Ukraine / Russia

[Scott85]

1- How viable would any explosive device be after being exposed to salt water for 3 months?

2- Why would any country plant an explosive device and let it sit for 3 months to allow for detection by the other country were there is a chance it can come back and be pinned on you?

 

[RobertD]

1- How viable would any explosive device be after being exposed to salt water for 3 months?

2- Why would any country plant an explosive device and let it sit for 3 months to allow for detection by the other country were there is a chance it can come back and be pinned on you?

1. Sealed in a plastic container?

2. IDK, but a good question worth asking

 

[RobertD]

No idea to the actual veracity of the claims made in that blog post. Given how it was “published” I assume that the author shopped this to major outlets but couldn’t produce or refused to give sources that could be verified.

Considering the absolute wealth of stuff attributed to unnamed/unverified sources but still published by established media entities, I think it's worth considering additional reasons for why the author chose to self publish this story. Today's media environment all but mandates that those with heterodox views/arguments find something like Substack to publish their work

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Considering the absolute wealth of stuff attributed to unnamed/unverified sources but still published by established media entities, I think it's worth considering additional reasons for why the author chose to self publish this story. Today's media environment all but mandates that those with heterodox views/arguments find something like Substack to publish their work

...

I lean towards outlets like the NY Times/Fox Business/NPR still try to adhere to standards about sourcing/verifying information, and that folks today are too? comfortable with speculation and conjecture.

Lean towards to be clear.

I think with the fake news BS, an institution even seemingly to have standards is considered mandating heterodoxy.

Not trying to give anyone a free pass.

 

[BigHornRam]

Interesting that this story was reported shortly after the Seymour Hersh story broke. Coincidence I suppose?

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/08/1155401602/malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-putin-missiles-investigation

 

[SAJ-99]

Interesting that this story was reported shortly after the Seymour Hersh story broke. Coincidence I suppose?

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/08/1155401602/malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-putin-missiles-investigation

There is no coincidence when you are trying to build a good conspiracy theory.

 

[RobertD]

...

I lean towards outlets like the NY Times/Fox Business/NPR still try to adhere to standards about sourcing/verifying information, and that folks today are too? comfortable with speculation and conjecture.

Lean towards to be clear.

I think with the fake news BS, an institution even seemingly to have standards is considered mandating heterodoxy.

Not trying to give anyone a free pass.

Understand that perspective. It's difficult to know who and when to trust. And probably true that no entity is all of one and none of the other.

 

[BigHornRam]

Leak to the Times to create a new narrative. What a cesspool!

U.S. Thinks Pro-Ukrainian Group Blew Up Nord Stream Pipelines, Report Says

The mysterious undersea explosions have drawn months of speculation, with observers pointing to Russia or one of its opponents—including Ukraine or a NATO country—as possible culprits.

www.forbes.com

 

[Nameless Range]

This thread is over a year old. Reading back on what I wrote or was reading myself 12 months ago, I definitely feel less conviction regarding that which I hope for and feel strongly about with this whole situation.

To be more clear, I believe there still is Good Guy/Bad Guy paradigm through which to look at the war. That said, I am increasingly uncomfortable with an emotion-driven foreign policy with its ra-ra marketing, and in fact think we are engaged in magical thinking about how dangerous escalation with a nuclear power is. Existential reality, whether we like it or not, can really bring irrelevancy to the discussion about who's the Good Guy and who's the Bad Guy. Throw in shady narratives like the one BHR shared above, and it's clear that things are complicated and a dogmatism of "No Matter What (President Biden)" is oversimplified and dangerous.

The potential for a choice between Peace and Justice, which often don't necessarily coincide (Per BigFin's marriage advice) exists in the foreign policy realm too. Choosing one over the other could have insane implications.

 

[Tomahawk]

Perhaps they will be satisfied if we just give them the Sudetenland err I mean Donbas.

 

[Rhcuam]

Leak to the Times to create a new narrative. What a cesspool!

U.S. Thinks Pro-Ukrainian Group Blew Up Nord Stream Pipelines, Report Says

The mysterious undersea explosions have drawn months of speculation, with observers pointing to Russia or one of its opponents—including Ukraine or a NATO country—as possible culprits.

www.forbes.com

The US believes an unknown pro Ukrainian group, otherwise known as the United States, may have blew up or contributed to the Nord stream pipe line explosion.
That’s what the title of the article should be.

 

[BigHornRam]

The US believes an unknown pro Ukrainian group, otherwise known as the United States, may have blew up or contributed to the Nord stream pipe line explosion.
That’s what the title of the article should be.

Russia has Pravda and we have the New York Times.

 

[BigHornRam]

This thread is over a year old. Reading back on what I wrote or was reading myself 12 months ago, I definitely feel less conviction regarding that which I hope for and feel strongly about with this whole situation.

To be more clear, I believe there still is Good Guy/Bad Guy paradigm through which to look at the war. That said, I am increasingly uncomfortable with an emotion-driven foreign policy with its ra-ra marketing, and in fact think we are engaged in magical thinking about how dangerous escalation with a nuclear power is. Existential reality, whether we like it or not, can really bring irrelevancy to the discussion about who's the Good Guy and who's the Bad Guy. Throw in shady narratives like the one BHR shared above, and it's clear that things are complicated and a dogmatism of "No Matter What (President Biden)" is oversimplified and dangerous.

The potential for a choice between Peace and Justice, which often don't necessarily coincide (Per BigFin's marriage advice) exists in the foreign policy realm too. Choosing one over the other could have insane implications.

We are heading where I thought this is all going, a year ago. World war. A little quicker than I thought would happen maybe. All of a sudden the Wuhan lab leak theory is no longer a conspiracy. China is the enemy now. But let's keep listening to the experts, they do know what is best for us after all.

 

[more_cowbell]

There is no coincidence when you are trying to build a good conspiracy theory.

I heard someone the other day say it's not a conspiracy when there's a convergence of interests (like money)

 

[Deleted member 28227]

This thread is over a year old. Reading back on what I wrote or was reading myself 12 months ago, I definitely feel less conviction regarding that which I hope for and feel strongly about with this whole situation.

To be more clear, I believe there still is Good Guy/Bad Guy paradigm through which to look at the war. That said, I am increasingly uncomfortable with an emotion-driven foreign policy with its ra-ra marketing, and in fact think we are engaged in magical thinking about how dangerous escalation with a nuclear power is. Existential reality, whether we like it or not, can really bring irrelevancy to the discussion about who's the Good Guy and who's the Bad Guy. Throw in shady narratives like the one BHR shared above, and it's clear that things are complicated and a dogmatism of "No Matter What (President Biden)" is oversimplified and dangerous.

The potential for a choice between Peace and Justice, which often don't necessarily coincide (Per BigFin's marriage advice) exists in the foreign policy realm too. Choosing one over the other could have insane implications.

I think you have to separate propaganda ie "marketing" from military strategy and geopolitics. Honestly nothing in the current situation IMHO is anything new or different than any war we've been a party.

Not sure how you resolve the conflict, part of me wonders if a peace deal involves giving Russia some of Ukraine and then giving Ukrainians nukes.

Kinda think that might be the move with Taiwan... I mean that is essentially how China and Russia handled North Korea v. US

We are heading where I thought this is all going, a year ago. World war. A little quicker than I thought would happen maybe. All of a sudden the Wuhan lab leak theory is no longer a conspiracy. China is the enemy now. But let's keep listening to the experts, they do know what is best for us after all.

I think that's a little Tucker C overstatement. The Chinese economy is entirely based on manufacturing the world's goods.

It's biggest partners are
EU
US
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
...

You get waaaay down the list before you get to an "ally". The Chinese economy is not the Russian economy it can't withstand massive sanctions. China has always been a rival and likely will for a long time, but I don't think we are particularly close to war.

 

[more_cowbell]

Isn't China's "plan" to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027? And if that's their stated/known goal, maybe it will be sooner (if ever). I'm not saying they will or they won't, but they have announced an intent that they want Taiwan back. That's what Russia did

 

[Rhcuam]

I think you have to separate propaganda ie "marketing" from military strategy and geopolitics. Honestly nothing in the current situation IMHO is anything new or different than any war we've been a party.

Not sure how you resolve the conflict, part of me wonders if a peace deal involves giving Russia some of Ukraine and then giving Ukrainians nukes.

Realistically, I think Ukraine’s going to have to give up Donbas region, what Russia currently holds. Their defenses are entirely based off of aid. Hell their entire country is being funded and propped up by other countries at this point. Eventually they’re going to run out of people to feed into the trench style warfare.
Giving that Ukrainians nukes would be like giving my teenage son and his buddies a flamethrower. I see nothing good coming from that. It would more than likely be a non-starter with the Russians.

 

[Nameless Range]

Honestly nothing in the current situation IMHO is anything new or different than any war we've been a party.

Not sure how you resolve the conflict, part of me wonders if a peace deal involves giving Russia some of Ukraine and then giving Ukrainians nukes.

Kinda think that might be the move with Taiwan... I mean that is essentially how China and Russia handled North Korea v. US

I think that first sentence is my concern. Numerous instances of proxy wars over the last 60 years escalating tensions between nuclear powers, and numerous instances of nuclear holocaust being averted by the skin of our teeth - either overtly or via errors in information. Either way, the magical thinking I refer to is the idea that Bayesian Inference against the last 60 years can meaningfully guide us through the next 60, when a desperate world leader could either snap or make an honest error in the assessment of a situation that reduces countries (civilization?) to ash. This includes North Korea and is where I become uncertain. I can see the argument that a country having nukes is a great deterrent to their destruction and in fact the most effective one. I totally admit it's the one that points to actual history. But, I can also imagine a future historian discussing the near end of civilization that occurred sometime in the future to us that looks at the proliferation of nuclear weapons - the literal acquisition of more and more separate contingents having them - as obviously being an act that increased the likelihood of their use. Increasing the amount of countries that have nukes, a case could be made that we are quite literally pissing on a salient theory of probability.

The Sudetenland analogy falls short to me. What would Europe look like today - what would the world's response have been - if the Nazi's had nukes? I think the answer is unsatisfying.

There's convincing analysis out there that our engagement in Ukraine and our contribution to the effort has exceeded a threshold that has unsatisfactorily weakened our capability in a theatre that is far more meaningful to us, that being the Asia-Pacific region. If China, as they allude to, will invade Taiwan, or in a related effort establishes a shipping blockade that would absolutely effect American interests, we will have some tough decisions on how to engage with another nuclear power.

I'm not posting this podcast and realistically thinking people who disagree with me should listen, but if you were interested, for me it really made me think.

https://the-realignment.simplecast.com/episodes/348-elbridge-colby

I think nukes make our deeply held and may be even primal paradigms for good guys and bad guys and justice somewhat irrelevant in some discussions. I think many folks, including myself, have a gut reaction to reject that. I am convinced that our brains, and the stories we tell about right and wrong, fall short in navigating such situations because comeuppance may be off the table.

 

[Nick87]

Is any of this hoping to curb hunter numbers and effect point creep? Let's get down to the important stuff.

 

[Nameless Range]

Is any of this hoping to curb hunter numbers and effect point creep? Let's get down to the important stuff.

You have a point. Few things would be more effective at reducing hunter #s and point creep than incinerating potential applicants.