Something strange to me as well.What is this "retirement" you speak of...
Keep adding to my 401K and the balance keeps getting smaller!
Retirement goal changed due to inflation?
- Thread starter Cammy
- Start date
Keep adding to my 401K and the balance keeps getting smaller!
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
@VikingsGuy per David Ramsey kick those kids out at 16 and buy a shovel for nanna when she starts misplacing her keys too often
this was fun. i'm having the wall street journal send me their "investing challenge" thingymabob.
they ran through five examples of inheriting 10,000 dollars at age 35 and immediately putting them in a tax advantaged account and investing them in an S&P500 index fund until age 65.
here was one:
It’s June 1932. Banks are failing all over the country, unemployment is over 20%, and Adolf Hitler is on his way to becoming Chancellor of Germany. He will invade Poland in seven years, triggering World War II. How much money do you think you had in June 1962?
In that example they claim in 1962 you'd have $519,931.
some of that sounds like what's going today, except mightily worse.
they ran through five examples of inheriting 10,000 dollars at age 35 and immediately putting them in a tax advantaged account and investing them in an S&P500 index fund until age 65.
here was one:
It’s June 1932. Banks are failing all over the country, unemployment is over 20%, and Adolf Hitler is on his way to becoming Chancellor of Germany. He will invade Poland in seven years, triggering World War II. How much money do you think you had in June 1962?
In that example they claim in 1962 you'd have $519,931.
some of that sounds like what's going today, except mightily worse.
$8k to $10k per month is $100-$120K per year. I assume that I will not be spending any money other than that. So that is in the range of my retirement income. I would assume that is worst case scenario. If I am healthy, I probably live on $40K or less in todays dollars.
Nobody wants to tackle the "How and when do we retire" question, eh? Maybe need another libation?
Nobody wants to tackle the "How and when do we retire" question, eh? Maybe need another libation?
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
So basing it on market returns sans context?
I feel like I have beef with this because context is king.
I.E. 2045 -> President AOC decides that all withdrawals from Roth's will be taxed... oh and tax rate is 85% over 200k
Last edited by a moderator:
How do you feel about some of the long term care policies out there if you get in them at a decent age? (late 50’s-early 60’s)
I base that question more towards someone without a nest egg that would support a couple years of that kind of care
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
My parents have/had a really good one, it had a survivorship clause, so since my dad passed my mom as coverage for life and doesn't pay a premium.
Caveat it only covers long term care facilities not home care.
well, sure.
my takeaway is more the historical evidence of diversified market returns despite the current circumstances.
who would inherit 10,000 dollars during the great depression and be like "yes, I can think of no better place for this than the market"?
I suspect i might not be saying that. and then there's all the gloom and doom about where the american economy could be headed right now- stagnation, declining birth rates, social security implosion, etc, etc.
who was saying similar stuff, maybe different flavors or problems, but similar stuff in the 30's? the 80's? but time and time again, evidence says if you put that 10,000 in the market, your 30 year return is substantial.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Yup if my kids had to pay for their own college, weddings and home down payment, and I let my mom live under a bridge, I could retire now. But I prefer to use my talents to help my mom, my kids and some charities in the area we care about. And if I die before I can live some grand retirement, I will do so knowing I spent my gifts where I cared the most. To each their own.
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
Naaaaaa
I mean that's suggesting you indexed the market, which didn't exist until 75', but say you have a very diversified portfolio back them... how many of the companies you invest in during the great depress went bankrupt.
If you went back in time to 1927, got 10k in those dollars so adjusted for inflation, had your memory wiped and just invested. I bet you'd be broke by 1936. You'd have to be picking winners for a bit and then cashing out and picking winners again.
It's not like some millennial with a 401k dumping it all into VTI every month and not looking back.
and we don't know what happens with ^ everyone doing this? How does indexing at mass scale effect the market long term.
I'm just saying I find that kind of thinking super problematic, because it assume way too many variables remain constant.
Given those dates your best bet would be to buy a shit load of gold and bury it somewhere lol
This ! You might be surprised how much more you can do, for a lot less, by living in some countries. I always loved new adventures and learning/living a different culture, so when he suggested it I was all in.
We started with 10 countries and narrowed it down to four --Spain, Malta, Ecuador, and Costa Rica. Costa Rica was a close second, but we settled on Spain. We sailed, fished, took trips to the other European countries, hunted ( mostly in Spain and Austria ), art classes, ran with the bulls ( o.k. we watched others run ) and sometimes just set, listening to good music ( not Kiss ) and drank wine
What about family ? They loved visiting usGood suggestion BuzzH
well obviously they modeled the S&P500 backwards so that it automatically dropped and added companies based on their metrics throughout the modeled time.
the exercise is less about literally putting 10,000 in the S&P in 1932 and more about highlighting where the stock market was at two points in time 30 years apart. it seems most any way you slice it, it's a good idea to put money in the market. and now that we have VOO, we don't need to think so hard about it.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
When I was 18 I declared I was going to retire and 59 1/2 (from a vague understanding of 401ks). Then my job gave me incentives to stay to 60 plus 1 day - so, 60 it was. Then I had a unique professional opportunity that required me to commit to stay on the job to 61 1/2. And so it stands - Dec 31, 2027 I am tapping out. Cold turkey. No consulting. No side gigs. Just hunting, fishing, hiking, puttering, shooting and getting the grandkids (hopefully have some by then) hooked on the same - and vegas trips don't forget the vegas trips.
If somebody has a better plan than this I need details!
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I start off very suspicious with every insurance product other than term life and car/home insurance.
Some work out, many do not. I just help my M-I-L unwind a lousy one my F-I-L bought into. If you are good with finances, insurance principles, and legal documents you have a chance to get an ok deal - if not, in vegas they would call you the "fish".
Just realize that if you live the expected amount of time and receive the expected amount of care, you will overpay - just like any insurance. If you are young and healthy I would at least consider putting the premiums into your own vanguard account vs. giving it to someone else. But then again, if they are a legit company, you get a good policy and you need extended periods of covered care it could be a win.
i also think these questions and thoughts are part the point trying to be made in the experiment.
we look at today's environment and can rationally only see gloom for the future, how many unknowns and dynamic variables? endless. mass indexing? heck if i know, that's a great question how that actually effects things.
but still, being put in the shoes of some dude in 1930 and I'd say the same, only doom and gloom, don't dare put your money in the market. or 1940, 1969, 1991, 2001, 2008, and my takeaway, 2022.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I would typically agree - but those early gloom years weren't seeing population decline and a shift to aged population like we are today. Those will have profound effects. But maybe we will get a clue about the economic catastrophe of a declining population and open our doors to as many law abiding, hard working, (and some educated/skilled) immigrants as will move here. Being anti-imigrant is a self-imposed death sentence for modern societies with sub 2.1 birth rates. Immigration has driven American success before and can do it again.
My plan is to retire the day my job says I can at 52 1/2 and start collecting that pension. I’ll be able to use my wife for insurance for a number of years afterwards. I don’t plan to quit working, I just plan to not work a full 40 hrs a week 52 weeks a year. Not sure how I’ll use my own deferred comp accounts yet but I’ll figure it out I guess. I’ve put off enough hunting, fishing and camping due to work to not take advantage of it when my employer says I can
Similar threads
