recession?

[SilentBirdHunter]

Consumer confidence had it's biggest monthly decline since August 2021.

Markets sold off today as investors worried whether tariff uncertainty could steer the economy into recession. The S&P 500’s post-election rally has been more than erased, with the index declining 2.7% to start the week and closing just above the $5,600 mark for the first time since mid-September. Big Tech names that have led the stock market’s AI boom over the past two years were hit hard, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4% to have its worst day since September 2022. Layoff announcements shot up to a 4.5-year high and the S&P 500 index fell 6% from its all-time high set Feb. 19 as the potential implementation of tariffs rocked Wall Street.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter.

Goldman Sachs economists upped their odds of a 2025 recession from 15% to 20% on Friday, naming Trump’s economic policies as the “key risk,” while Yardeni Research raised their recession odds Wednesday from 20% to 35%, citing “Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs.”

Uncertainty does not help factory planning, the market, or the economy.

 

[SAJ-99]

I'm not sure why the title has a question mark. If the main driver continues to be how many times each week Trump can appear on TV to babble nonsense about tariffs, we are destined for a significant recession.

 

[elkduds]

Consumer confidence had it's biggest monthly decline since August 2021.

Markets sold off today as investors worried whether tariff uncertainty could steer the economy into recession. The S&P 500’s post-election rally has been more than erased, with the index declining 2.7% to start the week and closing just above the $5,600 mark for the first time since mid-September. Big Tech names that have led the stock market’s AI boom over the past two years were hit hard, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4% to have its worst day since September 2022. Layoff announcements shot up to a 4.5-year high and the S&P 500 index fell 6% from its all-time high set Feb. 19 as the potential implementation of tariffs rocked Wall Street.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts an annualized rate of -2.4% in 2025’s first quarter.

Goldman Sachs economists upped their odds of a 2025 recession from 15% to 20% on Friday, naming Trump’s economic policies as the “key risk,” while Yardeni Research raised their recession odds Wednesday from 20% to 35%, citing “Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs.”

Uncertainty does not help factory planning, the market, or the economy.

So FAFO is not a sound fiscal policy? This one will be a trumpcession, maybe even a trumppression.

 

[rmyoung1]

So what’s it gonna do to the Wyo special elk draw odds?

 

[LIK2HNT]

So what’s it gonna do to the Wyo special elk draw odds?

I think everyone should not apply in any state.

 

[LopeHunter]

Tariffs are inflationary since are a quasi-tax on Americans. The cost of groceries goes up. Default rates on car loans were already rising before tariffs hit. Canada and Mexico can leave tariffs on even after the President folds.

Business owners thinking about investing in their business capacity just pushed those plans to the back burner. Unemployment rates will rise even if tariffs go away.

Consumer confidence fell as did their credit availability.

Stock market is down. Eggs up again.

Yes, recession is very likely into next year plus inflation will take longer to unwind unless unemployment jumps up the next several months.

Will be ugly and is a self-inflicted wound by our President and the meek Congress.