Negative Point Creep

[BrentD]

Has anyone here ever seen a Wyoming Elk unit that has experienced significant, negative point creep? That is the threshold for drawing requiring at least 1 point less than the previous year?

I'm looking for some dim reason to be optimistic. Some shooting star of possibility that I could actually get lucky for once.

Is there reason for hope, or should I start looking for a high bridge now?

 

[madtom]

 

[LCH]

Better hope for the random draw..

@madtom I laughed out loud at that..

 

[Dsnow9]

If there is (not likely), it’s usually for a reason, and not a good one.

 

[NEWHunter]

Point slump? I wish.

 

[rustednuts]

I do wonder what is going to happen to the point systems once all the baby boomers are out of the hunting scene, could be a big change in 10 years

 

[BrentD]

I do wonder what is going to happen to the point systems once all the baby boomers are out of the hunting scene, could be a big change in 10 years

Indeed, in 10 yrs I'll be dead and out of the points game myself, so that won't help me.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

problably a typo error.

 

[Dougfirtree]

Get a type 4 tag for the unit you want. Then spend some time hunting bulls with a camera and have a great cow hunt! (Not very helpful, but maybe realistic)...

 

[madtom]

I wonder if the Special draw will have less creep than normal this year. Five months is a long time for folks to let go of $1200.

 

[BuzzH]

I wonder if the Special draw will have less creep than normal this year. Five months is a long time to for folks to let go of $1200.

Doubtful...folks willing to spend 1200 for an elk tag are probably serious about hunting elk and money isn't a concern...drawing a tag is the concern.

I think there could be less people in the regular draw, lots of tire kickers put in for Wyoming because it was the first draw of the year. Turn around on the money was quick and they threw in hoping to snag a random tag. Those people will probably just buy a point now rather than put in and have their money held.

Who knows, there could be no change or even an increase in applicants...people are funny.

 

[madtom]

Doubtful...folks willing to spend 1200 for an elk tag are probably serious about hunting elk and money isn't a concern...drawing a tag is the concern.

I think there could be less people in the regular draw, lots of tire kickers put in as Wyoming because it was the first draw of the year. Turn around on the money was quick and they threw in hopping to snag a random tag. Those people will probably just buy a point now rather than put in and have their money held.

Who knows, there could be no change or even an increase in applicants...people are funny.

That’s a good theory too. Would be nice if it helped weed out the tire kickers. I would think we’ll see a shift of some sort, but hard saying what.

 

[LCH]

Folks hoped for better odds in NM last year, when the application cost went up. I believe the # of applicants was at an all time high.

I'm hoping for some better or at least stagnant odds, but who knows..

 

[Duck-Slayer]

My strategy for WY is build points till I’m ready to go, got 9 antelope, 2 elk, 3 deer... starting next year I’ll be burning some points. Maybe this year, we will see,
Matt

 

[huntin24/7]

That sounds like a pipe dream.

 

[jabber]

I think there could be less people in the regular draw, lots of tire kickers put in for Wyoming because it was the first draw of the year. Turn around on the money was quick and they threw in hoping to snag a random tag. Those people will probably just buy a point now rather than put in and have their money held.

That is what I was doing with my son, just putting him in for a long shot random. Won't be doing that this year, just wait and get a point later, he is one behind max and we have a long term plan for his points.

I suspect the point creep will not change. I suspect the random draws may end up with a little better odds.

 

[ida homer]

Doubtful...folks willing to spend 1200 for an elk tag are probably serious about hunting elk and money isn't a concern...drawing a tag is the concern.

Agreed, what's a couple bucks in interest on a $1200 tag, pot committed. Or people will just use a debit card.

Possibly slightly better odds in the regular, but everyone may be thinking the same thing. So after it all shakes out, honestly,
I suspect little to no change with either pool.

I don't study the units or odds religiously, but the only negative point creep I've seen are the outfitted/wilderness units.
They flip flop fairly often.

 

[BrentD]

Last year, the unit we were looking at took a 3 pt leap. There is no way we will ever catch up if that continues of course. I can only hope that the point threshold comes back a bit after that huge move last year.

 

[ida homer]

Last year, the unit we were looking at took a 3 pt leap.

Same thing happened with the lope unit we applied for. Honestly thought we were overqualified and sand bagging. We had 0% odds using points

 

[ImBillT]

Doubtful...folks willing to spend 1200 for an elk tag are probably serious about hunting elk and money isn't a concern...drawing a tag is the concern.

I think there could be less people in the regular draw, lots of tire kickers put in for Wyoming because it was the first draw of the year. Turn around on the money was quick and they threw in hoping to snag a random tag. Those people will probably just buy a point now rather than put in and have their money held.

Who knows, there could be no change or even an increase in applicants...people are funny.

I have a budget that prevents me from applying in all states. I was considering more than a point in WY this year, but holding my money for that long means I’ll have to give up on NM or stay out of WY. Just a point for me again. Maybe I’m the only person here with a budget, but I would guess that there will be fewer people applying in WY this year. It may not be enough to matter, and definitely not in the high point units. If there aren’t fewer people this year, it would have been even higher without the change.

Of course, the more people like me that publicly post that they won’t be in the draw in WY this year, the more new people will think this is the year to enter the fray.