MT Deer only draw odds

[mconway951]

Hey guys i would love to come to SE MT to hunt deer this year and would love to try for elk but i dont have the time to do a long trip and was thinking a short 4 or 5 day hunt in SE MT for deer would be a good hunt. I know with the raise in price the draw odds must have went up but i cant find them anywhere online anybody know what the draw odds for NR deer only Lic are.

 

[npaden]

In the past I've just emailed FWP and they sent the odds to me.

If I remember correctly I seem to remember they were somewhere around 75% or so last year for deer only but don't count on that!

I'll see if I can find something.

 

[GFHunter]

MT Non-resident deer is about a 15% draw success.

 

[npaden]

MT Non-resident deer is about a 15% draw success.

Sorry, but I don't think you're right on that. Even before the price hike it wasn't that bad. Since the price hike I know the odds were better than 50%. I guess I'll have to email FWP and get the real number to settle it.

 

[mixedbag]

I'd like to know also.A nov deer hunt in SE Montana is definitely a fun hunt.I may put in for deer only if odds are good

 

[the nikster]

My group of 4 guys have put in for the nonresident draw in 4 of the last 6 years and we were drawn EVERY time.

 

[257 Wby Mag]

Several folks around town here drew without any points last year, so I'd think they'd be a hellava lot better than 15%..

 

[huntRme]

Before the price increase I heard the chances were one in eight, so I always put in for the combo which was a little less than 50% with no points. After the price increase I think everybody got a tag. Don't know how it affected deer.

 

[1_pointer]

My group of 4 guys have put in for the nonresident draw in 4 of the last 6 years and we were drawn EVERY time.

I put in for 5 years and never got drawn. That said, I think I'm an anomaly...

 

[pseshooter300]

15% I would think it would be a little higher how much was the increase in $$$

 

[GFHunter]

Before the price increase I heard the chances were one in eight, so I always put in for the combo which was a little less than 50% with no points. After the price increase I think everybody got a tag. Don't know how it affected deer.

You are exactly right.

 

[the nikster]

I put in for 5 years and never got drawn. That said, I think I'm an anomaly...

don't you know anybody?

We have been fortunate!

 

[npaden]

The last statistics I have were from 2005 and 2006.

2005

Big Game Combo - 16,121 people applied for 10,482 license = 65.0%
Deer Combination - 11,376 people applied for 2,300 license = 20.2%

2006

Big Game Combo - 17,731 people applied for 10,519 license = 59.3%
Deer Combination - 11,924 people applied for 2,300 license = 19.3%

I sent in an email asking for last years numbers.

 

[IdahoBugler]

Odds were not that good before the price hike. I have 4 points and still didn't draw. I didn't want to pay the high price last year for just a deer tag so I didn't apply. Now I have to decide if it's worth the price or just waste the points.

 

[Backcountryhunter]

I think the Huntin Fool said the odds were around 80%. They definately increased significantly with the price hike and taking away the outfitter tags. SE MT in November is a BLAST!

 

[mconway951]

I am excited to here if they will email the draw odds out. So just wondering i have hunted in SD just on the other side of the border and i am guessing by that...that the odds of seeing an elk are slim to non in that area on public land correct

 

[mixedbag]

Weren't there left over deer tags last year after the returns came back????I may be looking for one of these tags if I don't draw my wy. unit

 

[npaden]

There were leftover Deer/Elk combo tags for $912, but no leftover Deer combo tags for $522 or something like that.

No reply on my email to FWP yet.

 

[npaden]

Big thank you to FWP for getting me these numbers. They said they had to do a little research and that's why it took them so long to reply. Still took them less than a 1.5 working days to reply so that's pretty good I think.

Looks like I was pretty close.

Last year on the old system was 2010.

2010

Big Game Combo - 19,323 people applied for 11,705 licenses = 60.6%
Deer Combination - 11,686 people applied for 3,928 licenses = 33.6%

2011 - Outfitter licenses moved into general pool so more licenses available and increased cost so less folks applied.

Big Game Combo - 16,065 people applied for 17,500 licenses = 100.0%

They said they had 1,059 surplus tags that sold within 3 days of going on sale. That doesn't add up to the 17,500, I think there are some elk only tags that mess the numbers up.

Deer Combination - 7,803 people applied for 6,589 licenses = 84.4%

I thought there were only supposed to be 4,600 Deer combination licenses so I sent an email asking for clarification on that. I think that includes landowner licenses or something.

Those numbers show a drop in applications of 3,258 for the Deer/Elk combo license and 3,883 for the Deer combo license and that is with the outfitter tags going in the general draw so really the average joe dropped off even more than that.

End result is that there are pretty good odds on drawing a tag anyway.

 

[npaden]

Looks like the application numbers in 2010 were pretty close to being in line with the last years I had for 2005 and 2006. Elk was up some, but deer was pretty close. The awarded licenses for 2010 were almost double what the 2,300 from 2005 and 2006 so that's why the odds were up so much, not sure if that has landowner tags in there too or what.