Nevada Worth the Money

[Letthemgrow]

You can always find anomalies to point to, but statistically, it's a bad decision to start now.

Will you ever draw a Nevada desert bighorn tag or 115 elk tag if you don't apply? That's a 100% no.

I have applied for 17 years and have only drawn a deer tag in Nevada, and that was in the guide draw.
As unlucky as treedagain has been in Idaho, the reverse is true for me. Idaho has been more than good for me (I am the anomaly there!)

If you play the application game long enough, you just might hit on something great.
But I also love playing roulette at the casinos too.

 

[treedagain]

I now understand why people are critical of you.
FWIW I have drawn 3 sheep and 2 buffalo tags.

Add in these in the last 25yrs. Or so
1 great Arizona bull
1 good New Mexico bull
1 great Colorado bull
2 good Colorado bull
2 great Wyoming bull
1 good Wyoming bull
3 good Utah bull
1 great Nevada bull

All filled with good bulls.....I even managed a 300plus bull in a OTC any bull unit in Utah.

I should have another good/great Colorado bull this yr.

That's just the elk I can add deer and antelope if you want.

Not sure I care about a bunch of 0's

My 1st sheep was a 1 in 3000plus draw.

 

[treedagain]

You can always find anomalies to point to, but statistically, it's a bad decision to start now.

Will you ever draw a Nevada desert bighorn tag or 115 elk tag if you don't apply? That's a 100% no.

I have applied for 17 years and have only drawn a deer tag in Nevada, and that was in the guide draw.
As unlucky as treedagain has been in Idaho, the reverse is true for me. Idaho has been more than good for me (I am the anomaly there!)

If you play the application game long enough, you just might hit on something great.
But I also love playing roulette at the casinos too.

So your the one who kept stealing my Idaho deer tags?

 

[Bullshot]

I think the “is it worth it” threads are quickly becoming the 2020 champs! Last year it seemed to be NR base licence requirements. There’s still time, of course, but people seem to have digested that one over the past year. Maybe the NM NR quota limits can make a run. Still time for some remaining gripes on the Wyoming app deadline too.

Mathmatically, there is no reasonable bending of the rules of probability that will change the fact that no licence that takes more money than you can afford and that statistically you won’t draw in multiple lifetimes is “worth it” from a monetary sense. Unless you want “a chance”. And you can afford to lose, which you statistically almost certainly will. Then maybe it is worth it- to you. People are not gambling with their kids lives. Their college education.....maybe..

So the glass half fullers live in one world, and the sticks in the mud live in another. Seems both are pretty happy with their choices. Myself, I am in the middle, but suffering from finite resources, otherwise hell yeah I’d apply for everything everywhere. Felt like I did that last year. And for the record, no, it was NOT “worth it”

 

[Zim]

So in summary your answer is no.

 

[cfree]

I think you have to find the state, or states, you are lucky in.

Some people are lucky in every state. Everyone has that friend that draws unbelievable tags just about every year.

Some people can't draw anywhere. Everyone knows that guy that can't draw a thing and loves to complain about it.

Most of us, I believe, are lucky in 1 or 2 states, but you won't know which ones until you try. NM has been 1 of those states for me. 1st time ever applying I drew a OIL Oryx tag! Have drawn several elk, muley, barbary sheep, and antelope tags there over the years too. Not every year-but enough, and they have all been fun hunts. NV has been tough for me with only 1 antelope tag in 12 years. Obviously starting out now don't set your sights on only the best tags. The "average" units in a state like NV have the ability to produce great hunts.

 

[Bullshot]

So in summary your answer is no.

Not sure if that was a dig at my long winded musings but if so, good one! . This entire conversation, and previous ones, some of which I have started, basically boil down to how much money you can contentedly (emphasis on that part) afford to allocate to the game. It’s different for everyone. That is not a judgement, just reality. Unlike the statistics, which are the same for everyone. Arguing against stats in the long run is a fools errand. Arguing against that you “gotta be in it to win it” is also. So everyone can now go forth and find their own equilibrium.

 

[Zim]

No my comment was to treedagain confirming that no he never drew a tag with less than 1 in 10,000 odds.

 

[BuzzH]

Hey Zim,

You know what my odds were of drawing a desert sheep tag in 2012 in Arizona with 11 points?

100%...because I did.

 

[Zim]

Odds are exponentially better in Arizona even for sheep than behind thousands of squared point holders in Nevada for elk. I would not discourage anyone from applying there, even on the ground floor. In Nevada & Utah.............not so much!

 

[Letthemgrow]

So your the one who kept stealing my Idaho deer tags?

Yeah, I could apply in Idaho for the next 20 years and not draw a tag and still feel like I came out ahead.
Other states, not so much.
This is my 22nd year applying for out-of-state tags and still no sheep tag.
I will keep swinging as long as I can lift the bat.

Best of luck this year to you in the draws.

 

[treedagain]

No my comment was to treedagain confirming that no he never drew a tag with less than 1 in 10,000 odds.

Hey Zim....confirm this...last years Sheep. Want me to research my nevada elk? Same deal. Or my other Utah sheep?

 

[Auburnpack]

I hate the point game. Would much rather hunt an OTC unit in Co or Idaho. The odds are just getting worse for draws even those states w out point systems. Saying that, I am 5-10 years in on most states w points. I have also noticed more and more people and now flocking to the OTC units. The reason I started playing the point game is because the Idaho unit I started elk hunting in always had left over OTC tags and now they sell out in less than 2 hours. The demand for hunting units w draws and OTC tags continues to grow for all species. I look at the states w points as insurance to be able to take my kids elk hunting in the future. Maybe I will never draw. Hopefully I wont have to. Hopefully I can continue to hunt a few OTC spots that I have worked so hard to find.

 

[Zim]

treed,
What's so hard about just answering the question? The answer is no you did not draw anything with 1/10,000 odds. We are talking about advice for ground floor guys, not those who bought in to the squared point deal 18 years ago! Your example has absolutely nothing to do with TODAY's REALITY. But thanks for posting a chart that a rookie can learn from. All those people on your chart would have their points squared ahead of said rookie, and you can clearly see what it does to his odds on the ground floor. Well, almost because he is literally "off the chart"! Haha. Your source stops calculating at <0.1%. But per goHunt 162-163 Rifle NR sheep the odds for a ground floor applicant is same as my elk example, <.01% = 1/10,000. And BTW all the NV sheep units are <.01%. And his odds would go down from there for years. A 1/200 chance would be a pipe dream for him under the current system.

This is the reality, and the reason you see a lot of recent investors posting on here "no it's not worth It”.

 

[Auburnpack]

^How long will it be bore elk odds get to be as bad as sheep?

 

[treedagain]

Zim, we are all in awe of you and your drawing such a wonderful tag. I will research my 2008 Nevada bull

How did your Wyoming deer hunt go?

 

[ImBillT]

I think a lot of the frustration of drawing comes from a lack of understanding of probability and statistics. People see 33% odds as meaning they can draw that tag every three years. Well, that would be the average frequency, but not nearly a regular expectation. One per three (1/3) is very different from once every three. In fact, if you applied for a 33% odds hunt every year for ten years there’s almost a 2% you would never draw it. Or, if 1000 people put in for a 33% hunt ten years in a row, 20 of them would not have drawn, and about 20 of them would have drawn all ten years. About 500 of them would have drawn 7 times.


What does that mean for places like NV where 1% odds might be the norm for the majority of the years you apply? Well, for a 1% odds hunt, over 70 consecutive years, there’s about a 49% chance that you will not have drawn. If you apply for a 1% hunt for 100 years, or 100 1% hunts, you have about a 63% chance of drawing.

Point systems though, are supposed to allow your odds to improve each year, and that’s what most of them do. In NV however they do not. Because of point squaring, the guy in front of will ALWAYS get soo many more chances than you with each increasing year that your odds actually get WORSE! And it’s impossible to catch up to the squaring problem except via attrition. The attrition will never be enough to fix the problem. The NV system will EVENTUALLY implode. It may be decades from now, and hunting may not even be legal by then, but in an imaginary world where nothing else changed, the squares points system would eventually have to be changed.

If you do not already have within 4-5 points of max, buying points in NV will never increase your draw odds. It will only decrease the rate at which your draw odds get worse. If you’re near the top, you will gain ground because enough people will draw, give up or die that you may be able to benefit.

 

[Zim]

Tree,
The OP does not care about your elk from 12 years ago, nor mine from 13 years ago. Much less my 2018 deer from a different state. His question was about buying into Nevada in 2020.

 

[treedagain]

If he does not care....why did you have to bring it up and make a big deal about it?

Apparently you care about....well....I don't know what? Do you still want me to research my draw odds to show that someone other than yourself is capable of drawing a Nevada tag?

I can't imagine you putting in for all those years for only 1 tag? At what point do you stop and use your money in a more realistic manner?

I personally stopped putting in for Idaho when I stopped lion hunting and could not justify the cost in a state that never showed me any love..... I just kept trucking along drawing GREAT tags in Nevada, Colorado, Arizona and Wyoming that money was well spent.

My addition to the conversation was that it is possible to draw tags in Nevada on a regular basis. To give hope to those putting in and that when I am on my waiting period there is another tag available

 

[BuzzH]

If he does not care....why did you have to bring it up and make a big deal about it?

Apparently you care about....well....I don't know what? Do you still want me to research my draw odds to show that someone other than yourself is capable of drawing a Nevada tag?

I can't imagine you putting in for all those years for only 1 tag? At what point do you stop and use your money in a more realistic manner?

I personally stopped putting in for Idaho when I stopped lion hunting and could not justify the cost in a state that never showed me any love..... I just kept trucking along drawing GREAT tags in Nevada, Colorado, Arizona and Wyoming that money was well spent.

My addition to the conversation was that it is possible to draw tags in Nevada on a regular basis. To give hope to those putting in and that when I am on my waiting period there is another tag available

Treedagain,

There's no use...I've said the same things to Zim and he's just not going to believe you...no matter how many tags you've drawn. No matter how many people beat horrific odds and draw tags. If I worried about odds and return on investment and had the kind of entitlement attitude as Zim, I wouldn't even bother hunting. With Zim, its 100% about Zim benefiting himself...no other considerations. He's entitled and owed tags for applying. Half the time, he's so worried about it, he draws tags looking for a "way out of states ripping me off" and then has a sub par tag. Usually results in a post about how bad the hunt was that he waited X number of years to draw. Or how point creep screwed him again. It really doesn't sound like any part of his hunts are fun...which at that point (pun there), why hunt at all? I don't get it.

The plus side to a bonus point state, even one with a squared point system, it only takes ONE number to be the right number drawn. I question how much "better" of a chance a guy with 12 points has (144 random numbers) VS. someone with 5 (25 random numbers). The guy with 25 random numbers still has a pretty good chance at getting a lower/better number than the guy with 144 random numbers.

The only statistics that really matter are: You don't put in, your odds, are 100% for sure...ZERO. You apply, your chances are 100% better than not applying at all.

If you're in a situation that you want to hunt desert sheep, there is NO better option than putting in for Nevada as they issue more DS tags than any other state.

I've been applying for NV for a long time, still haven not drawn any tags there, but its self induced as I only apply for the best of the best (with the exception of sheep). Plus, I never mind supporting a State that manages with quality in mind over quantity. Its nice to know that if I were to draw, I would have a good hunt there...and management like that costs money. I'm happy to contribute.