Caribou Gear Tarp

SE Montana winter kill

stealthy_bowman said:
I am also hearing that the kill was not as severe as anticipated. This came from a mfwp biologist I spoke to who expected worse, but was surprised and happy that the surveys are simply not indicating the disaster that was expected. Bottom line, indicators are pointing to marginally elevated winter kill, but certainly not the disaster some have predicted.
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Obviously there is still decent numbers of deer on the landscape because they are not ALL going to die. If you are strictly meat hunting with zero intentions or expectations on having an opportunity to hunt and kill a mature buck, you will have a fun hunt. Lots of does and 2 year old bucks running around on the landscape. If you thought it was a challenge to find a mature buck on public land over the past 5 years what do you think the worst winter in a decade did to your odds? Those who think that a lot of 3.5-4.5+ year old bucks survived that disaster are a special kind of naïve.

Of course the bios are going to say the numbers are not that bad. The MT system is designed for opportunity, not quality age class on public land. For $700, you are getting one hell of a meat hunt down there. If I'm driving from out of state and investing 1k+ into a deer hunt, it would be nice to legitimately have a glimmer of hope at potentially just seeing/hunting a 160+ buck. Do they exist right now on public land down there, sure??? As an NR coming from out of state without any previous boots on the ground scouting, will you need to hit the lotto to have that opportunity? Absolutely.

I hope this thread stays alive and I, along with others are proven wrong. Good luck to those who venture down there and please post how your hunts went.
 
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I guess it should be a given that nearly all of the folks who have been happily hunting SE MT public land for the last decade have not really looking for a deer hunt that included anything more than gravy terrain and a few young deer with beating hearts. So I guess for those of you - it should all be very good this year still.
 
BlakeA said:
Obviously there is still decent numbers of deer on the landscape because they are not ALL going to die. If you are strictly meat hunting with zero intentions or expectations on having an opportunity to hunt and kill a mature buck, you will have a fun hunt. Lots of does and 2 year old bucks running around on the landscape. If you thought it was a challenge to find a mature buck on public land over the past 5 years what do you think the worst winter in a decade did to your odds? Those who think that a lot of 3.5-4.5+ year old bucks survived that disaster are a special kind of naïve.

Of course the bios are going to say the numbers are not that bad. The MT system is designed for opportunity, not quality age class on public land. For $700, you are getting one hell of a meat hunt down there. If I'm driving from out of state and investing 1k+ into a deer hunt, it would be nice to legitimately have a glimmer of hope at potentially just seeing/hunting a 160+ buck. Do they exist right now on public land down there, sure??? As an NR coming from out of state without any previous boots on the ground scouting, will you need to hit the lotto to have that opportunity? Absolutely.

I hope this thread stays alive and I, along with others are proven wrong. Good luck to those who venture down there and please post how your hunts went.
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Good post I have to agree
 
As far as I understand, 3.5 to 4.5 year old bucks have higher than normal winter survival rates. It's the fawns that get hit, followed by the old. 3.5 or 4.5 isn't old. I think the reason there aren't a lot of mature deer in eastern Montana is because of high hunting pressure when bucks are most vulnerable.

I would expect the forkies to be the ones who took the biggest hit this year from winter as they were last years fawns.
 
I would think the bucks who have been through peak of the rut to take the hardest hit. Which is the 2.5-4.5 year Olds they are the ones who breed the most thus they have no energy or body build up to survive a winter like SE MT had .
 
I hope the biologists are right but I have my doubts. I found more dead whitetails on the river this spring looking for shed than any other year. I have seen EHD outbreaks that were worse but it wasn't pretty. Lots of dead fawns.
The snow kept me out of the hills for the most part this spring so I didn't find a lot of winter killed mule deer. It is unlikely that they fared much better than the whitetails.
I spent the entire evening on a remote ridge in the Tongue River Breaks and went deer less. I have been on that ridge dozens of times in the last 25 years and I don't think I have ever gone deer less. Did see a nice cinnamon phase bear. He was a little closer than I like and could care less that I was there.
 
I think this would be a good time for Fwp to not sell any R7 b mule tags . Whatever goes in the drawing so be it but then shut it off
 
joelweb said:
As far as I understand, 3.5 to 4.5 year old bucks have higher than normal winter survival rates. It's the fawns that get hit, followed by the old. 3.5 or 4.5 isn't old. I think the reason there aren't a lot of mature deer in eastern Montana is because of high hunting pressure when bucks are most vulnerable.

I would expect the forkies to be the ones who took the biggest hit this year from winter as they were last years fawns.
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If you've ever hunted public land down there, you know that a 3.5-4.5 yr old IS old. They are the dominant bucks doing all the rutting. It takes a miracle for a buck on public land to live longer than 4 years down there.
 
BlakeA said:
If you've ever hunted public land down there, you know that a 3.5-4.5 yr old IS old. They are the dominant bucks doing all the rutting. It takes a miracle for a buck on public land to live longer than 4 years down there.
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3.5-4.5 is old for the area, but it is not old for the species. I've asked many agency biologist about winter mortality and every one I've talked to across the western region says that in general mature bucks are not the animals that die during winter. They are done growing and have everything they need. Sure, a percentage will die every year, but bad winters kill the fawns (incoming forkies) and the old (6.5+). Those in their prime die primarily from mass hemorrhaging during hunting season.
 
joelweb said:
3.5-4.5 is old for the area, but it is not old for the species. I've asked many agency biologist about winter mortality and every one I've talked to across the western region says that in general mature bucks are not the animals that die during winter. They are done growing and have everything they need. Sure, a percentage will die every year, but bad winters kill the fawns (incoming forkies) and the old (6.5+). Those in their prime die primarily from mass hemorrhaging during hunting season.
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So are we talking about the average winter? If that's the case than obviously yeah, what you are saying is correct. The problem is that mother nature was FAR from average this winter in the SE. I would consider 300% above normal snowpack along with weeks at a time, not days, of below zero temps along with gusting winds day in and day out a completely different winter than the one you are using for your examples. It's comparing apples and oranges. Did you spend any time in the SE from January-April? I'm curious what you saw that made you feel it was an average and typical winter for the area.

Also, did the bios you spoke with mention anything about how awful the landscape was going into the winter? Drought would be an understatement. If an animal has terrible nutrition going into the worst winter in a decade (especially rutting bucks), I don't care how old they are, good luck making it through.
 
I'm talking about general mortality trends during bad winters. Also, the spring survey data I've seen from FWP shows less than expected mortality.
 
oldschool.06 said:
Anybody been out scouting ? Is as bad as we feared ?
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From what I've seen it's not good. There are animals on the landscape but significantly fewer then years past. Fawns are almost non existent and the bachelor groups of bucks I've seen are all the same. 2 year old 4 pts. Won't be too much longer and the orange army will take care of them. This is all public land. I cannot comment on how the private animals are doing.
 
I have seen some nice bucks on private. Still fewer deer than last year.
The trips I have made on public have been dismal. Still some deer but now where close to what there should be.
 
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