Caribou Gear Tarp

Recession in July

@JLS true but for anybody in the construction or trades it was devastating at least in this area. So many people I know/knew lost everything and I mean everything, but that is the nature of that beast. At the time as a young guy I wish I'd have known how fast things would spring back I would have leveraged all I could but at the time the outlook was bleak at best.
 
JLS said:
Right? BFD. 2008-2009 Recession. We moved in the heart of it. Took a new job, new state. We were cautious with finances but still lived life. Not sure how we made it to today.
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I built a brand new house and moved in to it the Fall of 2007. And my occupation is in construction. And I am the sole provider. It was a BFD. But we made it. mtmuley
 
Nick87 said:
@JLS true but for anybody in the construction or trades it was devastating at least in this area. So many people I know/knew lost everything and I mean everything, but that is the nature of that beast. At the time as a young guy I wish I'd have known how fast things would spring back I would have leveraged all I could but at the time the outlook was bleak at best.
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I’m sure it was. It was a high risk time for us to move. High risk, but high reward that paid off. It could have gone south.

I’m just agreeing with you in that folks arguing about whether we are or aren’t in a recession is rather pointless. Manage your risk accordingly…

Edit: looks like I quoted the wrong post of yours, I meant it to be your first one about what else are you going to do?
 
JLS said:
I’m sure it was. It was a high risk time for us to move. High risk, but high reward that paid off. It could have gone south.

I’m just agreeing with you in that folks arguing about whether we are or aren’t in a recession is rather pointless. Manage your risk accordingly…
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Totally agree. Just pointing out how it effects different sectors.
 
Well where I live construction is as strong as ever. It sure doesn’t feel like a recession. Hardest part of a project is finding a willing contractor. Getting materials is a close second. I’m hoping crap slows down but I don’t see that happening.
 
Also this is the reason I preach to my kids nonstop to find a job that is as recession proof as possible. Literally everybody I know personally here is in some sort of trade. After seeing what 08 did to most of those folks. I cant preach enough how important job security is to my boys. It's the single most thing that keeps me awake at night in my job and I'm still in better shape for a recessionn than 90% of the guys I work with.
 
bayoublaster7527 said:
Nothing to see here, recession is just transitory……
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Recessions are always transitory.


Let's recap, to make @bayoublaster7527 points. The general technical definition is negative GDP for 2 consecutive quarters, but the NBER (who is in charge of it) calls it "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months". GDP did decline for 2 consecutive quarters in 2022....NBER (and despite its name, it isn't a governmental agency) didn't call it a recession. They we hear about an "earnings recession". Well, if next week earnings announcements come in as expected, we will probably have an earnings recession as defined by 2 qtrs of negative earnings growth in the S&P 500. But it sure doesn't feel like a recession, I guess unless you lose your job. Right? I shared the view that the Fed cares only about the job market at this point. Looking at anything else is a waste of time. But from what I see, the market should not trade where it is on a fundamental basis. It is hard to look past all the bad news, but it has and has no trouble paying 18x earnings on the hope the future is bright. In 30+ years, this is the hardest market I have ever seen to trade. If you want to "blame" the Biden administration or the Fed or the Government or whatever, there is always plenty of data for that but its all BS. Honestly, we aren't in a recession, but you will know when we are and it won't feel good for anyone.
 
Nick87 said:
Also this is the reason I preach to my kids nonstop to find a job that is as recession proof as possible. Literally everybody I know personally here is in some sort of trade. After seeing what 08 did to most of those folks. I cant preach enough how important job security is to my boys. It's the single most thing that keeps me awake at night in my job and I'm still in better shape for a recessionn than 90% of the guys I work with.
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I'd say just as important right now is that your job can't be replaced by AI.
 
New WSJ article says commercial real estate hit a vacancy rate of 12.9% qtr1, higher than at the peak of the ‘08 crisis. Cities then see reduced tax revenue, and banks will have ongoing losses on commercial mortgages
 
156256Wenaha said:
New WSJ article says commercial real estate hit a vacancy rate of 12.9% qtr1, higher than at the peak of the ‘08 crisis. Cities then see reduced tax revenue, and banks will have ongoing losses on commercial mortgages
Click to expand...
Office space CRE is a weak spots for banks with defaults starting to occur.
 
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