Preference Points vs Bonus Points

[VikingsGuy]

IMHO the agencies or group that is proposing a system should state the goal of the system, then math out how the system will work, and then evaluate if it achieves the goal.

That seems pretty basic. It clearly was never done. Takes about 2 seconds with a spreadsheet to see that preference points will blow up in high pressure units.

I think they did The problem is that like much Gov't activity I think the following sums it up.

Goal One - collect money
Goal Two - satisfy incumbent protected interests
Declare total success and ignore legitimate concerns in order to avoid upsetting Goal Two, as the clearly failed idea spirals out of control.

 

[VikingsGuy]

If you design a shitty system people are going to flip the table over eventually,

An unexpected #jesus reference

 

[FI460]

Meh...

The people that complain the most are those that get 'stuck' too far into the system to feel like they can bail but too far from the finish line to ever conceivably draw.

Say there are 10 tags a year given out, and you are 35.

20pts - 70 people
19pts - 100 people
18pts - 150 people
17pts - 200 people
16pts - (you're at this level)

So there are 52 years of people ahead of you before your point level has a chance. So you're are 68 points before you draw. Obviously people will die off/drop out etc, but I think realistically in that system your looking at 30 years at best case attrition. So you might draw by 65 at 46 points, maybe. If there are point holders above you that are younger or in better health your probably hosed.

This is exactly the point creep scenario that we are seeing, I guarantee that in my lifetime if CO doesn't make changes I will see people drawing tags with 40 -50 points. You can look at the draw stats, there are units that have gone up ~1pt every year since the systems were created.

You can easily model it. These systems should never have been used for those kinds of units.

That's their fault for chasing dream units. I've played points for deer since 2002 and this is the first time I've gotten up to 5. Hunt a tag haha.

But I totally agree with you. I just FEEEEEL in my heart better about applying in a bonus point system.

 

[RobertD]

I'm ok with long odds, but I think the odds of some pref systems are almost zero. If you design a shitty system people are going to flip the table over eventually, and a bunch of people are going to get screwed... ie people in the WY system with max points.

I have no dog in the WY fight, I just hope you residents advocate for a sustainable system so you don't get screwed (screwed again) down the road.

Brother I only wish I was a WY resident, haha

Point taken on flipping tables though, I'm sure there's more to come

 

[Deleted member 28227]

An unexpected #jesus reference

Daniel 5 ?

 

[ccc23454]

My comment to the WY committee was basically immediately stop all random draws/point increases thru 2025 season. Award ALL tags to highest point applicants(@ current levels) thru that time period. The 2026 application forward should be a 100% random for everyone which would also reduce administrative burden on G&F (another task of committee as i understand it). To me this is the ONLY system that can survive long term, some people will get screwed but its got to happen sooner or later.

My perfect western state draw design is simple easy to administer and fair: 90/10, pay up front tag fee, nonrefundable if you draw, small app fee, no hunting license, 100%random.

 

[RobertD]

That's their fault for chasing dream units. I've played points for deer since 2002 and this is the first time I've gotten up to 5. Hunt a tag haha.

But I totally agree with you. I just FEEEEEL in my heart better about applying in a bonus point system.

It's not just a feeling, they're objectively better. If you don't have max or near max points in a straight preference system, it's physically impossible to draw. Bonus point system, your chances are always greater than zero.

Greater than zero might mean .001 but hey it's still better than nothing

 

[VikingsGuy]

Greater than zero might mean .001 but hey it's still better than nothing

 

[Deleted member 16014]

…Greater than zero might mean .001 but hey it's still better than nothing

Yes although in the case of WY, if the random pool goes away as a result of going to weighted bonus, your odds as a low point holder may actually go down. Unless I’m missing something, which is definitely possible.

 

[Carl 9.3x62]

Yes although in the case of WY, if the random pool goes away as a result of going to weighted bonus, your odds as a low point holder may actually go down. Unless I’m missing something, which is definitely possible.

I was thinking the same thing

 

[Pucky Freak]

Whether it’s bonus or PP it’s still a moving target. Basically Calvin ball, with the persons putting money up are at the mercy of the state legislatures. We’ve already passed the tipping point where socking away cash and buying a hunt is cheaper, easier, and more predictable than many PP and bonus draw tags.

Some reasons people still chase points:
1. They’re in deep
2. Layaway feels more affordable
3. They haven’t done the math

CO elk is the canary in the mine. When we all start to see how unattainable glory units are, more hunters shift will away from games with infinitesimally small odds.

 

[RobertD]

Yes although in the case of WY, if the random pool goes away as a result of going to weighted bonus, your odds as a low point holder may actually go down. Unless I’m missing something, which is definitely possible.

That's a good point, it would probably hurt people in a certain point range for a few years

I should have mentioned that preference point systems *with a random pool* are a lot better deal than straight preference

 

[homers]

Point creep because more points coming in than going out. Maybe if (WY) you use your points if you draw a tag, including 1st, 2nd and maybe 3rd choices would start reducing the number of points being carried over.

 

[thusby]

Convert all preference points to bonus points.
One antlered tag per year, doesn’t matter what species you choose but you only get to hunt one rack per year.
I’ll duck behind something now.

 

[RobertD]

One antlered tag per year, doesn’t matter what species you choose but you only get to hunt one rack per year

Per state? And can you apply for multiple but only receive one, or only apply for one? I don't hate your idea. I would exclude MSG though, so you could have one of those and still hunt an elk or whatever in that state.

 

[thusby]

One antlered animal per year/per state. Agree on the MSG. That’s like flipping a coin and having it land on end anyway.

 

[ImBillT]

1.Random
2.Bonus
3.Hybrid
4.Squared or cubed bonus
5.Preference

A) I could never be in a max point pool even if I wanted to be because I’m too far behind, and B) since I’d rather go hunting than build points, even if I was in the max point pool today, preference points would just mean that once I go hunting, I’m done for X number of years now unless I’m will to accept a lower quality hunt. In most states with hybrid systems, bonus systems and purely random systems, there is some ability to draw a top tier hunt, while also still applying for a mid tier hunt or a purely opportunity hunt. If I draw one of the easier to draw hunts in AZ and loose all my points does that mean that my name is in the hat fewer times for a top level hunt? Yes! But, because I will never be in the max point pool do draw in the first half, and because there is still a chance at a top tier hunt with zero or very few points, drawing that opportunity hunt doesn’t mean that I’ll never draw that top tier hunt(even though most of us never will anyway). In NM you can shoot for the moon on two choice and shoot for the middle as your third choice, and drawing your third choice doesn’t punish you at all(by liquidating your points). On the other hand, in CO if you have a pile of points and think you can draw your dream tag in 2, 3, or 6 years, and you hear something great about a unit that requires 4-5 points fewer than you have, which do you do? Assume that your dream tag will still be a dream tag in 6yrs, and that you’ll still be alive and healthy? Or, do you spend your points on a tag you know you can draw, that might be great, knowing that now you WILL NEVER HAVE THE POINTS TO DRAW YOUR DREAM. Consider random. 5% draw odds means that most people will draw roughly one time per 20yrs. Could be today, could be never. In a preference system, you MUST WAIT TWENTY YEARS. Will that hunt be good in twenty years? Will hunt codes that are good today become crap and put hunters with the same number of points as you, who are currently applying elsewhere, all on your hunt code, making it require twenty to thirty points, or worse? At 10% draw odds, in a random system, that’s roughly 1/10yrs in a random draw. There’s a 35% chance that in ten years you won’t draw at all, BUT there’s a 1% chance you will draw two years in a row! And, if you draw in your first year(you have a 10% chance) there’s a 61% chance that you’ll draw a second time in that ten year window(10% per year over the nine remaining years). As a guy who isn’t getting any younger, a hunt that requires ten preference interests me A LOT LESS than a hunt with 10% draw odds in a random system. Ten years from now, if I’m alive and healthy, I’ll definitely be ten years older, and then I’ll have to wait another ten years(assuming applications don’t change). In a random system, it’s true, I might never draw, but I have a 10% of drawing this year, a 65% chance of drawing at least once, a 1% chance of drawing back to back, after I draw, I don’t have to wait until I’ll almost certainly be unable to hunt to try to draw again. Furthermore, most point schemes artificially inflate apparent demand. People who have ABSOLUTELY ZERO intent to hunt this year can get in line with people who want to hunt this year and get in line in front of people who want to hunt next year. If you don’t want hunt this year, you shouldn’t be able to get a point of any kind. Getting a point should put you at risk of drawing a tag, and if you draw, you should loose your points outside of extenuating circumstances(medical reasons, death in the family, etc.)

 

[ImBillT]

Why preference pts don’t work:

CO unit 201. Last year there were 9 NRs with 30pts that applied for 4 tags. That means this year there will probably 5+ applicants with 31pts that apply for 4 tags. No big deal, you’ll catch up some day right? Well, there were actually 704 total applicants for those 4 tags. That means 176yrs to cycle through current applicants. Said another way, unless things change, it will become a 176pt unit. Will things change? Well yes, no one will live 176yrs, and as a result people will burn points on other units and/or die. I wish I could see how many NRs applied for those four tags(assuming tag numbers and favored units haven’t changed) the very first year CO went to a preference point system. I suspect that even then it could have been clearly understood that the most popular unit in the state would have been out of reach for some first year applicants and ALL of those who joined the second year of the system without some folks abandoning their first choice in favor of going hunting.

 

[s10]

Bonus points win IMO. Unless you were at the starting gate, preference points can make it tough to ever hunt inside a great unit.

 

[Zim]

I’m virtually guaranteed great hunts the next five years (CO, WY, UT, AZ & CO again) if the systems don’t change. Plus 35 longshots/year. So I’m good with the way things are. Chance of that happening is slim to none, based on past performance.

Wish I had a crystal ball to know which state was going to screw point holders next. Would be nice if they published those with the draw stats.