BrentD
Well-known member
Should be a big flush of new entries in the record books in 2-4 yrs time, eh?
This will affect my hunting
- Thread starter Big Fin
- Start date
There for a while I thought fall seasons we’re going to be in jeopardy but it seems as the day goes by more people are starting to see the amount of BS that’s coming from
the experts and leaders.
As the weather gets nicer people are going to ignore the stay at home more and more, not that anyone really is paying attention to them now.
the experts and leaders.
As the weather gets nicer people are going to ignore the stay at home more and more, not that anyone really is paying attention to them now.
azelkhntr
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2020
- Messages
- 456
Yep. The worse case scenario models aren’t panning out.
They say That’s because of many of the social distancing measures put into place.
Most time to saying the same article they people are not social distancing enough so it’s kind of bs! That and they are constantly move their goal post we went from 2.2 million down to 100,000 to 220,000. They’ve set themselves up nicely to hit their mark. When we don’t get those numbers they will say it worked even though the whole time they said we weren’t social distancing enough.
azelkhntr
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2020
- Messages
- 456
Until everyone is tested no one really knows. Its been reported the virus arrived here in Nov. If that's true then millions have been infected and are asymptomatic or they just dealt with a mild case and passed it off to a bad cold or mild flu.
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
If experts say "Whatever do what you want" and a ton of people get sick you are going to bash them for not doing anything... and if you implement a plan that dramatically reduces the cases i.e. people don't get sick you are going to criticize them for overreach and fear mongering. Seems unfair IMHO
No one is moving the goal post, there are tons of variables at play that change the models. Career experts are doing their best to ingest current data and then adjust outcomes based on what we know.
To the topic at hand, will hunts be effect. Yes this is already happening, per BigFin's original post. AK has cancelled it's NR hunts, other states are taking various measures with spring hunting. CO has closed Yuma county for turkeys.
Will fall hunts be effected, Yes. It's impossible to say which states and how much, but it will happen.
Here are CO's projections at various Social Distancing rates (SD), no one really knows which of these lines we are currently on.
What does this likely mean for your hunting in CO?
The white line on the last graph is probably a good indicator of hunting seasons getting closed in CO. Total cases, death rate, whatever doesn't matter.
If hospitals are at capacity Polis will shut down various activities, and restrict travel.
0% SD - Holy crap you ain't hunting
40-60% - Seasons will likely be cancelled, certainly travel restrictions, look at NYC right now, that will be CO in late April/May
Better than 70% - Seasons likely won't be effected on a state wide basis. Some rural and undeserved areas might post local closures.
East coast states are getting hit hard now, likely they will peak earlier and have less chance of fall orders.
Rocky states will likely peak in the summer... depends on how social distancing goes.
COVIDModelingReport_2000406.pdf
drive.google.com
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Not to totally jump ship any farther than we have, my prediction which I’ve been in right as much as the “experts” fall hunting season will go on as planned.
I would speculate that even achieving a 50% social distancing rate is extremely unlikely.
I would speculate that even achieving a 50% social distancing rate is extremely unlikely.
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D
Deleted member 16014
Guest
I think what many people are forgetting about fall is:
1) A lot of key decisions that will directly affect seasons have to be made well beforehand. Maybe health related conditions look much more favorable in October, but if things are still up in the air in July or August what are agencies supposed to do? They can only operate on what info they have, and if they are viewed as lax they stand the chance of getting overruled by state government, etc. Then they have the same problems except with zero plan.
2) Social distancing spreads impacts out (like into the future, i.e. fall), it doesn't make them go away.
1) A lot of key decisions that will directly affect seasons have to be made well beforehand. Maybe health related conditions look much more favorable in October, but if things are still up in the air in July or August what are agencies supposed to do? They can only operate on what info they have, and if they are viewed as lax they stand the chance of getting overruled by state government, etc. Then they have the same problems except with zero plan.
2) Social distancing spreads impacts out (like into the future, i.e. fall), it doesn't make them go away.
Irrelevant
Well-known member
Based on those graphs I think the worse case for hunting this fall appears to be anything >40% SD. No sure of >80% the number is low enough they allow season or because it's simply holding steady if the restrictions will then hold steady as well.If experts say "Whatever do what you want" and a ton of people get sick you are going to bash them for not doing anything... and if you implement a plan that dramatically reduces the cases i.e. people don't get sick you are going to criticize them for overreach and fear mongering. Seems unfair IMHO
No one is moving the goal post, there are tons of variables at play that change the models. Career experts are doing their best to ingest current data and then adjust outcomes based on what we know.
To the topic at hand, will hunts be effect. Yes this is already happening, per BigFin's original post. AK has cancelled it's NR hunts, other states are taking various measures with spring hunting. CO has closed Yuma county for turkeys.
Will fall hunts be effected, Yes. It's impossible to say which states and how much, but it will happen.
Here are CO's projections at various Social Distancing rates (SD), no one really knows which of these lines we are currently on.
View attachment 134990View attachment 134991
View attachment 134993
View attachment 134994
What does this likely mean for your hunting in CO?
The white line on the last graph is probably a good indicator of hunting seasons getting closed in CO. Total cases, death rate, whatever doesn't matter.
If hospitals are at capacity Polis will shut down various activities, and restrict travel.
0% SD - Holy crap you ain't hunting
40-60% - Seasons will likely be cancelled, certainly travel restrictions, look at NYC right now, that will be CO in late April/May
Better than 70% - Seasons likely won't be effected on a state wide basis. Some rural and undeserved areas might post local closures.
East coast states are getting hit hard now, likely they will peak earlier and have less chance of fall orders.
Rocky states will likely peak in the summer... depends on how social distancing goes.
COVIDModelingReport_2000406.pdf
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
At 70% essentially the curve stays flat, we don't see the exponential growth, come July-Aug if new cases are flat and medical resources aren't at capacity, I think western wildlife officials at that point would feel okay with keeping seasons open.
I was making my guesses based on exactly this thinking:
These models/ graphs also assume that SD hold steady at those numbers. The modeling group has not yet modeled what will happen if say shelter in-place orders are removed in May-July.
I think there will be fall hunting seasons as planned. If there isn’t, we have much bigger issues, like another Great Depression.
To clarify, because I know how that could be taken on here.... I’m NOT saying that hunter’s money is so
important that without it there will be a depression, I’m saying that the kind of restrictions that would lead to a cancellation of hunting seasons, would be the kind of restrictions that will crush the economy if they end up being in place March-November.
To clarify, because I know how that could be taken on here.... I’m NOT saying that hunter’s money is so
important that without it there will be a depression, I’m saying that the kind of restrictions that would lead to a cancellation of hunting seasons, would be the kind of restrictions that will crush the economy if they end up being in place March-November.
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
These are the counties I’ve seen... but it’s hard on a lot of them to find the actual order. I think you just have to be prepared to get kicked out of campsite in any county that you don’t reside in
Gunnison
Yuma
Huerfano
Las Animas
San Juan
Chaffee
The bolded to me is the flaw in social distancing. At some point kids will go back to school and spread the disease around. Likely in the fall. We will need to isolate the elderly and most vulnerable. This could have been done from the beginning.
Hopefully it doesn't affect fall hunting when schools reopen.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I know you will disagree with the following, but for the interest of others:
It is about flattening the curve so the health system is sufficiently ready to minimize deaths. Most would agree that there are materially different death totals between a spring '20 free for all and a spread out development of herd immunity over a timeframe better prepared health systems can handle.
Merely isolating the elderly isn't a great mid-first wave option since until you have some amount of herd immunity for many younger/healthier folks you have no good way to provide the vulnerable with food/health services etc. This also ignores the mixed generational households (Italy's great downfall), that the elderly doesn't just mean 80 year old retirees, but also 58 year smokers and 38 year old diabetics. With the breadth of high risk profiles, lack of solid understanding of R0, still open questions about incubation periods and infectivity length, and lack of availability of both test for active infections (the "RNA tests") and post infection antibody tests, targeted quarantines mid-first wave aren't a great solution.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
You cite merely your personal judgement. I make reference to considerations laid out by countless health professionals, but my points are "flimsy" - OK
As for on topic - you started the "debate" without any indication of an attempt at humor and not on topic. Given that, I figured it was fair to discount the "flimsy" assertions of your post.
I welcome a return to the original purpose of the thread, but won't feel bad about countering the bs of others who choose to chase tangential discussions.
Carry on.
