Ukraine / Russia

[Nameless Range]

No one knows what will happen. The conversation is interesting and all we have is conjecture about something most experts just got wrong. I have learned a lot I did not know a week ago.

Not to keep spamming with youtubes or podcasts, but one thing recent events has allowed for is those people who are black belts in Russian history and culture to become very relevant. I consume a lot of podcasts. This one was recorded today, and the guest is a PHD in Russian and Soviet Military History, and you can tell he lives to geek out on these things, even in these dark times, and I thought he offered a lot of interesting perspectives and thoughts on current and future events. The Podcast is available on all the typical podcast apps.

 

[morley.tyler]

Vladimir has made it clear for decades that his goal is to rebuild the territory of the Soviet Union and that, to him, the break-up of the USSR is the greatest embarrassment in history.
@Big Fin, as a Finlander, I appreciate your family's history with that empire. I also fear that you're right. If Ukraine falls, we will get to see if President Eisenhower's Domino Theory holds water. If the West allows Putin to annex Ukraine, I fear Ike will be proven correct.
One thing we're not talking about is the other shoe... If the West is distracted by Russia and her misadventures, might Xi and China take advantage and move on to Taiwan?

Also, as a kid who grew up in the Reagan years, 60 miles from a B-52 Nuclear base, we all knew we'd die in the first wave. As a kid, it bothered me. As a parent, it scares the shit out of me.

Blessed are the peacemakers...

 

[brymoore]

Big Fin is right, Putin is very smart. The concern right now is he still rational or going insane? If he’s rational, this will get figured out at thousands of deaths. If he’s insane, it might be millions of deaths.

 

[Nick87]

Definitely make me think about what I would do in their shoes.

Definitely impossible to say unless it really were your shoes.

 

[JLS]

Definitely impossible to say unless it really were your shoes.

Very true.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I begin by saying I do not know what the right answer is, and my guess is my view will evolve as we learn more and the circumstances change.

I fully support harsh economic consequences for Russia (even though I doubt their ultimate effectiveness) and materials for Ukraine , but I am not yet convinced that American planes in the air or boots on the ground are the right action for our country at this point.

In the 250 years we have been a nation, Ukraine has been a region of Russia for all but about 30 of them. A significant portion of the country (but likely not a majority of them) would prefer the Russian-sphere over the west. They have been "Russian soil" for hundreds of years and are on the Russian doorstep. Importantly, they are not members of NATO. With this backdrop is this where we risk WW3?

If the theory is that now is the time to destroy Putin's ability to wage war in the future (per the Neville Chamberlain experience), we are talking about all-out combat with the 3rd largest modern military in the world - one that is nuclear armed. Anything less does little to de-fang the dictator even if we were to force a retreat out of Ukraine for the moment. A wounded Putin would likely lick his wounds and be back. Are we ready to go this deep at this time on this issue?

What if our distraction results in China taking Tawain, activity on the Korean peninsula, Iranian-backed movement against Isreal. What then? War in Tawain or Korea would cripple our economy as it stands today.

I am neither a dove nor an isolationist, but at some point, the US has to have the humility and the common sense to pick its battles. It is not possible to fight every battle on behalf of all 200+ countries on this planet for all times. There is always war somewhere and there are always atrocities. We never have (nor could we have) engaged them all.

Our soldiers/sailors/airmen have always met the call and we are in their deepest debt, but our politicians and press have done them few favors as we have tried to "police the world".

Even with their bravery and sacrifice, our history suggests we should not take such excursions lightly.

In WW1 we entered late and paid (relatively speaking) little of the real price. After the fact, all involved seem to agree that all-out war over a small skirmish in eastern Europe was hardly worth it. I would guess if we were fully involved from day 1 Americans would have a less glamorous view of our participation. (reading first-hand accounts of the war in Belgium and France is truly shocking)

In WW2 we truly rose to the occasion for the right reasons against the right enemies (and probably a little late). But our homefront paid a relatively small price largely due to our geographic isolation in the days before jets and missiles. Something that is no longer true

Korean was a mess.

Vietnam was a mess.

The first gulf war went pretty slick, but the opponent never actually thought it would come to war and was in no position to stand up to us.

Afghanistan was a mess.

Iraq part 2 was a mess


So at the moment, I don't see how we better America, broad democracy or our other interests by going to war absent a NATO violation - which Ukraine is not.

My prayers are with the leaders that have to sort this out - and the men and women who carry the fight. May God help us all find peace.

 

[Southern Elk]

I’ve read every post on this thread, but I haven’t commented. I don’t really have anything to add, as some here are much more knowledgeable on the subject.

My 11 year old is currently watching YouTube videos about making a “Fallout readiness kit”. He asked me if he could use some of his money to buy a gas mask. I told him that we can’t worry about things that are out of our control. I also told him it was highly unlikely that there would be a nuclear war. It’s a shame that I’m having to have these type of conversations. I’ve always hoped to give my kids as good or a better life than I’ve had, which has been pretty dang good. I’m afraid for some of the things that they may have to witness and endure.

I’m also very grateful that I’m an American and not in Ukraine explaining to him that we might be bombed tonight. My advice to him is that we cling to our Christian faith, not worrying about things that are beyond our control, while knowing that if the unimaginable happens, we have a place in heaven. I pray for the innocent that are suffering because of this monster.

 

[Nick87]

I might sound like a broken record, but sitting here with the kids tonight really puts things in perspective. Few years ago this would have just been another war on TV for me (probably not for those of you that have served) Once you have a family it sure puts things in perspective. Life should never have to be as hard as it is in Ukraine right now or any other place for that matter. What a shitty deal for those people, @Greenhorn was spot on, kill em. The quicker the better.

 

[Cerebral Stalker]

Why are the US and Europe still buying oil and gas from Russia? Relying on our supposed enemies for the fuel that all our military infrastructure runs on makes no sense whatsoever. Something's not right.

Why hasn’t Putin knocked out power, communications, and internet in Ukraine? This is the first logical step to take when invading in order to cripple enemy communications, logistics, and create confusion (something the US does well). And besides, Ukraine’s internet is owned by Russian companies. Putin could have it turned off at the flick of a switch. Something's not right.

 

[Cerebral Stalker]

Why are the US and Europe still buying oil and gas from Russia? Relying on our supposed enemies for the fuel that all our military infrastructure runs on makes no sense whatsoever. Something's not right.

Why hasn’t Putin knocked out power, communications, and internet in Ukraine? This is the first logical step to take when invading in order to cripple enemy communications, logistics, and create confusion (something the US does well). And besides, Ukraine’s internet is owned by Russian companies. Putin could have it turned off at the flick of a switch. Something's not right.

Oh yeah, and why is all the Russian news being censored?

 

[Pucky Freak]

Maybe none of these paths are very tenable, but here’s where my mind has been the last few days:

-EU paves an easier path for foreign fighters and weapons to stream through Poland. Not national armies, just individuals wanting to join the fight. This is happening already, just on a small scale. Shoot, Finland just announced supplying arms to Ukraine. Has Putin attacked Finland? No. He’s a windbag. Whether we’d like to acknowledge it or not, Ukraine is the proxy battleground between the West and Putin already. Let Europe take the lead on funneling arms and personnel to fend him off.

-Time for Exxon to divest itself from Russian oil business. They are late to the party, and teetering on the wrong side of history.

-Diplomatic solution? Russia keeps Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. The remainder of Ukraine gets fast-tracked into NATO and the EU. Putin has overplayed his hand. Most of the rest of the world has shown him they can play hardball too, and he backs off future engagements. Well, maybe…

-Zelensky dies a martyr. Ukrainians steel against Russian aggression and dig in for a prolonged war of attrition. Occupiers eventually leave when Putin dies or is forced from the seat of power. Maybe 10-15+ years from now. The long game. Europe eventually aligns with a new Ukraine. As much as I hate war, the Ukrainians seem very determined to stand up for their freedoms. Some things are worth dying and suffering for.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Why are the US and Europe still buying oil and gas from Russia? Relying on our supposed enemies for the fuel that all our military infrastructure runs on makes no sense whatsoever. Something's not right.

Why hasn’t Putin knocked out power, communications, and internet in Ukraine? This is the first logical step to take when invading in order to cripple enemy communications, logistics, and create confusion (something the US does well). And besides, Ukraine’s internet is owned by Russian companies. Putin could have it turned off at the flick of a switch. Something's not right.

Against my better judgement I feel compelled to ask what you are suggesting is the “big picture” we are missing?

 

[Cerebral Stalker]

Against my better judgement I feel compelled to ask what you are suggesting is the “big picture” we are missing?

I wish I knew.

 

[406dn]

-Time for Exxon to divest itself from Russian oil business. They are late to the party, and teetering on the wrong side of history.

As a retiree from *xx**, I cannot argue that point. They manage to get on the wrong side of a lot of issues.

 

[Big Fin]

Lots of good input to think about.

My predictions of a Russian-Western conflict being an eventuality are based on Russian history and world history from 1914-1945. And I suspect I am influenced by my Great Grandfather leaving Finland in 1913 as a 25 year-old to escape the Russification of Finland and conscription to service in the Russian Army, along with the family history passed down from that event.

It was only 26 years later that a shaken world stood by as Russia brutally attacked Finland, shortly after Germany destroyed Poland. The idea was that by not confronting Stalin in his quest for Finland and by granting Hitler a few smaller countries, WWII would be avoided. Well, it was two years later, Hitler still not fearing any response from the world, that the US officially entered WWII.

The Finns incurred 70,000+ casualties to the Russian's 350,00+ in the Winter War of 1939. Finland, fighting without any aid from the western countries, inflicted enough damage to cause Russia to ask for a truce, with Finland giving up most of the Karelian Peninsula. I never heard what happened to the family members who stayed in Finland.

Lessons to me and drilled in to most young men raised in families of strong Finn traditions:

• Never trust the Russian Government.
• Never be unarmed or unprepared.
• Never be fooled to think a bully will be impressed by weakness.
• Inflicting pain on strongmen gets their attention.
• Evil men are evil; they don't change. Deal with them accordingly.

I know that family history likely influences my perspective. From a pre-teen age I was taught the rules about disliking and distrusting everything Russian power represents. Only two generations, my Dad and his mother, separate me from a Great Grandfather who felt he had no choice but to flee a country he dearly loved because of the Russians.

Add in a lot of world history to that family history and that's why I feel as I do when I watch the determined Ukrainians facing the same clan of despotic tyrants, just a century later. It is interesting to watch a country that has tasted freedom for only three decades express that they would rather die than live under the rule of Putin and Russia who would likely kill many of them and ruin the lives of those who did survive.

The world has previously been lulled into the fallacy that Putin/Hitler-types can be subdued by offers of peace and negotiation. Every time it has been tried the result was the same; bad. And every time, the consequences of delay resulted in much greater cost in lives. I fear this is another time when we risk repeating these hard lessons of history.

Regardless of my personal thoughts, I am impressed by the resolve demonstrated by the outgunned and outmanned Ukrainians.

 

[stealthy_bowman]

Would be great to see a solution emerge from within Russia. Just one well placed shot and the world would have itself a super hero for the ages. Just saying...

 

[ignorethefringes]

Apologies if this has been mentioned before, but does anyone else think we may the technology to blow a nuke out of the sky before it does real damage? That doesn't seem out of reach given the technology of the day.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Apologies if this has been mentioned before, but does anyone else think we may the technology to blow a nuke out of the sky before it does real damage? That doesn't seem out of reach given the technology of the day.

Three problems. One is that nuclear brinksmanship theory says that other nuke powers are incented to strike before it is finished rather than risk facing a nuclear opponent while themselves being effectively disarmed. The second is that even a 99% success rate against 6,000 warheads still results in nuclear holocaust. The third is that it is nearly impossible to protect broad continent against submarine launched missiles that can pop up just about anywhere.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Don’t bother listening to any mainstream media, it's nothing but propaganda. Here's one video to watch:

But instead we should listen to Putin-salted conspiracy theories? Good grief.

 

[Allenkoz]

I know and respect how we try to keep HT neutered from political conversations. That said, I saw the below photo of a child’s stuffed animal that exactly mirrored a stuffed hedgehog my 3 year old son has. Choked up a bit. I’d prefer keeping the discussion clear of R/D entanglements. But damn, it feels like we are entering an end of the Post Cold War period. Curious how the HT crew feels how this is going to damage the economic situation we live in? Russia as a major exporter of gas/wheat/nickel/steel/rare earth metals?…general sense of how that will cause further inflation if they are cut off from SWIFT / export markets. I think we all hope things sizzle out but this seems far more serious than Chechnya/ Balkans.

Not interested in partisan fights but more reflections from those who have lived through these sorts of things and have insights .

Markets will adapt- many world events in the past impacted the market but they are merely blips on the chart as time wanes on. Buy low.