Population Growth and Hunting in Rocky Mountain States

[VikingsGuy]

That's a big can of worms, but suffice it to say that you're right, but that the nature of the world today is that world population may be a better marker than the population of individual countries. As you said, "without immigration..." And you can't stop immigration completely. Nor do you stop the transfer of resources in a globalized world and resource consumption is just as important as the actual number of people. In terms of population, resource consumption and the economy, we need to slow this puppy down and start figuring out a way that we can live without growth.
Carrying capacity is a loaded term. No doubt we could have twice the number of people in this country and get them all fed and housed. But could we do that and still have our wild places? Could we do that and still have grizzly bears? Wolverines? Salmon?

I want us to receive total conciousness before we reach our death bed...

I gave a thumbs up, but that seemed insufficient for having worked in the caddyshack line - so you also get a +1.

 

[Dougfirtree]

I gave a thumbs up, but that seemed insufficient for having worked in the caddyshack line - so you also get a +1.

To pull this thread back to it's origins, I think I watched Caddyshack about 147 times in Montana...

 

[Deleted member 28227]

The highest percentage of any adult age group living in poverty is 65+. Just as all the other wealth statistics, there is a huge skew to the top 1-5% that hides this unfortunate truth.

As for estate tax, this is my favorite tax (not kidding). Why does Bill Gate's great great grand kid never have to work a day in his/her life? But, I think $500k is too low, but I would vote today for a 99% tax on amounts over $5M. Enjoy the fruits of your labor. Give your kids the finest education and a debt free start on life, but don't create a quasi-landed gentry class in America - only state lotteries should be able to do that . (the 2000s do have a lot of similarities with the gilded age problems)

As for the cow analogy - which is streched but I will try to honor - it's not just the farm couple. It is their two kids. Plus their two kid's spouses, plus the resulting 2 grandkids per couple, plus the old couple down the street that doesn't have a cow, plus to old couple in the next county that had cows but sold them all and lost the proceeds trying to start an artichoke farm (actually a real thing in ND in the 70's), plus the old couple across the country that doesn't even know what a cow smells like. All need support from that farm's cows - so they better get busy.

As for soc. sec, the big lie that it is a saving account needs to be finally reconned with. It is flat out a $$ transfer from current workers to current retirees. And that is fine. What is not fine is the lie that somewhere in a bank there is an account with wllm11313 on it just waiting to give you back all the funds you contributed. Time to admit it is a social welfare program and as such should be means tested. Just think of the $8/hr fast food worker having funds withheld so that Warren Buffet gets his monthly check -- only in America. But you think corner crossing and non-resident sheep tags are 3rd rail issues just try to take on this bizarre historical problem - thank you FDR for lying to us about what the program is and how it worked - it now prevents us from actually making it work with some fairness and equity.

Direct tuition payments are exempt, so you can already pay your kids and grandkids from Andover -> Harvard Medical without dealing with estate tax issues. I'd be fine with a graduated tax starting at $1 but I figured might as well let folks keep dads grouse camp.

You, SMH, poking holes in my overly simplistic assumptions

 

[Panda Bear]

In our case the two things that work to keep our population growth in check is climate and infrastructure .

Montana is approx 150,000 sq miles in size, The smallest of the three Territories is Yukon, which is approx 200,000 sq miles. We currently have a population of 40,000, which is estimated to increase to 50000 by 2041. ( the other two territories are larger, but with the same number of people and population projections ) "Dempster Highway" is the only highway and it has one gas station between the start and finish which is 764 km.

I noticed this thread was started in 2019.

This is not good news, but I read today that supposedly Covid will reduce the number of people living in the United States for the next two decades, directly and indirectly. It went on to explain itself ( the report ) but excluding the obvious "direct" ( death ) effect on the populace I did not fully understand or should say agree with their reasoning about the indirect effect.

Hunting is more complicated I would imagine, as land to hunt and animals to hunt will all decrease as population increases ( IMHO ) --plus the constant drum beat of the animal rights and gun ban groups and individuals . And yet, both gun ownership and hunting license applications are at an all time high. I guess this is also good and bad news. More folks supporting ownership of firearms and hunting---BUT, more hunters in the field on less huntable land

Speaking of energy, home building, minerals. More people, more of aforementioned will be needed to house, feed and warm them. But it has been those activities that have decreased our Caribou herds--not the wolfs. My point is I dont feel regulated hunting will be the culprit that brings our herds down. IMHO it will be the mining, logging, and road building like that stupid Dempster Highway.

I know that Randy started this thread asking for your opinions about population growth in the rocky mountain states. So, please excuse the intrusion and thank you for letting me add my voice to this thread. It is something we talk about here as well

 

[JLS]

I think I watched Caddyshack about 147 times in Montana...

With an outfitter?

 

[VikingsGuy]

With an outfitter?

The outfitter had a guaranteed draw for the one DVD copy in the Billings blockbuster

 

[Hydrophilic]

How will the population growth be managed? High density living or further rural development?

The thing to keep an eye on is migration corridors and wintering habitat, especially for mule deer.

Anybody catch this eastman's video? I think we have a problem in this country - We want our mule deer and we want our unfettered development too.

UNBELIEVABLE wildlife MIGRATION! - The story of Wyoming’s Mule Deer Migration - Eastmans' Official Blog | Mule Deer, Antelope, Elk Hunting and Bowhunting Magazine | Eastmans' Hunting Journals

USGS migration corridor mapping

https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2020/5101/sir20205101.pdf

 

[1_pointer]

How will the population growth be managed? High density living or further rural development?

It will be both...

 

[Jape]

It will be both...

Agreed. I see a movement in Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Wyoming towards rural living. Many are being drawn away from the trappings of the cities to a more simple and sustainable life. However, at the same time I see continued growth in more populated areas. Along the Wasatch Front by SLC, home values have gone up 100% in just 10 years, and primarily because there aren't enough homes for those who want them.

 

[BuzzH]

I think it may be a net neutral deal...lots of kids these days aren't too big into the idea of living in BFE Montana, Wyoming, etc. and prefer what bigger cities have to offer.

Even if some people do make the move from a large city, they will likely not be moving to Montana cities like Winifred, Malta, Harlowton, more likely Missoula, Bozeman or Kalispell. Same with Wyoming, folks that want to move here probably aren't going to move to Hannah, Baggs, or Lusk but Cheyenne, Casper, or Sheridan possibly.

I think there's a big difference between rural in the mid-west and rural in ID, MT, WY, NM, AZ etc. and where people choose to live in each.

 

[Jape]

I think it may be a net neutral deal...lots of kids these days aren't too big into the idea of living in BFE Montana, Wyoming, etc. and prefer what bigger cities have to offer.

Even if some people do make the move from a large city, they will likely not be moving to Montana cities like Winifred, Malta, Harlowton, more likely Missoula, Bozeman or Kalispell. Same with Wyoming, folks that want to move here probably aren't going to move to Hannah, Baggs, or Lusk but Cheyenne, Casper, or Sheridan possibly.

I think there's a big difference between rural in the mid-west and rural in ID, MT, WY, NM, AZ etc. and where people choose to live in each.

I think you're right, especially after their first winter in these states. However, I have also seen some interesting moves by those I would never suspect. For example, a friend of my wife's grew up in SLC, attended Juilliard, and then became a professional ballerina in NYC. Last year she moved to rural Utah and started a farm with her husband with no family history in farming. Totally support their decision but definitely surprised me.

 

[TOGIE]

exactly buzz, people move to places like kentucky for rural living, not montana, wyoming, or colorado

they're moving to moving montana or colorado for proximity to rural living

it's like moving to california to be near the beach. you don't move there to live on the beach you move there to be near it. now just change "beach" to "mountains"

 

[Deleted member 16014]

Some good points I hadn't considered in that way. Living in the legitimate sticks is hard and largely will remain so. Hard on vehicles and equipment, hard to find skilled labor, hard to have kids in activities, hard to get healthcare etc. Now if it's your second home and you can pay a caretaker to hold your hand that's another situation.

 

[Nameless Range]

Reread this this morning. Kind of incredible that these precovid concerns have actually accelerated.

Due to cabin fever and cathartic need, I took the day off work today to go hiking. Just gotta load my kids on the bus.

I feel tripolar about this issue anymore, and waffle between a strong desire to run from it (to where?), to fight it, to just be grateful for the charmed life I have, and to cling to what's left for as long as I can knowing full well its death is imminent. The county I live in has the highest median household income in the state, maybe the second now. It's off the rails. Used to be a county of sleepy bedroom communities and a few mining/ranching towns. Today I hike up a mountain near my house that for my entire life was a mix of public land and land owned by mining outfits in the northeastern US, that were never here, and never cared, and their land have always been treated as defacto public land. Now there are sales pending on hundreds of acres, thousands disjointed, destined to be cut up for people who have the dough to pull power a half mile up a gulch that has none. Probably the last time I'll hike it.

We've gotta push for strong county growth plans, for conservation easements, for keeping working ag lands as such. Even outside of private lands, we have got to intelligently plan the use of public lands, and we have to fight in perpetuity those who would legislate and manage the public trust of wildlife poorly or exploit it. We have to accept the fact that we will hunt less. And we have to do all this while simultaneously saying goodbye.

These are all things that are on my mind lately when it comes to population growth and the rocky mountain west.

 

[WyoDoug]

Reread this this morning. Kind of incredible that these precovid concerns have actually accelerated.

Due to cabin fever and cathartic need, I took the day off work today to go hiking. Just gotta load my kids on the bus.

I feel tripolar about this issue anymore, and waffle between a strong desire to run from it (to where?), to fight it, to just be grateful for the charmed life I have, and to cling to what's left for as long as I can knowing full well it's death is imminent. The county I live in has the highest median household income in the state, maybe the second now. It's off the rails. Used to be a county of sleepy bedroom communities and a few mining/ranching towns. Today I hike up a mountain near my house that for my entire life was a mix of public land and land owned by mining outfits in the northeastern US, that were never here, and never cared, and their land have always been treated as defacto public land. Now there are sales pending on hundreds of acres, thousands disjointed, destined to be cut up for people who have the dough to pull power a half mile up a gulch that has none. Probably the last time I'll hike it.

We've gotta push for strong county growth plans, for conservation easements, for keeping working ag lands as such. Even outside of private lands, we have got to intelligently plan the use of public lands, and we have to fight in perpetuity those who would legislate and manage the public trust of wildlife poorly or exploit it. We have to accept the fact that we will hunt less. And we have to do all this while simultaneously saying goodbye.

These are all things that are on my mind lately when it comes to population growth and the rocky mountain west.

I fully agree with you. When I moved to Cheyenne, the land between Fort Collins and Cheyenne was mostly open field. Now Wellington is approaching the highway and there are several developments in Cheyenne starting to creep south taking up fields where people used to hunt. It will not be long and I-25 from Denver proper and Cheyenne will be all residential, commercial and industrial development. I will miss seeing antelope on my trips to visit family if that happens in my lifetime which is entirely possible.

 

[Hydrophilic]

This may be of interest to some. Perspective from a local politician who was elected to slow growth but realized it was impossible.
Bend, OR

Bend's Growth Rate: Scary or Sustainable?

Experts weigh in on how much is too much, too little, and just right

www.bendsource.com

Some Bend residents protesting growth

Bend went from boom in the early 2000s to bust during the Great Recession. But with the economy in an uptick again, some Bend residents aren’t happy about the growth

www.bendbulletin.com

We want our deer and our development too

https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/sciencef/scifi140.pdf

 

[hank4elk]

I live in what was the largest,least populated county in NM. 7500 sq mi. Maybe 2850 population in 2009. Yeah I moved here to retire from elsewhere. Been coming here since before most here were born and I earned my place.
Census said 3200 in 2010. I know it dropped after and started picking up about 2 years ago.

2020 says 3555 and now every old defunkt subdivision is being bought up by folks who will not make it here,in reality.
Every large ranch has huge places being built with saddles hanging on the $100k entrance gates it seems. Escalades driving down the road 60mph instead of the old pu doing 30,blowing dust.

That was before last year & the boom. Way more now. Not one new business has opened. Tons of new faces. No new jobs. The big places hire a handfull of locals & pay nothing or bring in outside help & they make out good.
I did know this could happen here. It happened where I came from. I feel lucky to have my little ranch with a view over lots of land with no roofs. Am I the problem? I got mine,for now. And most of the hoard will leave like after the homestead boom in 1920s and when the drought hit a few years back.

I never had kids personally as a choice. Came from a big one and there were too many people anyway growing up. I raised a few regardless.

Don't know where I'm going with this. But after a trip to Pie Town day before yesterday for the 1st time in months and seeing new roads into the old homesteads and every parcel has a for sale sign or a new place on it it became apparent ,if it was happening here it must be worse elsewhere.
I guess everyone who moved here is retired & self-sufficient too. Most likely,not. I just hope they stay away from me. For now.

 

[hank4elk]

The word is out on NM too and the number of hunters in NM has grown. Same as everywhere.

I used to see a few does here & there in my area, but not many deer in general in what once was the best deer country in the country. IMHO & a few record books.
I bet I did not see 24 deer in this huge unit I live in last year. Deer have dissappeared.
Tons of elk. Antelope had made a comeback,but who knows.
Pretty sure it has to do with the growth in humans here. It's not wolves which has grown in population too.

 

[Stone_Ice_1]

I have seen a huge increase of people either coming back to Montana lately or coming here to get away from the cities and that atmosphere. I think this trend of moving to the rural Rocky Mountain States is going to boom with more and more people able to work from home now. People are moving here in droves because they can work for a company across the nation for a better salary and yet live in Montana and enjoy its benefits. Housing has gone through the roof here lately and I know a builder that can't keep up with the demand because of the number of people moving here. Just on my drive to work from my house, which is roughly 10 miles, 10 years ago when I moved out to where I currently am there used to be a lot more fields that are now huge subdivisions and full of new houses.

 

[MThuntr]