Population Growth and Hunting in Rocky Mountain States

[MTGomer]

This is why it isn’t going to stop.

I wonder what the Gallatin County population will reach before FWP considers changes to season structure.

341 Jersey St, San Francisco, CA 94114 | Zillow

341 Jersey St, San Francisco CA, is a Multiple Occupancy home that contains 3312 sq ft and was built in 1888.It contains 6 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms.This home last sold for $1,725,000 in January 2020. The Rent Zestimate for this Multiple Occupancy is $7,174/mo, which has increased by $179/mo in...

www.zillow.com

152 Thatch Wood Ln, Bozeman, MT 59718 | Zillow

152 Thatch Wood Ln, Bozeman MT, is a Single Family home that contains 3224 sq ft and was built in 2008.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $650,100, which has decreased by $5,968 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

 

[Deleted member 28227]

This is why it isn’t going to stop.

I wonder what the Gallatin County population will reach before FWP considers changes to season structure.

341 Jersey St, San Francisco, CA 94114 | Zillow

341 Jersey St, San Francisco CA, is a Multiple Occupancy home that contains 3312 sq ft and was built in 1888.It contains 6 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms.This home last sold for $1,725,000 in January 2020. The Rent Zestimate for this Multiple Occupancy is $7,174/mo, which has increased by $179/mo in...

www.zillow.com

152 Thatch Wood Ln, Bozeman, MT 59718 | Zillow

152 Thatch Wood Ln, Bozeman MT, is a Single Family home that contains 3224 sq ft and was built in 2008.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $650,100, which has decreased by $5,968 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

Yep. CO, ID, MT, WY... it's happening in every state. Honestly per the thread I started on CO, I don't think state agencies can look at hunting in a their state in a vaccum and need to be aware of and consider how R v. NR allocation and regulations changes in other states will effect their hunting opportunities and herds. I'm not throwing shade and saying there aren't managers who are looking at these changes, more that it's becoming increasingly important.


Here is the Gross license information from all states that have NR elk hunting opportunity

 

[ChrisS]

A few thoughts that kind of intertwine (some of which were already expressed in the thread). This is a huge area for research there's just so much that goes into how population shifts some of which canb e relatively rapid, but a lot is slooooow. There are still reverberations from the civil war occuring.
1) Population is shifting based on generational changes in response to changes in technology. Driving is easier, roads more prevalent, there is the information superhighway, etc, which opens up new areas to development. The east has been under development for centuries and the west is still just blip. When the product is data, there's no need to locate businesses next (or close enough to be profitable) to the resource. Also, too, transportation is dirt cheap compared to a century ago. Steel is made in China through recycled cars or raw iron shipped across the Pacific and then back again.

2) Economic wealth is increasing. It's cheaper to live how/where we want to these days or recreate where we want to.

3) Some things that people love about the mountain west, such as lax zoning or environmental regulations, are also responsible for the suburban sprawl that threatens wildlife populations. Eastern towns/cities were largely built based on how far a person could walk. Western (or any new area) development is based on the car/truck. Those lax zoning regs are also what makes the area attractive to businesses to eek a few extra percent out (who are also wooed by the local/state governments).

 

[idahohuntr]

Question becomes, how is this population boom going to change what has historically been very generous resident hunting opportunity and the ability for wildlife to continue at current levels and hopefully higher levels?

Politically - its always extremely easy to put the screws to non-residents. Raise their prices, cut their tags, reduce their opportunity...and given it's the residents wildlife and they pay the taxes...those are decisions they get to make.

However, the hordes of hunters in many of these western states are no longer just a caravan of non-residents. The exponentially increasing populations in the West means residents are going to have to stand up and recognize the need in many situations to limit their harvest in meaningful ways. Particularly in states where non-resident tags are already capped. It's going to have to be a chorus of resident hunters to make these changes though...do not expect any politician to stand up and offer the cutting of resident tags in any rural western state!

Another change I think we should be wary of...if/as resident and non-resident hunting opportunity is reduced and demand is still high...the pressures on States to offer more auction/raffle/landowner tags to bypass all the regular joes will increase substantially.

One silver lining - it should be obvious to elected officials the public desire for public lands and waters for outdoor recreation...people flocking to Montana, Colorado, Idaho etc. are going there because we have these amazing public lands right outside our communities.

 

[beginnerhunter]

The most accurate 300wm with an 18x scope at 600 yards would be pretty much useless in my hands. For others it's a dead elk. So yeah I'm all for more equipment regulations! "Oh but there will be more wounded." Sure, there will always be some folks lobbing Hail Mary shots at 400 yards with open sights. But there aren't too many complaints about 100 yard shots with archery equipment even though we all know some idiots do it.

I realize this wasn't the primary focus of the thread but you guys with the forced sterilization/abortion fantasies...AYFKM?? Nonstarter, thank God. Population studies have shown growth flattens with wealth and education. Let's hope and pray that happens in the third world and we can continue to have economic growth with less resource exploitation and smaller populations.

 

[beginnerhunter]

Exactly, my statement is predicated on the idea that we humans won’t make lifestyle changes. Ask any cardiologist in the world, the hardest thing you can ask a person to do is change their habits.

The Rocky Mountains are especially effected by this because we are developing in the worst way possible, suburban sprawl, everyone wants a “slice of heaven” with a giant ass house, garage, massive trucks and toys. I can’t blame anyone for wanting to live like this but our issues would be greatly mitigated if everyone was more wiling to live in smaller apartments and use public transit for their daily commute.

You raise a great point about the “boomer cliff”, changes are definitely coming in the next 15 years. Residents of every western state are going to have to decide what’s important to them as far as quality, cost, and season length.

Funny, I saw an article about people renting bunks in San Francisco for $1200 and thought that sounded ridiculous. Then I realized those people are basically subsidizing a rural life for people like me by choosing to cram themselves into a tiny space on the coast with several other people.

But as the urban population outpaces the rural, dominant cultural values will change and they will be able to wield political control over us (picture the extreme example of the Capitol vs the Districts in the Hunger Games). It's a weird paradox. I just hope they will be willing to leave us alone and free to live an alternative lifestyle.

 

[noharleyyet]

Sounds like you guys may have to wean off the NR 'thumb on the scale' to appropriate y'all'selves more critter opportunity to me.

 

[rmauch20]

Boomer cliff. I like that term. I guess one positive will be tags should be easier to get, in theory anyway.

 

[beginnerhunter]

Everything you're experiencing (out West) we've already been through here in the South East (Virginia, Tennessee, and the Carolina's). Massive influx of Northerners with their money and attitudes buying up all the farmland and posting it. But, someone here sold it to them. Also, I have discovered that in the rural communities you're considered an "outsider" if you weren't born and raised in the same zip code. As Solomon said, "There's nothing new under the Sun."

I do feel your pain, though.

As far as hunter recruitment goes...none needed here. Last year on opening day of rifle season I went to 4 or 5 spots I had scouted in the NF only to find several trucks already at each one.
-dp, Virginia native

Move to Arkansas. I hunt the NF 40 min from the largest MSA in the state and I haven't seen another hunter while hunting there for 4 years. I mean, trucks and campsites but nobody in the woods.

Just kidding, I made that up. Or did I? I've said too much...

 

[noharleyyet]

Boomer cliff. I like that term. I guess one positive will be tags should be easier to get, in theory anyway.

There are many boomers signing both sides of paychecks and paying beaucoup taxes. Best they stay on the steady side of the 'cliff'.

 

[antlerradar]

Two things stick out to me on Willm1313's chart. Montana is dead last in the cost ratio and behind the times when it comes to reporting.

 

[rmauch20]

There are many boomers signing both sides of paychecks and paying beaucoup taxes. Best they stay on the steady side of the 'cliff'.

I not wishing bad on anyone. I hope they keep buying licenses and get out there as much as they can. With a little bit of luck hopefully I’ll find my self in their shoes one day. But the baby boomer bubble (say that three times fast) is going to eventually bust.
Even here in Kansas where the hunting is far less physically demanding guys reach a certain age and then either go out far less or just not at all.

 

[Rancho Loco]

FWIW, that home on thatch wood is overpriced and has some problems.. as for people moving here, a vast majority of out of state clients have been from Colorado, Texas, Wisconsin and Washington State.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

There are many boomers signing both sides of paychecks and paying beaucoup taxes. Best they stay on the steady side of the 'cliff'.

Fair point. There is a massive amount of wealth tied up in the boomer generation, it will be interesting when they start transferring it to their children. The boomers seem to be a generation of accumulation, to a much greater extent than millennial's. Many of my parents friends have more than three cars, 2 homes often very large ones, and just lots and lots of stuff. In general because millennial's came of age in the recession and have been moving to the city, have been living in smaller spaces, without cars, and with fewer possessions (my wife and I could easily fit everything we own in a small trailer you could pull behind a Subaru). Most of the millennial's in my family don't have cars... which is super weird considering they live in the Rockies. I bet if you looked at driver's license rates of boomers v millennial's you would see some startling stats. On the flip sides millennial's travel a lot more than boomers, probably more than half the boomers I know don't have passports and/or haven't left the country, whereas I know 10-20 millennial's that have been to Iceland in the last 18 months.

Anyway, this isn't a value judgement on either generation, I'm just pointing out that boomers seem to value things, and millennial's experiences. Currently, I could not afford a house in my home town. Although that's not surprising as most of those home are ridiculous second homes. What is going to be interesting is if my generation liquidates their parents assets (to pay off our student loans ) when they die or take them over and use them. Maybe in 15 years we will see a crazy drop in mtn housing prices and urban millennial's sell off what they see as unnecessary assets... maybe not, maybe we do exactly as the boomers did... albeit a few decades in life later than they did. At this point my wife and I are planning on selling everything... but maybe that will change.

Two things stick out to me on Willm1313's chart. Montana is dead last in the cost ratio and behind the times when it comes to reporting.

Right!!! MT and CO... also WTF Kentucky... with that few tags?

 

[bushman13]

I would like to throw another layer of complexity over the conversation. In the 2 below examples, human population does not negatively effect the herd, quite the opposite.

In Georgia, the best whitetail hunting is in Fulton county, the county where 4 million people live. It's the best because Fulton has always been bow only.

In Colorado, my home unit 39, is shining example of deer and elk thriving despite the human population. It's good because private does a better job than public of game management.

IMO managing the units for different population and age structure, is just people creating their own jobs. Why not incorporate responsible tag allocation state wide and be done with it? These animals are much more resilient and adaptable than we think.

 

[The Hedgehog]

I'd be shocked if average opportunity were the same or greater at any given point in my lifetime for most big game, relative to now.

Things change, some for better some for worse. You can bet I'll be making hay while the sun shines and having adventures of a lifetime every year, rifle in hand or not. Interesting question though.

In 10-20 years we'll be looking at today as the good old days and that is what's really sad.

I still like the "shitshow" town I live in, even with all the influx of folks. It's been a great place to raise kids, and scratch by.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

In Colorado, my home unit 39, is shining example of deer and elk thriving despite the human population. It's good because private does a better job than public of game management.

That's an interesting one... yes there are lots of elk and deer, but are their more or less than their would be without all the development? Also I don't think "private does a better job of game management" rather, the wealthy burbs of Denver are overwhelmingly anti-hunting and/or hunting isn't practical in 1 acre lot neighborhoods and the animals have a sanctuary. Every couple of years there is a huge brewhaha about someone who legally kills an elk with a rifle up there and all the hippy neighbors freak out.

I think a good counter example are units 35/36/44/45, there unlike 39 we have baseline data on what the herd looks like pre-development. That herd was one of the most robust in the state, in the last 15 years it has been devastated and continues to dwindle. CPAW believes this is directly caused by human activity in winter range. Much like conifer if you live in Eagle/Avon/Vail you might think the herds are kicking butt because you have animals in your yard all the time, but in reality those animals represent a fraction of what their once was. I postulate, that 39 is an example of sliding baseline syndrome, which will continue to be an issue throughout the west. If we aren't careful herds now might be at their peak and as habitat is lost successive generations won't notice, as the dwindling herd size they grew up with is the normal.

Same thing goes for snow pack, all those that came into CO in this last 5 year wave were freaking out about this winters snow, in reality this year wasn't even our 10 year high and wasn't particularly outstanding if you compare it to winters of the past 30 years. It was just the first post drought winter, everyone had moved to CO in a drought and thought those temps/ and snows were "normal", that was their baseline.

Having never lived or hunted in GA I would be way out of my element to comment on the state of their herds.

 

[Deleted member 18333]

Not all doom and gloom, some glimmers of optimism. In the last 35 years Wyo's the elk population has increased roughly 70%. Resident elk hunters have decreased by 11% and NR elk hunters have increased by 122%. All while the States population has increased by 21%.

 

[MTGomer]

As you all are thinking about this topic, I would suggest you do or maybe shouldn’t watch the Ted Kaczynski mini series on Netflix....

Obviously all sane people will agree that the man went about expressing himself the wrong way, but you’ll find yourself agreeing, more than disagreeing with his perspective of the world as it relates to ‘progress’.

 

[The Hedgehog]

As you all are thinking about this topic, I would suggest you do or maybe shouldn’t watch the Ted Kaczynski mini series on Netflix.... Obviously all sane people will agree that the man went about expressing himself the wrong way, but you’ll find yourself agreeing, more than disagreeing with his perspective of the world as it relates to ‘progress’.

The "information age" has not helped the average DIY public land hunter.

We in Montana can always pray for more winters like the last few. When that doesn't work we are going to have to start to look at reducing opportunity or dialing back technology.

In my opinion the state of MT has enough private land to totally justify continuing to sell far more licenses than there are animals on public land. I don't see the plan to sell "opportunities" to change much any time soon.