New MT Resident Bonus Point System

[Breaks Runner]

In the long run yeah I would think this is a good thing. Your chances to draw increase exponentially by squaring your bonus points. It just sucks for my unique situation. I am a student from out of state but have gone through the requirements to gain residency in order to hunt here as a resident. I probably won't be able to stay in Montana upon graduating, so I won't be able to continue hunting as a resident and accumulating bonus points. Unfortunately I have a low number of bonus points now so the squaring doesn't help me much. If anything it hurts because all of those above me now have their name going in the hat that many more times. If I were able to continue entering the drawing every year, this would be great. Just sucks for my particular situation. Oh well... I got lucky last year in drawing a tough mule deer permit so all is well. Thanks for the input.

Sucks for you? How about me and many others, going 0 for 43 on sheep here in Montana since I was 12 years old. If they would have had squared bonus points since back in the day, my name would go in 1843 times this year. I guess I'll take 121 times.

Maybe we won't hear as many stories of the folks who drew their first year of applying. Suits me. They/we, can still hunt deer, elk, black bears, wolves, mountain lions and antelope almost annually. Build your points, put in your time and hopefully draw sometime before you're too old to hunt.

FWIW, I have three boys fast becoming of age to hunt(one this year) and they will soon be building their own points.

 

[BuzzH]

I dont know why PFUNK cant apply as a NR in Montana and keep his points?

If we have to be forced into having a point system, squaring bonus points does make sense for the very reasons that Breaks Runner stated.

 

[mdunc8]

If we have to be forced into having a point system, squaring bonus points does make sense for the very reasons that Breaks Runner stated.

Agreed.

PFUNK, it doesn't change anything to the number of years you need to "wait" to draw a tag. Only changing the number of tags would do that.

 

[PFUNK]

Sucks for you? How about me and many others, going 0 for 43 on sheep here in Montana since I was 12 years old. If they would have had squared bonus points since back in the day, my name would go in 1843 times this year. I guess I'll take 121 times.

Maybe we won't hear as many stories of the folks who drew their first year of applying. Suits me. They/we, can still hunt deer, elk, black bears, wolves, mountain lions and antelope almost annually. Build your points, put in your time and hopefully draw sometime before you're too old to hunt.

FWIW, I have three boys fast becoming of age to hunt(one this year) and they will soon be building their own points.

I didn't mean to sound like I was pitying myself or my situation, so I hope you didn't take offense to my post. I am just saying it sucks for my chances of "getting lucky" during the few years I am here. I am not applying for goat, sheep, moose, or any of those draws... just deer and elk. I agree that changing the system now sucks for you worse than it does for me. Wasn't trying to imply anything else or offend anyone. If they didn't have a cap on the number of bonus points one could accumulate you wouldn't be any worse off.

If I can convert my resident bonus points over to nonresident bonus points if and when I move away from Montana, that would be awesome. I would have no problem with that at all, and might have to call FWP and see if that is how it works.

MDunc8, what I am trying to say is that, because your chances of drawing now increase exponentially every year, you will, statistically speaking, not have to wait as long on average to draw a tag. It is meant to prevent you from going 43 years without drawing like Breaks Runner did. However, you can just about rule out ever getting lucky and drawing on your first or second application. So what it means to me, in a general sense, is that you ARE going to be unsuccessful for several years if you are just getting into the drawing pool, BUT on average, you will not wait as long to get drawn as you would have under the old system.

 

[mdunc8]

MDunc8, what I am trying to say is that, because your chances of drawing now increase exponentially every year, you will, statistically speaking, not have to wait as long on average to draw a tag. It is meant to prevent you from going 43 years without drawing like Breaks Runner did. However, you can just about rule out ever getting lucky and drawing on your first or second application. So what it means to me, in a general sense, is that you ARE going to be unsuccessful for several years if you are just getting into the drawing pool, BUT on average, you will not wait as long to get drawn as you would have under the old system.

Nope. Still wrong. Keep trying.

 

[jryoung]

Aren't bonus point for NR too?

•If you wish to participate in the Bonus Point program for Deer/Elk permits, make sure to check "YES" on the Bonus Point questions and include the $2 Bonus Point fee for residents or the $20 Bonus Point fee for nonresidents.

Can someone explain the difference between "preference" and "bonus" points to me? You can buy preference points but bonus are acccrued by buying them when you are unsucessful during a draw correct?

Would it make sense to apply for a very difficult combo tag and pay for bonus and preference points to accumulate them faster?

 

[mdunc8]

Residents and nonresidents can both accumulate bonus points. Montana uses bonus points, which means everyone has a chance to draw the tag. Those with more bonus points have a better chance of drawing though. Some states use preference points, which limits the tags to those with most points.

 

[PFUNK]

Nope. Still wrong. Keep trying.

Would you mind explaining where my reasoning is incorrect? Would be nice to hear why it is wrong as opposed to just hearing that it is wrong. What is the point of the new system then?

 

[mdunc8]

It decreases the variability around the mean. Not the mean itself. You have fewer people with little or no points drawing certain tags as well as less people with a lot points getting screwed by the newbies. In the long run it does nothing to the average waiting period for most tags. Only increasing or decreasing the number of tags will affect how many years you should expect to wait, on average, to draw a tag.

 

[PFUNK]

It decreases the variability around the mean. Not the mean itself. You have fewer people with little or no points drawing certain tags as well as less people with a lot points getting screwed by the newbies. In the long run it does nothing to the average waiting period for most tags. Only increasing or decreasing the number of tags will affect how many years you should expect to wait, on average, to draw a tag.

Ok thanks. I guess I was under the impression that if the newbies odds are worse, and the long time applicants odds are better every year, it would equate to a lower average number of years until a license is drawn (because you have less chance of getting screwed by the newbie every year).

 

[WapitiBob]

So, are the Preference points for the combo license and the Bonus points for the Special Permits?

 

[Big Fin]

In Montana, the only way to reduce the wait for sheep tags is to produce more wild sheep, something that is a political football. Last year, after public hearings, significant scoping comments, and lots of research, it was determined Lewis and Clark Caverns area was a great wild sheep area. FWP decided to reintroduce them back to that part of their native range.

Then one, yeah ONE, adjacent landowner squealed. He got the entire thing stopped. Increasing sheep numbers in Montana is purely a political endeavor. Our landscape was littered with them at one time, so it is not about habitat.

To increase your long-term odds at drawing a sheep tag, do two things - 1) Join the MT chapter of WSF, and 2) get involved in the politics of who you vote for and what you demand of them when it comes to FWP policy.

I know people hate item #2, but it is that simple. The legislature hammered FWP so hard about how they were doing sheep reintroductions, that FWP got soft. And, FWP leadership has softened to a point that they would fold up a Girl Scout cookie drive if it conflicted with a Garden Club bake sale.

Hate to always take it back to politics, but that is how it works in Montana. The commission and department are neutered by an ever mingling legislature. Until hunters demand more from their legislators, we will not be replacing the huge sheep die offs of 2009/10 any time soon.

 

[DreaminofMT6X6s]

Looking at this from a statistics point of view, and I'm not an expert by any means, but regardless of the preference points being squared the odds are going to be exactly the same aren't they? so regardless of how many points you have since everyone's points are squared and the number of successful draws remains constant how would this improve your odds? I'm curious if the FWP consults a statistician on these matters.

 

[mdunc8]

Wapiti, I have no idea how the system works for nonresidents looking to draw a limited deer or elk tag. I do know it's a crazy way of making something that should be pretty simple much more difficult.

Dreamin, it actually changes things quite a bit (relatively speaking). For those with close to max points, it nearly doubles your odds this year while it cuts the odds in half for those with few points. It doesn't do much to the folks in the middle. For tags with high turnover (my goat tag from last year), that could mean adding an extra 10-20% to max point holders. For a Breaks sheep tag, it's probably only a difference of 1%, if that.

 

[----]

http://themoderatevoice.com/57412/why-americans-are-dumb-at-math/

 

[shoots-straight]

In Montana, the only way to reduce the wait for sheep tags is to produce more wild sheep, something that is a political football. Last year, after public hearings, significant scoping comments, and lots of research, it was determined Lewis and Clark Caverns area was a great wild sheep area. FWP decided to reintroduce them back to that part of their native range.

Then one, yeah ONE, adjacent landowner squealed. He got the entire thing stopped. Increasing sheep numbers in Montana is purely a political endeavor. Our landscape was littered with them at one time, so it is not about habitat.

To increase your long-term odds at drawing a sheep tag, do two things - 1) Join the MT chapter of WSF, and 2) get involved in the politics of who you vote for and what you demand of them when it comes to FWP policy.

I know people hate item #2, but it is that simple. The legislature hammered FWP so hard about how they were doing sheep reintroductions, that FWP got soft. And, FWP leadership has softened to a point that they would fold up a Girl Scout cookie drive if it conflicted with a Garden Club bake sale.

Hate to always take it back to politics, but that is how it works in Montana. The commission and department are neutered by an ever mingling legislature. Until hunters demand more from their legislators, we will not be replacing the huge sheep die offs of 2009/10 any time soon.

Which brings back to life a post of mine: http://onyourownadventures.com/hunttalk/showthread.php?t=249711

This guy was one of the very worse.