Post-pandemic US GDP rate compared to G20 countries

[AlaskaHunter]

The US economy expanded an annualized 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023, the most since the last quarter of 2022
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
Consumer spending rose 4%, the most since Q4 2021
Exports soared 6.2%
Private inventories added 1.32 pp to growth, the first gain in three quarters.
Also, residential investment rose for the first time in nearly two years (3.9% vs -2.2%)
In August 2023, inflation was 3.7 percent, while wages grew by 5.3 percent.

How does the annualized GDP rate of the US compare to other countries?
Better than G20 countries in the post-pandemic era.

Canada's GDP has been below 2% since the first quarter of 2021, near zero in 3rd quarter 2023
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/gdp-growth

China's GDP growth rate has been less than 2% in 2023.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth

Japan's GDP rate has been less than 2% since the first quarter of 2021.
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth

India's GDP rate has been 2% or less since the 4th quarter of 2021
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth

The Euro Area GDP has been below 1% for the past 7 quarters and at 0.1% the last quarter.
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth
Germany, the Euro Area largest economy stalled, and contracted to negative GDP rates since the 4th quarter of 2022.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth
The UK GDP rate has been less than 0.5% since the 1st quarter of 2022.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth
France GDP rate has been less than 1% since the last quarter of 2021
https://tradingeconomics.com/france/gdp-growth

Russia has been in negative GDP growth since the war.

 

[stk]

I think you meant to say that (insert political party you don’t like) is ruining this country and kids these days have no work ethic. Something something good old days something something.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

Compared to all G20 countries, the US economy has recovered much better after the pandemic,
especially in terms of GDP growth rate.

Inflation is also worse in most developed countries of the world including all G20 countries.
Over the past year, inflation in the United States has tumbled from 9% to ~3%.

And the US unemployment rate is only 3.8 percent compared to 5.0% in China, 5.5% in Canada, 5.9% in the European Union.

 

[SAJ-99]

Compared to all G20 countries, the US economy has recovered much better after the pandemic,
especially in terms of GDP growth rate.

Inflation is also worse in most developed countries of the world including all G20 countries.
Over the past year, inflation in the United States has tumbled from 9% to ~3%.

And the US unemployment rate is only 3.8 percent compared to 5.0% in China, 5.5% in Canada, 5.9% in the European Union.

Bigger question for me is why Americans have such a negative view of the economy? On the other thread is seems some are mad the economy is doing well and are sure the market will crash. I know humans have a negativity bias but it is getting ridiculous. Social media feeding it?

 

[TN2shot07]

Bigger question for me is why Americans have such a negative view of the economy? On the other thread is seems some are mad the economy is doing well and are sure the market will crash. I know humans have a negativity bias but it is getting ridiculous. Social media feeding it?

 

[noharleyyet]

Grocery prices, insurance rates, utility rates...ad nauseum

 

[SAJ-99]

Grocery prices, insurance rates, utility rates...ad nauseum
View attachment 299511

Yes, inflation is a legitimate item that makes people "feel" financially less well-off. Fed released its survey of Family Finances and it is hard to find something to be concerned about. Link attached, although I doubt 99.9% of the people care enough to look at it. It appears that Americans are better off (on average, of course), but feel worse about it. I do wonder if measurement methods are leading to problems in understanding the data, but I have worried about this for a long time.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf

 

[noharleyyet]

Yes, inflation is a legitimate item that makes people "feel" financially less well-off.

Math, due notices, and cash registers don't have feelings

 

[SAJ-99]

Yes, inflation is a legitimate item that makes people "feel" financially less well-off.

Math, due notices, and cash registers don't have feelings

Your income rising faster than inflation is also math.

 

[David658]

Your income rising faster than inflation is also math.

MY income is certainly not rising faster than inflation!

David
NM

 

[recon6036]

MY income is certainly not rising faster than inflation!

David
NM

Not even close

 

[SAJ-99]

MY income is certainly not rising faster than inflation!

David
NM

I understand, but not the point. Any individual may be better or worse. The survey shows mean and median. In income, we see the biggest jump over the time frame in the high-earners. In net worth, we see the biggest jump in low earners. I suspect that is because of Covid checks. But given we just posted a 4.9% real GDP number, it seems the average consumer is pretty depressed about the economy. This is odd. I think the pandemic continues to mess with a lot of measurements, but there is something else going on. People of all income brackets are generally depressed about the economy, but simultaneously (and paradoxically) spending pretty freely.

 

[longbow51]

Americans know what they're paying in the grocery store, at the pump, in utility bills, rent, and in mortgage payments (if they dare with current rates).

And you ain't foolin' em with no graph

 

[SAJ-99]

Americans know what they're paying in the grocery store, at the pump, in utility bills, rent, and in mortgage payments (if they dare with current rates).

And you ain't foolin' em with no graph

Yeah, you can't fool Americans with that fancy data. They are going to bitch about those prices and then go buy their tickets to Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Springsteen, or Metallica, or complain on that cruise they have been putting off since covid. I guess the thought is in 50yrs they can tell their grandkids they got to see Taylor Swift right before they got fired from their jobs and lost that sweet 1br condo in foreclosure and ended up living in the RV.

 

[noharleyyet]

Yeah, you can't fool Americans with that fancy data. They are going to bitch about those prices and then go buy their tickets to Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Springsteen, or Metallica, or complain on that cruise they have been putting off since covid. I guess the thought is in 50yrs they can tell their grandkids they got to see Taylor Swift right before they got fired from their jobs and lost that sweet 1br condo in foreclosure and ended up living in the RV.

Wait, what?

 

[SAJ-99]

Wait, what?

Exactly

Lots of discretionary purchases for all this “concern”. And gasoline prices? Give me a break. Top three selling vehicles are, again, Ram, Silverado and F-series. Data not matching the complaining. Faux misery.

 

[more_cowbell]

Yeah, you can't fool Americans with that fancy data. They are going to bitch about those prices and then go buy their tickets to Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Springsteen, or Metallica, or complain on that cruise they have been putting off since covid. I guess the thought is in 50yrs they can tell their grandkids they got to see Taylor Swift right before they got fired from their jobs and lost that sweet 1br condo in foreclosure and ended up living in the RV.

The UAW didn't think their members are better off, which I guess is why they went on strike against the Big 3. Plus here in Oregon several different school district teachers are striking or on the verge. One district contemplating a strike requested a 20+% increase in wages (or perhaps total comp.) over a three year period.

A month or two ago there was a WSJ article reporting that Costco customers were starting to spend less on pricey beef, and re-directing that money towards cheaper meats like chicken and pork. Though just one example of consumer spending, it seems like a material example, given that Costco customers are considered "better off" (financially) than the "average" American. If someone with an average $80K annual salary is passing over the boneless ribeye at $14.99 per pound, to buy chicken at $5.99 per pound, who knows whether it's because they're depressed about the economic outlook, or it's instead to support their teenage kids' addiction to dressing like Taylor Swift, going to her concerts, and buying 10 new products a month they saw on TikTok.

We're an economy of consumers (in a ancient Roman Emperor Caligua-istic-sort of way), which I personally find sad but hey we can't all make "widgets" at the local factory. I also think though there's certainly a slowdown coming, esp. for smaller businesses selling products or services that aren't "necessary".

 

[Djfan]

No one at my home is enjoying concerts, cruises, or much else. Mrs. Fan and I are getting by two paychecks to two paychecks.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

Your income rising faster than inflation is also math.

Also post-pandemic unemployment rates have been low....3.8% is low by historic perspective.

Is there any country in the world that has recovered stronger from the pandemic compared to the US?

 

[Irishman]

The economy always has cycles, no matter which political party is in office. The current cycle has been an incredibly long up cycle, basically from back during Obama, continuing trough Trump, and now through Biden. History says it will down cycle at some point, as it always does. Personally, I feel it all follows home construction cycles. Eventually everyone who can afford a house, and lots who can't, buy one. When housing slows, everything else follows. Home demand is starting to decline, prices will follow,