Ukraine / Russia

[Rhcuam]

Another 450 million will be heading to Ukraine bringing the running total to around 55 billion.
Next closest is the UK 2.5 billion, Poland 1.62 billion, Germany 1.49 billion, Canada 810 million. Seems a bit lopsided to me.

 

[MTGomer]

Putin is in a different situation where he has to reframe the bearing of consequences in a patriotic way to distract those that feel the pain. Different but the same.

Heavy emphasis on “same”

 

[Nameless Range]

I don't buy it. I see it more as Putin's version of MAGA. A broad, meaningless narrative to rally people around some patriotic belief to justify some BS decisions. The Russian people are suffering so he has to make them think they are doing it for the homeland. I guarantee that he and the oligarchs continue to siphon off funds from the businesses they run. They care about money.

I think money is a part of it, as it is a part of everything, but I do think he has a deeper motivation than economics, and I do think he believes in a Russian glory of sorts in a way that is wholly separate from MAGA. Call it legacy or whatever. MAGA was clearly a form of pandering for suckers, and I am sure there is a degree of that in this, but unlike Trump, Putin has actual skin in the game of his country, and has most of his life.

This podcast with Peter Zeihan was fascinating to me. Zeihan speaks with certitude he can't possibly have, but he is very convincing nonetheless. His case is that Russia is spiraling a demographic black hole and is in much more dire straits than many other countries. Through the lens of demographics, material resources, and demand for those resources, Zeihan predicts economic future likelihoods. In terms of expanding their sphere of influence via might, it really is now or never for Russia. They chose now. Zeihan believes Ukraine is only the first conquest.

255 | Peter Zeihan: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning

Peter Zeihan, geopolitical strategist and author of The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, joins The Realignm…

www.therealignment.fm

I'm not an expert, and certainly not gonna argue, but this take really does come across as compelling to me and feels different than just self-serving plutocrats starting wars for their own benefit.

 

[noharleyyet]

Drumbeat..

 

[rwc101]

Russia has had a collective inferiority complex towards the west for centuries. Culturally, militarily, economically, etc. Watching their influence in eastern Europe crumble has caused a crisis of identity. They can only throw their weight around with oil and bombs. One little invasion let them do both.

 

[Cornbread]

In the end all we have accomplished is we made Russia stronger, pushed them closer to China, made our own country weaker.

I'm not sure we made Russia stronger. They have been seriously weakened economically. Nevertheless, I agree with you that we foolishly pushed them into the arms of a huge threat to us (China), and we certainly are weakened with additional govt debt essentially held by our enemies (China).

 

[HONEYBADGER]

I'm not sure we made Russia stronger. They have been seriously weakened economically. Nevertheless, I agree with you that we foolishly pushed them into the arms of a huge threat to us (China), and we certainly are weakened with additional govt debt essentially held by our enemies (China).

Ruble just hit a 7 year high....China is buying all the oil Russian can produce.

 

[Rhcuam]

“Europe's biggest economy is now officially running short of natural gasand is escalating a crisis plan to preserve supplies as Russia turns off the taps.

Germany on Thursday activated the second phase of its three-stage gas emergency program, taking it one step closer to rationing supplies to industry — a step that would deliver a huge blow to the manufacturing heart of its economy.”

Germany declares gas crisis as Russia cuts supplies to Europe

Europe's biggest economy is now officially running short of natural gas and is escalating a crisis plan to preserve supplies as Russia turns off the taps.

amp.cnn.com

The sanctions are really crippling Russia. Lol. Germany must be having trouble running the country on unicorn farts and rays of happiness.

In other news Ukraine’s military will be withdrawing from Severodonetsk, all but securing the land bridge to crimea. Looks like they will be withdrawing to occupied territory, so surrendering.

If Russia continues their push across the river, the pieces are in place to encircle Lysychansk as well. Daddy biden better get his checkbook out, because Ukraine is going to need a few more billion.

 

[Rhcuam]

For those that said Russia would be cut off from western tech….lol…they went directly to the source.

We are ready to deliver parts to RF [Russian Federation – AeroTime], we are organizing this cooperation. Now they [companies – TASS] are working [on this – TASS], they have specific channels, there are no restrictions from the Chinese side,” Tass cited Hanhui as saying.

Chinese companies ‘ready’ to deliver aircraft parts to Russia

China will deliver aircraft parts to Russia, said Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui, according to Russian state media.

www.aerotime.aero

China to Supply Spare Parts for Russian Airlines

The Chinese Ambassador to Moscow has stated that China is ready to supply Russian airlines with parts.

airwaysmag.com

 

[Cornbread]

Ruble just hit a 7 year high....China is buying all the oil Russian can produce.

A higher ruble means imported goods (imported into Russia) are much more expensive. What imported goods that the Russians need for their economy are not available because of the embargoes and sanctions? What price is China paying for this oil? They may be getting it at bargain basement prices (and yes I know where the price of oil is, but costs to them have also risen hugely). This war has caused many UNKNOWN resource dislocations. And then, there is the cost of resources to run the war. How on earth can this be good for Russia?

 

[HONEYBADGER]

A higher ruble means imported goods (imported into Russia) are much more expensive. What imported goods that the Russians need for their economy are not available because of the embargoes and sanctions? What price is China paying for this oil? They may be getting it at bargain basement prices (and yes I know where the price of oil is, but costs to them have also risen hugely). This war has caused many UNKNOWN resource dislocations. And then, there is the cost of resources to run the war. How on earth can this be good for Russia?

They aren't missing anything. They can get anything they want from China.

 

[Cheesehead]

A higher ruble means imported goods (imported into Russia) are much more expensive.

This is exactly backwards. Stronger domestic currencies hurt exports and help with imports.

 

[Rhcuam]

If this is being said out loud you known damn well the situation over there is not going. Pouring money by the truckload is not going to help. Having 100+ troops killed in action every day and 2x that being injured is going to leave Ukraine combat ineffective very quickly.


“White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.

Advisers to President Joe Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian “victory” – adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.”

Biden officials privately doubt that Ukraine can win back all of its territory | CNN Politics

White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.

www.cnn.com

 

[EKYHunter]

If this is being said out loud you known damn well the situation over there is not going. Pouring money by the truckload is not going to help. Having 100+ troops killed in action every day and 2x that being injured is going to leave Ukraine combat ineffective very quickly.


“White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.

Advisers to President Joe Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian “victory” – adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.”

Biden officials privately doubt that Ukraine can win back all of its territory | CNN Politics

White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.

www.cnn.com

There was a retired General or Colonel on one of the news outlets saying this very thing 2 days after the invasion. I think many thought or new that this would be the likely outcome.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

There was a retired General or Colonel on one of the news outlets saying this very thing 2 days after the invasion. I think many thought or new that this would be the likely outcome.

​

Douglas Macgregor, actually it's just him all over the news, also the author of that article Rhcuam posted. You can google him retired Colonel, Trump admin guy... they tried to plug him into a bunch of different positions.

 

[rwc101]

Just imagine the cost of telling every Eastern European country that we're not bothered if Russia invades them.

 

[KB_]

How long before other countries start sending in troops. Not to say its not ugly now. But its gonna get really bad once that happens if it hasn't happened already.

 

[Rhcuam]

How long before other countries start sending in troops. Not to say its not ugly now. But its gonna get really bad once that happens if it hasn't happened already.

Wouldn’t that be an act of war and no longer just a proxy war.
Why on earth would another country send their troops over to defend Ukraine.
I just don’t see what the endgame is at this point. Continuing to feed Ukraine just enough weapons to keep them going, somewhat, all the while they’re taking losses that are totally unsustainable. At the current rate they’re probably getting killed faster than we can train them on the new artillery and weapons.

I was thinking Putin might be satisfied with his land bridge to Crimea now that it’s fully intact, but with the announcement about new NATO members I have a feeling he’s going to continue to grind Ukraine into dust. Get what he can while the gettins good.

 

[Rhcuam]

​

Douglas Macgregor, actually it's just him all over the news, also the author of that article Rhcuam posted. You can google him retired Colonel, Trump admin guy... they tried to plug him into a bunch of different positions.

The cnn article was written Natasha bertrand, I will assume she is not a retired Trump era general.

 

[Rhcuam]

Just imagine the cost of telling every Eastern European country that we're not bothered if Russia invades them.

Easy 0 dollars.