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Ukraine / Russia

Realistically, I think Ukraine’s going to have to give up Donbas region, what Russia currently holds. Their defenses are entirely based off of aid. Hell their entire country is being funded and propped up by other countries at this point. Eventually they’re going to run out of people to feed into the trench style warfare.
Giving that Ukrainians nukes would be like giving my teenage son and his buddies a flamethrower. I see nothing good coming from that. It would more than likely be a non-starter with the Russians.
Agreed on the Donbas.

Russia holds MAD over everyone's head, we can do the same.


The distance between Kyiv and Moscow is shorter than Denver to Bozeman.

If Russia hits Ukraine with anything fallout is going to kill a ton of Russians.

I think giving Ukraine (back) it's nuclear arsenals has a decent chance at preserving peace.
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While all the strategic and moral reasons for being "policeman of the world" remain largely unchanged over the last 50 yrs, our reality on the ground has changed a lot. And that reality is that China has grown into a modern industrial powerhouse. What that means is mere saber rattling or proxy wars will not be enough to save Tawain or S. Korea from China's preferred outcome in both cases. Similarly, if China continues to prop up Russia, the former east block will be in the crosshairs for the next 15+ years and the US cannot alone guarantee current boundaries on two different continents at the same time. Extend that to Iran/Isreal/Palestinian conflicts, where reduced oil demand due to climate regulation and increased US energy independence make a 3rd front conflict even iffier.

What I am saying is that if Russia, China and Iran all choose to act in concert, there is little chance that the US stops them short of all-out global war and likely nuclear exchanges.

At heart, I am a Ronnie-bred cold war warrior who believes strongly we need to preserve a democratic Europe, S. Korea, Tawain and Isreal. In my mind I know that it is impossible at this point and we are just "dead man walking" on these issues. And this sorry state of affairs is almost entirely based on our desire to have cheap stuff made in China, accelerated by allowing them into the WTO. Our greed - both companies and consumers - set this in motion, and I see no turning back. We thought an industrial China would be a democratized China. We thought a Chinese middle class would be a huge destination for US-made goods. We were very wrong about both. We also knew we wanted cheap stuff and cheap labor - and on this we were right. We traded our values and the security of our partners for stuff that fills our landfills. Good job America.
 
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Agreed on the Donbas.

Russia holds MAD over everyone's head, we can do the same.


The distance between Kyiv and Moscow is short than Denver to Bozeman.

If Russia hits Ukraine with anything fallout is going to kill a ton of Russian's.

I think giving Ukraine (back) it's nuclear arsenals has a decent chance at preserving peace.
View attachment 267797
I just don’t have enough faith in the country of Ukraine to manage nuclear weapons due to their history of corruption and turmoil.
Even if a peace deal is done, there could be a coup very much like the US backed one when Zelenskyy came into power, and all the sudden we armed a Russian satellite state.
 
NBC getting you prepped for what's ahead. Not Tucker.


Same with CNN.
“It is regrettable that efforts to persuade and promote talks have been undermined,” Qin said, “as if an invisible hand is pushing the conflict to escalate, taking advantage of the Ukrainian crisis to achieve certain geopolitical intentions.”

Don’t disagree with this at all. The man behind the green curtain has his fingers in everything with no regard for the lives it takes to get there.

Thanks for posting that article.
 
While all the strategic and moral reasons for being "policeman of the world" remain largely unchanged over the last 50 yrs, our reality on the ground has changed a lot. And that reality is that China has grown into a modern industrial powerhouse. What that means is mere saber rattling or proxy wars will not be enough to save Tawain or S. Korea from China's preferred outcome in both cases. Similarly, if China continues to prop up Russia, the former east block will be in the crosshairs for the next 15+ years and the US cannot alone guarantee current boundaries on two different continents at the same time. Extend that to Iran/Isreal/Palestinian conflicts, where reduced oil demand due to climate regulation and increased US energy independence make a 3rd front conflict even iffier.

What I am saying is that if Russia, China and Iran all choose to act in concert, there is little chance that the US stops them short of all-out global war and likely nuclear exchanges.

At heart, I am a Ronnie-bred cold war warrior who believes strongly we need to preserve a democratic Europe, S. Korea, Tawain and Isreal. In my mind I know that it is impossible at this point and we are just "dead man walking" on these issues. And this sorry state of affairs is almost entirely based on our desire to have cheap stuff made in China, accelerated by allowing them into the WTO. Our greed - both companies and consumers - set this in motion, and I see no turning back. We thought an industrial China would be a democratized China. We thought a Chinese middle class would be a huge destination for US-made goods. We were very wrong about both. We also knew we wanted cheap stuff and cheap labor - and on this we were right. We traded our values and the security of our partners for stuff that fills our landfills. Good job America.
Russia has struggled with Ukraine, Iran didn’t make much head way against Iraq during that war, and beside the US China isn’t exactly loved by Japan, S.Korea, and India.

We tend to think about China from a US centric lens, but I’m sure the Chinese calculus about invading Taiwan involves way more than how the US feels about it.

I don’t disagree about global war and nuclear exchanges, I’m just saying it could be India nuking China as much as the US.
 
Russia has struggled with Ukraine, Iran didn’t make much head way against Iraq during that war, and beside the US China isn’t exactly loved by Japan, S.Korea, and India.

We tend to think about China from a US centric lens, but I’m sure the Chinese calculus about invading Taiwan involves way more than how the US feels about it.

I don’t disagree about global war and nuclear exchanges, I’m just saying it could be India nuking China as much as the US.
Or the not fully understood implications of demographic collapse means we have no idea how this will play out . . .

 
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Or the not fully understood implications of demographic collapse means we have no idea how this will play out . . .

So they will look like the US or Japan. Are they are willing to accept lower economic growth? Are we? I wouldn’t think wars solve that demographic problem, but maybe it distracts the plebes.
 
So they will look like the US or Japan. Are they are willing to accept lower economic growth? Are we? I wouldn’t think wars solve that demographic problem, but maybe it distracts the plebes.
Why blow up the world. Turn a super bug loose that whipes out half the population including most of the elderly. The sick bastards running the world right now wouldn't bat an eye.
 
Why blow up the world. Turn a super bug loose that whipes out half the population including most of the elderly. The sick bastards running the world right now wouldn't bat an eye.
Epic failure if they were shooting for 50%. I was hoping my draw odds would improve, but all they did was get worse. Nikki Haley proposed to raise the retirement age to like 77 for those in their 20's. If you are a Gen Z, I'm sure that sounded great (as they retreat to their parent's basement). Humans have gotten really good at keeping the game of life going, even if Mother Nature always wins in the end. There are no reasonable solutions in sight.
 
So they will look like the US or Japan. Are they are willing to accept lower economic growth? Are we? I wouldn’t think wars solve that demographic problem, but maybe it distracts the plebes.
Thanks to immigration, US actually has a fair chance of missing the type of demographic collapse Japan and China are facing. Xenophobia will not serve them well - let's hope Americans resist the anti-immigration cliff some would like to run us off.
 
Thanks to immigration, US actually has a fair chance of missing the type of demographic collapse Japan and China are facing. Xenophobia will not serve them well - let's hope Americans resist the anti-immigration cliff some would like to run us off.
Not a chance. We love cliffs more than proverbial lemmings (real lemmings don't jump from cliffs :) ).
 
Epic failure if they were shooting for 50%. I was hoping my draw odds would improve, but all they did was get worse. Nikki Haley proposed to raise the retirement age to like 77 for those in their 20's. If you are a Gen Z, I'm sure that sounded great (as they retreat to their parent's basement). Humans have gotten really good at keeping the game of life going, even if Mother Nature always wins in the end. There are no reasonable solutions in sight.
I believe covid-19 was sloppy workmanship that got loose on accident. They are working on more lethal viruses now. Next time it will be on purpose. If it whipes out half their population, it will be less mouths to feed.
 
Covid came from nature.
The covid vaccine stopped the virus dead in its tracks by halting transmission (and was the safest vaccine ever made)
A rogue Ukrainian militia probably blew up Nord Stream. The USA or NATO allies had no involvement.


Cigarettes don’t cause cancer.
Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
The Tuskegee experiments never happened.
There’s nothing even questionable about the deaths of JFK or Jeffery Epstein.
The internment of Japanese-American citizens under FDR wasn’t racist and was a calculated and intelligent national security move.

Did I mention that the Taliban have been defeated and could never take Kabul from the superior equipped afghan army?
 
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Re-armed a state that was part of the USSR
would it be a crazy thought to think Ukraine was more stable when it was USSR like 40 years ago? Oh, a year ago I said give Putin Donbass region. The people there over 50 years old think they are Russians.
 

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