particularly good deal for THEM to build a refinery! Also the crack spread (spread between crude oil and the equivalent price of a gallon of gasoline) has been over 50 cents (historically it’s about 20 cents). That tells me that crude prices aren't the only thing driving gas prices and the refinery shortage is now as much, or greater, part of the problem.
This all being said, I don’t think (My ORIGINAL premise behind the post) a change in POTUS is going to change the fact that the industry has an extremely aging infrastructure and that the lack of attention to this is going to bite us in the ass (both financially and environmentally). Sorry but it dates back preBush, the average age of offshore rigs is 25 years, and subsea systems may be even older. Of the more than 3,800 offshore structures in the Gulf of Mexico, nearly 2,000 are operating beyond their original design life. Hell the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System in Prudhoe Bay is some of the “newest” infrastructure in the industry and BP evidently felt it more prudent slap on a new coat of primer and pay $20 million in fines and restitution than to have a decent preventative maintenance program! So yeah, it burns my butt that companies would rather shell out $$ due to enforcement under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act than to step up and do something that would be beneficial for THEM and the consumer in the long run. The near-term-profit focus of oil industry management will be biting us all hard and that’s far beyond that $4+ a gallon I was talking about.
Soapbox surrendered…..
JoseCuervo
New member
Marv,
Not sure if I agree with your premise that the refiners are to blame. The refiners are not making "unfair" or windfall profits. You can buy Valero for a PE of 6.5. Hardly a premium. I think they are spending $3.8 billion, IIRC, on capital improvements next year. Not sure about you, but that is almost like "real money"....
Not sure if I agree with your premise that the refiners are to blame. The refiners are not making "unfair" or windfall profits. You can buy Valero for a PE of 6.5. Hardly a premium. I think they are spending $3.8 billion, IIRC, on capital improvements next year. Not sure about you, but that is almost like "real money"....
JoseCuervo
New member
I guess "the cheese" wins another onehump... since the facts are intact and some had to resort to his income/lifestyle/ and chainsawing abilities
CJ,
Please quote ANY "fact" that The Cheese has in his posts in this thread.
You can do it, find that fact that The Cheese relies on to make his point.
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Here's a fact....while Russ has you on ignore, you have no cheese to compliment your whine.
JoseCuervo
New member
Do you agree with the "facts" The Cheese has posted, or are you just dutifully performing your obligations as President of The Cheese Fan Club?
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Sure 'guner', kinda like your kiss ass arrangement to pile on anytime Buzz signals Russ's presence. Funny thing is, Chaser doesn't read your shit...burns you ass too, don't it?
Funny stuff CJ...
So this is the silver bullet ol' guner figured he had for so many years and wouldn't divulge, then takes some thing like 5-6 years finally getting around to putting it on the table, a little lame if you ask any one besides me or Buzz...
If I'm correct in assuming which picture he's referring to, I was called clear across a fire with a squad to put out a stump fire the "Shots" hadn't fully disposed of, simple as that, end of story...
You can write what every your "imagination" dictates past that, you guys will any way...
Besides, I'm betting he (guner) has never had much experience with a saw, so wouldn't be a good judge to what he was looking at any way, any thing past that is just second guessing on his part...
Great post Marv...
Ken
So this is the silver bullet ol' guner figured he had for so many years and wouldn't divulge, then takes some thing like 5-6 years finally getting around to putting it on the table, a little lame if you ask any one besides me or Buzz...
If I'm correct in assuming which picture he's referring to, I was called clear across a fire with a squad to put out a stump fire the "Shots" hadn't fully disposed of, simple as that, end of story...
You can write what every your "imagination" dictates past that, you guys will any way...
Besides, I'm betting he (guner) has never had much experience with a saw, so wouldn't be a good judge to what he was looking at any way, any thing past that is just second guessing on his part...
Great post Marv...
Ken BuzzH
Well-known member
Cheese,
Did you notice how similar Marvs post was to the things I said?
My post "cjcj, tell me...
You dont think certain things like wars, oligopolies, tax breaks, strategic reserves, being buddy buddy with Saudi/opec etc. etc. etc. have any effect on oil prices?
You also dont believe that congress or the president have any influence over these things?"
From Marvs post: "People talk about the oil and gas markets as if they were really free markets. They're not! Most of the world's oil is still being controlled by government-owned oil monopolies, which conspire with each other to fix the world price. The downstream market has become highly concentrated, giving way to oligopolistic behavior we all now see.
Further from Marv: "I hate many/most of the “incentives” (I call them subsidies) afford by the gubbmint
Looks pretty similar...funny how that works.
Did you notice how similar Marvs post was to the things I said?
My post "cjcj, tell me...
You dont think certain things like wars, oligopolies, tax breaks, strategic reserves, being buddy buddy with Saudi/opec etc. etc. etc. have any effect on oil prices?
You also dont believe that congress or the president have any influence over these things?"
From Marvs post: "People talk about the oil and gas markets as if they were really free markets. They're not! Most of the world's oil is still being controlled by government-owned oil monopolies, which conspire with each other to fix the world price. The downstream market has become highly concentrated, giving way to oligopolistic behavior we all now see.
Further from Marv: "I hate many/most of the “incentives” (I call them subsidies) afford by the gubbmint
Looks pretty similar...funny how that works.
guppie9
New member
Marv,
If I could give you a standing ovation over the internet, I would be doing it right now.
Awesome post.
If I could give you a standing ovation over the internet, I would be doing it right now.
Awesome post.
MarvB
Well-known member
Nope Jose anything with a $B is not chump change, but that being said, I never get all warm fuzzy with anything in the E-sector when companies throw out the “we’re spending XX on capital improvements”. Have seen it too often where they are just realigning the books. Also a lot of these cap improvements in energy are environmental fixes (not saying they aren’t necessary, but saying they won’t shore up the antiquated system nor increase the supply side) that have been legislated. Plus anything from communications, computer systems, office remodels for the fat azzz CEO’s, etc., tend to be lumped into cap imp projects….especially if it comes with a tax break attached to it!
Where I differ from Buzz is that in what I’m relaying, or attempting to, is that the nuts, bolts, and assorted metal that’s keeping this listing ship afloat ain’t looking so good and that, duh…, ultimately it’s you and I that are gonna be hit again no matter who is in the off-centered circle we call the oval office. Kinda like an exaggerated version of when they close down the local Nampa gas-n-go because they’ve got underground tank leakage…you can still get your corn nuts and barley pop but not much in the way of petroleum products. You ever notice how those tank change outs see to take forever? That’s pretty much the same thing (different scale) of what we’ve built in this country and how we’ve maintained it. I don’t see a change in presidential silverware patterns making a dent in something that has been allowed to slide for this long a time….hopefully I’m wrong!
Where I differ from Buzz is that in what I’m relaying, or attempting to, is that the nuts, bolts, and assorted metal that’s keeping this listing ship afloat ain’t looking so good and that, duh…, ultimately it’s you and I that are gonna be hit again no matter who is in the off-centered circle we call the oval office. Kinda like an exaggerated version of when they close down the local Nampa gas-n-go because they’ve got underground tank leakage…you can still get your corn nuts and barley pop but not much in the way of petroleum products. You ever notice how those tank change outs see to take forever? That’s pretty much the same thing (different scale) of what we’ve built in this country and how we’ve maintained it. I don’t see a change in presidential silverware patterns making a dent in something that has been allowed to slide for this long a time….hopefully I’m wrong!
JoseCuervo
New member
NoHarley,
Do you add anything to these discussions other than your penchant of using big words to profess your admiration of The Cheese's wisdom? Have you ever considered commenting on the topic at hand, or are you just content to be a cheerleader for The Cheese?
JoseCuervo
New member
Marv,
I don't know, you may be old and cynical and think that a CEO is getting a $3.8B office, but when VLO says they are spending $1.4B on a gas/oil Hydrocracker in St. Charles and another $2.4b on a hydrocracker/Coker in Port Arthur makes me think that refiners are adding capacity back into the industry and not just lining the pockets of Execs and Me.
And best of all, these investments are focused on being able to use Sour crude to make the Ultra Low Sulfer Diesels..... Think about that, the Market driving somebody to make investments to use lower cost crude (vs Sweet) and make a product with increasing demand (ULSD).
And, should we be investing in old energy infrastructure, or should we be investing in new energy developments? Remember SunPower, a company old BigWhore thought was a ridiculous idea???
I don't know, you may be old and cynical and think that a CEO is getting a $3.8B office, but when VLO says they are spending $1.4B on a gas/oil Hydrocracker in St. Charles and another $2.4b on a hydrocracker/Coker in Port Arthur makes me think that refiners are adding capacity back into the industry and not just lining the pockets of Execs and Me.
And best of all, these investments are focused on being able to use Sour crude to make the Ultra Low Sulfer Diesels..... Think about that, the Market driving somebody to make investments to use lower cost crude (vs Sweet) and make a product with increasing demand (ULSD).
And, should we be investing in old energy infrastructure, or should we be investing in new energy developments? Remember SunPower, a company old BigWhore thought was a ridiculous idea???
MarvB
Well-known member
So Jose do you think that Valero’s the norm?
I’ve read the rags as well….granted they were the Fortune Magazines #1 best big company to work for in 2007 and earned north of $7/share (they even raised their dividend rate by nearly 50%) last year but even at that their capital spending was ¾ $billion under budget. I’m all for cleaner fuels and definitely support new technology but also don’t see it matching decline
of the existing that we’ve just kept bubble-gummed together.
Old and cynical? Maybe…but maybe it could be that after 17 years in this industry I also see some of the forest through the trees. Granted there may (as $200bbl is in sight) some final supply side response in the refining sector but is still a going to remain a totally oligopolistic market for a long, long, time.
Also the move to sour is nothing "new" but you tell me if you really think the price/cost differential will actually make it to the consumer level or just do more pocket lining for the bigs? I remember five years +/- ago when LNG was going to be the savior for us nat gas generators...that hasn't panned out real well either, they just raised the price to match convential and pocketed most of the difference!
So tell me, are you now a SUPPORTER of big oil interests? Kinda like being just a little pregnant isn’t it???
I’ve read the rags as well….granted they were the Fortune Magazines #1 best big company to work for in 2007 and earned north of $7/share (they even raised their dividend rate by nearly 50%) last year but even at that their capital spending was ¾ $billion under budget. I’m all for cleaner fuels and definitely support new technology but also don’t see it matching decline
of the existing that we’ve just kept bubble-gummed together.
Old and cynical? Maybe…but maybe it could be that after 17 years in this industry I also see some of the forest through the trees. Granted there may (as $200bbl is in sight) some final supply side response in the refining sector but is still a going to remain a totally oligopolistic market for a long, long, time.
Also the move to sour is nothing "new" but you tell me if you really think the price/cost differential will actually make it to the consumer level or just do more pocket lining for the bigs? I remember five years +/- ago when LNG was going to be the savior for us nat gas generators...that hasn't panned out real well either, they just raised the price to match convential and pocketed most of the difference!
So tell me, are you now a SUPPORTER of big oil interests? Kinda like being just a little pregnant isn’t it???
