poll for pa mt mn

[TLC]

heres a little help for ya pa mt mn. hope the questions are right.

 

[pa mt man]

Thanks TLC. That's close enough.

 

[Moosie]

Put me down for Hloy Chit It has to be what I'm in becasue you spelled it like I would have

SEE HOW BAD IS IT?? for my situation

 

[1_pointer]

My job, so far, has been relatively unaffected. One of my wife's business (medical skin care clinic) is doing surprisingly well; better than I expected. The other (nursing agency), not so well, but that is due, IMO, more to the new management and time of year. Thanksgiving through Valentine's has always been a bit tougher for that one. For her, the worse case scenario is that she'd have to take a full time nursing position. Far from a terrible backup plan...

 

[schmalts]

Well, things are scary at HD these days. I should not be effected with the layoff they just announced but... That layoff was to cut back to employee numbers to represent the production numbers they are shooting for this year. That certainly does not mean that at the end of the first quarter if the dealers say they are not selling what was shipped to them that another cutback will not happen.
I am not in production but R&D, but if this economy does not start turning around I do not know what my fate will be. Out of 102 positions like mine, i am 44th in seniority.
Good news is I am a careful spender, and live a fairly frugal life. I have no debt except for my house payment. (4 years left) And with great credit, I can always refinance out again. Bad thing is I do not have a lot of cash on hand, and with applications coming up I will have a lot less
On the other hand, I think many are underestimating how much better draw odds will be this year in the draws because of this economy.
In fact, I may skip a few apps myself, like sheep and goat in pipedream states. Cannot afford to put that kind of cash up in uneasy times.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Well, things are scary at HD these days. I should not be effected with the layoff they just announced but... That layoff was to cut back to employee numbers to represent the production numbers they are shooting for this year. That certainly does not mean that at the end of the first quarter if the dealers say they are not selling what was shipped to them that another cutback will not happen. .

Our local Harley dealership closed up the doors on a 2 year old building and is gone. They ain't gonna be selling anything this year.

Nice building could be leased for dirt cheap.

 

[Moosie]

Jose, Is that the one in Caldwell ?

 

[schmalts]

I hope your not trying to sell doom and gloom for HD over a dealership closing....
HD's 2008 production numbers were not down far enough to have caused well managed dealers to fail. Let me guess, it was one of the newer, untra large fancy dealers that was probably owned and managed like half the houses in the US where some moron based his payments on the current economy instead of a realistic fluctuating one. A dealer failing in 2008 was a private owners fault, not the status of HD. Now this year can be different though, if the economy will not pick up. HD buyers will just travel farther to get a bike if they really want one. The last one i had I put on Ebay and the guy drove all the way up from Florida to get it.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Moosie,

Yes, one and the same. And, they closed down at the end of 2008. Not exactly sure of what the connection was to the one outside your front door, but it obviously means that the sales volume was not going to support anybody turning wrenches or scheduling test rides.

I hope your not trying to sell doom and gloom for HD over a dealership closing....
HD's 2008 production numbers were not down far enough to have caused well managed dealers to fail. Let me guess, it was one of the newer, untra large fancy dealers that was probably owned and managed like half the houses in the US where some moron based his payments on the current economy instead of a realistic fluctuating one. A dealer failing in 2008 was a private owners fault, not the status of HD. Now this year can be different though, if the economy will not pick up. HD buyers will just travel farther to get a bike if they really want one. The last one i had I put on Ebay and the guy drove all the way up from Florida to get it.

Yeah, I am sure you selling something on eBay means the nonsense that the CEO is putting out in his quarterly earnings report is pure hyperbole.

During the third quarter, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 9.6 percent compared to the third quarter of 2007. U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 15.5 percent for the quarter. The heavyweight motorcycle market in the U.S. decreased 3.1 percent for the same period.

Maybe they should just have you start listing all their motorcycles on eBay and you can sell the bikes for them....

From the HD 8-k filed last week....

The Company expects the planned volume reduction, restructuring and cost reduction actions to result in the elimination of approximately 1,100 jobs over 2009 and 2010, including about 800 hourly production positions and about 300 non-production, primarily salaried positions. About 70 percent of the workforce reduction is expected to occur in 2009. The Company expects that approximately 800 positions - 500 hourly production and 300 non-production - of the total 1,100 will be eliminated in 2009, with all but approximately 100 of these reductions occurring in the first half of the year.

The Company expects the volume reduction and changes to operations to result in aggregate one-time charges of approximately $110 million to $140 million over 2009 and 2010. At the low end of the range, approximately $36 million of these charges will involve one-time employee termination costs (including pension curtailment charges), approximately $22 million will involve accelerated depreciation charges to depreciate affected long-lived assets to their estimated salvage value, and approximately $52 million will involve other costs to close and consolidate facilities. The difference between the low end and high end of the range relates to uncertainty surrounding the cost and execution of these actions. Of the aggregate charges, the Company expects that approximately 75 percent will result in cash expenditures, although the timing of the expenditures will vary, and 25 percent will be non-cash. The Company expects to record between $80 and $100 million of these costs in 2009 - with $30 to $40 million in the first quarter of 2009. The Company expects that it will record the remaining restructuring costs, between $30 and $40 million, in 2010.

And from their conference calll.....

We plan to ship between 264,000 and 273,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles in 2009, which represents a 10% to 13% reduction versus last year

I am guessing taking 30,000 units out of the dealer network hurts a bit....
And kind of intersesting that management is only predicting a 10-13% decline when they just suffered a 19% decline.

In the U.S., fourth quarter 2008 retail sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 19.6% compared to the same period in 2007. Overall, the U.S. 651-plus CC motorcycle market decreased 25.5% in the fourth quarter.

And they even did worse than their competitors during the final year of the failed Dubya Adminstration.

For the full year of 2008, retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles by our U.S. dealers were down 13%, while the overall U.S. 651-plus CC motorcycle market decreased 7.0%. For the full year, Harley-Davidson lost 3.2 points of market share.

What do you think of HD Financial needing to access the government bailout TALF funds?

 

[pa mt man]

Watch out schmalts. The last guy that spouted some HD Japanese facts was drummed out of hunt talk.


Gunner said "What do you think of HD Financial needing to access the government bailout TALF funds?"


Did you see the current article in Time magazine. I only got a quick look but according to some of the graphs BOA and Citi are now worth less,or worthless, than the first bail out money we gave them. WTF:BLEEP:

So to answer your question. NO! Wait till their shares are worthless,than invest! Sell high,buy cheap. And I never had an economics lesson.

 

[schmalts]

Thanks Gummer for supporting my last post without even knowing it...... You quoted some numbers about production drops by HD last year and then projected for this year(projected for 2009 has nothing to do with the already failed dealer). Bottom line, that 2008 number was not enough to have cause a well managed HD dealer to fold. And as usual, the rest of your post has no correlation in why the dealer folded because you posted crap from this years production numbers VS last years when the dealer failed trying to add something to your stupid post.
So you think any business is well managed if it folds from say, a 10% decrease in a prior years sales?
Your crap flies right off me.

 

[schmalts]

Watch out schmalts. The last guy that spouted some HD Japanese facts was drummed out of hunt talk.


Gunner said "What do you think of HD Financial needing to access the government bailout TALF funds?"


Did you see the current article in Time magazine. I only got a quick look but according to some of the graphs BOA and Citi are now worth less,or worthless, than the first bail out money we gave them. WTF:BLEEP:

So to answer your question. NO! Wait till their shares are worthless,than invest! Sell high,buy cheap. And I never had an economics lesson.

As usual, Gummer trying to change the subject. The current state of HD has nothing to do with a dealer folding in 2008. Dealers are all privately owned and operated. If your local dealer failed, it was because it was piss poor managed and he was stretched too thin on funds. The 2008 sales numbers did not fall enough to have caused a well managed dealer to fold. Any post about 2009 numbers are irrelevant to my post, as the dealer had failed prior to that point. I shouldn't have to even type this all out but maybe there a a few reading this that are as slow as you, but I doubt it

 

[JoseCuervo]

Schmalts,

How do you know the dealer wasn't smart and cut his losses before the weak 2009?

And what do you think of the government having to bail out Harley? do you support the government having to prop up Harley with TALF funds?

 

[noharleyyet]

Schmalts, not playing devil's advocate here but didn't HD mandate substantial dealership architectural upgrades the last 5-6 years? Our local mom & pop was prudent enough to sell to a deep pockets fellow who moved in to one of the new prototypical bright & shinys last year. Between slumping sales & inflated debt service he is exsanguinating swiftly.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Schmalts, not playing devil's advocate here but didn't HD mandate substantial dealership architectural upgrades the last 5-6 years? Our local mom & pop was prudent enough to sell to a deep pockets fellow who moved in to one of the new prototypical bright & shinys last year. Between slumping sales & inflated debt service he is exsanguinating swiftly.

But Schmalts sold a bike on eBay, so that actual insight and first-hand knowledge you have is irrelevant.

We have two dealerships in the Valley here. One built a new building and just closed it down. The other one built a new building (because of what NHY was referring to, I think). It is a pretty 2 story building next to the freeway, first class, all lit up, likely an expensive piece of overhead. The two dealerships may have even been connected. One story was the second one was required to get quota from Harley. Now that it does not seem like the market is good to selling Harleys, it may not make sense to shut that down, although it was a expensive building, so it is likely a loss to someone.

And Fitch is downgrading Harley's debt, resulting in higher costs for Harley to borrow money, and even more need for the government bailout.

Fitch's actions affect $3.2 billion of debt at HDFS and $182 million of debt at HOG. Due to the existence of a support agreement and demonstrated support by the parent, HDFS' ratings are linked to those of HOG.

The placement on Rating Watch Negative reflects Fitch concerns on the following items:

--Financing and liquidity plan for HDFS in 2009. Fitch's primary funding concerns relate to the company's financing alternatives over the near term. HDFS has two facilities that expire in the next six months. The first is a $500 million ABCP conduit that expires at the end of March. Fitch expects that HDFS will attempt to extend and increase this facility. HOG and HDFS also have a $950 million 364-day credit facility that expires in July. This facility and a $950 million three-year facility are primarily used to support HDFS' commercial paper program and to fund HDFS' lending activities and operations. Fitch is concerned that renewal of the 364-day facility in July 2009 will be challenging and could result in reduced commitments and increased pricing.

--HDFS' ability to continue to support parent company sales at the typical level of approximately 53%-55% of retail volumes. Fitch will also evaluate the likelihood HOG customers can obtain economical financing through other reliable sources.

--Outlook for 2009 sales and margins at HOG's manufacturing operations and higher cash outlays related to pension and restructuring charges. Also the weak economic environment, which could lead to further restructuring actions at HOG if volumes come under additional pressure.

--Outlook for HDFS credit quality through 2009. While Fitch acknowledges the company's fairly benign loss rates to date, Fitch assumes that HDFS' underlying collateral is more discretionary in nature and would rank well below other assets in terms of priority of payment.

--Recently announced management changes at both HOG and HDFS.

HDFS is currently in compliance with all covenants which include: HDFS leverage covenant of 10:1 times (x) debt to equity and a minimum interest coverage ratio at the consolidated HOG level of 2.5:1. The revolver does not contain a material adverse change clause. In addition, HOG must maintain HDFS' fixed-charge coverage at 1.25x and minimum net worth of $40 million.

It is interesting that if you go to the local Dealer's website and look at his used inventory, it shows 102 listings of used Harleys and Buels. At an average pricce of $10k you have a $1million inventory just in used bikes.

Of those 102 there are 29 of them that are 2008's and newer (in used bikes). That almost makes me think some of those would have to be repo bikes for people to turn them in the same year they buy them.

 

[Moosie]

Thats CRAZY. I liked that store. Alothough never actually have gone in there .. It looked good from the outside !!! The other one by the freeway is Frigging HUGE !!!

I thought there was one down by Chindon as well. Down by ACHD and the Porn shop ? Or was that the one that moved out to the freeway ?

 

[Delw]

its not just harlets either, I think its all toys, Bass boat sales are way down, manufacturers are just shutting doors, Tracker aka Bass Pro shops is shutting donw most of its production line and they are the cheapest boats on the market., Stratos is shutting down/ Laying off, ranger, champion etc. in the valley the pleasure boat manufacturers and sales are non existant.
some dealers are stil selling, guys with money are buying boats on a regular basis and paying cash, its the financing is what hurt the toy business and all business's for that matter. they just wont finance. We tried to buy a machine in nov. got financed, I dont have great credit still trying to fix it from the last 5 years but its decent and about like it was 15 years ago. it used to be I could buy a machine with 1st and last months payment if I showed work, no questions asked, not its 50% down minimum before they will even talk to you. a guy I know buys new machines every year for tax purposes. he's got so much money he doesnt need credit, however this year they wanted 50% down and his shop is swamped with work. he used to pick up the phone right aorund thanks giving and say so and so I want 2or 3 machines they would drop them on his floor, this time it was a nightmare for him.and last I heard he didnt get new machines.
the machines usually ran 400k each,

 

[schmalts]

Schmalts,

How do you know the dealer wasn't smart and cut his losses before the weak 2009?

And what do you think of the government having to bail out Harley? do you support the government having to prop up Harley with TALF funds?

I don't and neither do you.



Why not? every one else has a hand out, even though they posted a PROFIT last quarter. Not going to argue the fact that they will need it this year, and who isn't?? not many US manufacturing companies..

 

[JoseCuervo]

Why not? every one else has a hand out, even though they posted a PROFIT last quarter. Not going to argue the fact that they will need it this year, and who isn't?? not many US manufacturing companies..

Why should we burden the taxpayers bailing out "US manufacturing companies" that weren't efficient? Why not have Capitalism and a Free Market? And are you really sure it is the "manufacturing company" that needed the bailout or was it the old Eaglemark Financing arm?

Eaglemark Financial Services, Inc. (Eaglemark) is the finance subsidiary of the Company. Eaglemark provides financial services programs to Harley-Davidson-Registered Trademark-and Buell-Registered Trademark- dealers and customers in the United States and Canada. Eaglemark also provides financial services programs on other leisure products including personal aircraft, marine products and recreational vehicles.

Have to get TALF funds to prop up somebody who tried to become a bank?

Glad I am not relying on somebody needing government bailout money for retirement or healthcare benefits after retirement. Could you imagine how big of a surprise is waiting for their employees??

From the Jan 23 earnings release, balance sheet disclosure:

Pension liability and postretirement
healthcare benefits

12/31/2008: 758,411
12/31/2007: 244,082

This half-billion dollar turn for the worse did not hit the income statement but will hit the "other comprehensive income" disclosure in the footnotes to the financials in the 10K.

Of course, HOG will have to contribute cash to reduce this liability over time. Just another need for cash that the company cannot generate.

 

[schmalts]

Why should we burden the taxpayers bailing out "US manufacturing companies" that weren't efficient? Why not have Capitalism and a Free Market? And are you really sure it is the "manufacturing company" that needed the bailout or was it the old Eaglemark Financing arm?

Have to get TALF funds to prop up somebody who tried to become a bank?

Glad I am not relying on somebody needing government bailout money for retirement or healthcare benefits after retirement. Could you imagine how big of a surprise is waiting for their employees??

Why do you ask so many questions?? Are you really that stupid to not know the answers to anything? Do you get off asking stupid questions? Do you think every HD employee needs that job to retire and have health care? Are you practicing your Perry Mason wanna-be lines here? Do you have a little penis causing this to happen?
Do you like to elude answering anything by asking questions? Do you ask so many questions because you know nothing and need to ask our opinions?
Were you neglected as a child? Is that why you are this way? Do you like sheep? Can I be like you? Why is it you change the subject and ask questions to do so? Why do you hide like a puss and never post your picture here? Is it because you are ashamed of who you are? Do you wonder why most of the time you are on my ignore list? Do you think it is because i really do think your stupid? Are you a flaming Liberal? Do you like my new signature line? Do you know you really come off as someone stupid rather than the smart one you think you do? Do you think bailout money is better spent preventing STD's rather than on a company that actually helps the economy move? Do you really think Your Obama's stimulus idea will work or is it too filled with pork? Am i doing a good impersonation of you?