Ukraine / Russia

[Cheesehead]

I know and respect how we try to keep HT neutered from political conversations. That said, I saw the below photo of a child’s stuffed animal that exactly mirrored a stuffed hedgehog my 3 year old son has. Choked up a bit. I’d prefer keeping the discussion clear of R/D entanglements. But damn, it feels like we are entering an end of the Post Cold War period. Curious how the HT crew feels how this is going to damage the economic situation we live in? Russia as a major exporter of gas/wheat/nickel/steel/rare earth metals?…general sense of how that will cause further inflation if they are cut off from SWIFT / export markets. I think we all hope things sizzle out but this seems far more serious than Chechnya/ Balkans.

Not interested in partisan fights but more reflections from those who have lived through these sorts of things and have insights .

 

[Nick87]

The elephant in the room...

 

[DouglasR]

I’m gonna try to skin up a 14er tomorrow.
Hope this shit holds off till after then

 

[DouglasR]

-Dougs

 

[Wildabeest]

I’m less concerned with short term economic impacts than I am the trend towards crazy authoritarians with nuclear weapons running the world. God help us.

 

[Nick87]

I’m less concerned with short term economic impacts than I am the trend towards crazy authoritarians with nuclear weapons running the world. God help us.

Wondering just how short term its going to be.

 

[Cheesehead]

Wondering just how short term its going to be.

Yeah, my Midwestern sensibilities are causing me to understate how ******* concerned I am

 

[Nick87]

If your not concerned you ain't paying attention.

 

[TOGIE]

i just have an uneasy feeling that there is an inevitability that this going to turn in to a much broader, costlier, bloodier conflict than just ukraine v. russia.

putin seems unhinged and willing to dig in deeper on this than i dare want to believe or think. it's making me nervous.

 

[Cheesehead]

I’m less concerned with short term economic impacts than I am the trend towards crazy authoritarians with nuclear weapons running the world. God help us.

It’s a fair point. Nuclear arms are super weird in how they enable and disable countries to attack other countries

1) If you have nukes or can develop them, do it. Example A (which btw, will immediately destroy any incentive for countries to mitigate nuclear programs

Why Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons — and what that means in an invasion by Russia

Three decades ago, the newly independent country of Ukraine was briefly the third-largest nuclear power in the world. A lot has changed since then.

www.npr.org

 

[thomas89]

Good news about living next to a nuclear base is I won’t have to worry about the fallout. I’ll be lucky to see a bright flash if anything at all and that’ll be all she wrote. No sense worrying about it ultimately, we’ll all be lucky if a bit more inflation and $5/gallon gas is all that happens.

 

[Cheesehead]

2) once you have nuclear weapons you actually have an increase in the risk of conventional war in your periphery. This is called the stability - instability paradox. This exactly what Russia is doing now. I can invade Ukraine and you can’t stop me if it isn’t existential to you. Otherwise I have nukes

 

[SAJ-99]

This is probably the most serious geopolitical event we have seen in 50yrs? Certainly debatable, but it involves a nuclear power so feels more serious. It will probably have ramifications for decades, but unknown exactly how until the dust settles. The west has some responsibility because we talked Ukraine into giving up nuclear weapons after USSR fell. Not sure this would play out the same or at all if they still had nukes. But then if they had some crazy pro-Russian govt then we have that to worry about. Hard to say, but sending some weapons now seems like the least we can do.

Economic effects in the immediate term will be inflationary. But don’t overreact. Russia’s GDP was about that of Texas. Significant sure, but the world can work around it. Higher prices and logistical problems will lower global growth rates. Kicking them off SWIFT is a major move but Russia will move to alternate systems (which China would love, too) and eventually the impact would decline. I read they have been planning for such a move since the idea was floated in 2014.

This is certainly a mess and no one knows where it might end. That is the scary part.

 

[DouglasR]

But doesn’t their best boat run on something shitier than diesel?

 

[Cheesehead]

This is probably the most serious geopolitical event we have seen in 50yrs? Certainly debatable, but it involves a nuclear power so feels more serious. It will probably have ramifications for decades, but unknown exactly how until the dust settles. The west has some responsibility because we talked Ukraine into giving up nuclear weapons after USSR fell. Not sure this would play out the same or at all if they still had nukes. But then if they had some crazy pro-Russian govt then we have that to worry about. Hard to say, but sending some weapons now seems like the least we can do.

Economic effects in the immediate term will be inflationary. But don’t overreact. Russia’s GDP was about that of Texas. Significant sure, but the world can work around it. Higher prices and logistical problems will lower global growth rates. Kicking them off SWIFT is a major move but Russia will move to alternate systems (which China would love, too) and eventually the impact would decline. I read they have been planning for such a move since the idea was floated in 2014.

This is certainly a mess and no one knows where it might end. That is the scary part.

@SAJ-99 — I genuinely hope we meet up for beers someday, maybe with @neffa3 and @wllm1313. First, second and third rounds are on me. After that, I’m easy.

My head is with yours on this. Although I do feel that even though its overall GDP is low, the leverage moment right now is if the US can force the EU off the Russian gas teat, which seems to be happening.

 

[Irrelevant]

@SAJ-99 — I genuinely hope we meet up for beers someday, maybe with @neffa3 and @wllm1313. First, second and third rounds are on me. After that, I’m easy.

My head is with yours on this. Although I do feel that even though it’s overall GDP is low, the leverage moment right now is if the US can leverage the EU off the Russian gas teat, which seems to be happening.

Did I hear beer? I'm in.

 

[DouglasR]

That’s the only one they have.
Look at that pos smoke

 

[Irrelevant]

@SAJ-99 — I genuinely hope we meet up for beers someday, maybe with @neffa3 and @wllm1313. First, second and third rounds are on me. After that, I’m easy.

My head is with yours on this. Although I do feel that even though its overall GDP is low, the leverage moment right now is if the US can force the EU off the Russian gas teat, which seems to be happening.

My struggle is what is the "right" thing to do? I can't stand seeing kids harmed, and I thought everyone was in agreement that boundaries should be set. But I also don't want to start ww3 over putin, I mean he's like 70, death isn't that far off...

 

[Cheesehead]

My struggle is what is the "right" thing to do? I can't stand seeing kids harmed, and I thought everyone was in agreement that boundaries should be set. But I also don't want to start ww3 over putin, I mean he's like 70, death isn't that far off...

Not an expert but umm, kinda what Biden is / will do / and has been doing? He’s not as dumb as he appears (he appears plenty dumb).
Provide ample off ramps for the Russians (they are domestically challenged)…continue that but now work to arm the locals in Ukraine in particular with anti tank / anti aircraft stuff / easily applied anti personnel hardware…best case they fend off the Ruskies, worst case they make life hell for them as occupiers (ie, Iran in Iraq v US)
Meanwhile we deal with the fact that fundamentally the EU has had a free ride for 3/4 of a century via American overwatch. We now make them pay (not a Trump fan but he got this part right)…reinvigorate NATO and also further strengthen AUKUS because Asia is next in terms of challenges

 

[MarvB]

But I also don't want to start ww3 over putin, I mean he's like 70, death isn't that far off...

Death is just an assassination away at all times in those countries…

Unrelated (kinda) but more so unimportant here today, got to witness the local tavern owner throwing/smashing bottles of Stoli on the back patio. NOT a Putin fan, he was spun up since the whole Olympic doping thing.