DJ1
Active member
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2020
- Messages
- 107
WyoDoug- Pope &Young has a drawing May 14th and first prize is a moose hunt in Alberta (I think). Well worth $20 to have a chance.
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or--Maine. Huge bulls in Maine and the cost is similar to Newfoundland, without the covid travel regulations ( either/or--approx 5000 )Consider saving up (bypassing those bonus point fees and licenses will help) and go hunt in Newfoundland
and if this works out for you then please come to the Yukon territory, Canada and choose between a fly into the interior and hunt them via horseback--or fly on to a river and hunt them while floating out---Huge Animals but so is the cost at approx 25000I suggest showering, putting on your best underwear, stuff about $500 into your wallet and head to Vegas! If you win big, you could book a hunt in Alaska.
Also, Idaho is not straight-forward with how non-resident odds are shown. You can do your own research but if hypothetically 2000 non-residents chase "up to 20 tags" of the 200 overall moose tags then the odds any non-resident gets a moose tag is 20/2000 so 1 in 100 or 1%. ID could run a draw with up to 10% of the tags allowed for non-residents and not a single tag go to a non-resident. There are no tags waiting in a specific non-resident tag bucket.If you’re seeing good ID odds it probably means the moose hunting is poor. I’ve lived in some of the better Idaho moose units and the odds stink in those areas
LopeHunter, great explanation! It drives me crazy when guys say there is a 20% for me (a non resident) to draw a moose tag in particular unit in ID. I simply say that ID doesn’t award tags for units, it’s when you are drawn and what unit you have selected on your application and if your unit is already full you get nothing.Also, Idaho is not straight-forward with how non-resident odds are shown. You can do your own research but if hypothetically 2000 non-residents chase "up to 20 tags" of the 200 overall moose tags then the odds any non-resident gets a moose tag is 20/2000 so 1 in 100 or 1%. ID could run a draw with up to 10% of the tags allowed for non-residents and not a single tag go to a non-resident. There are no tags waiting in a specific non-resident tag bucket.
Let's say 22-2 is a hypothetical Idaho moose unit, and let's further say that last year that only 5 non-residents applied for 22-2 and 1 non-resident got a 22-2 tag so we might say 20% odds exist in 22-2 so 22-2 is looking good for the next draw draw, right? 20% odds are very good indeed. Thing is, since there is a 10% cap on non-residents by species and also a 10% cap on each sub-unit, is rather useless to think 22-2 will offer 20% draw odds this year. You have to be one of the first 20 or so non-resident application pulled to get one of the "up to" 20 bull moose tags, in this example. The odds were not 20% but rather 1% chance you would be picked while a tag was left in 22-2 and no other non-resident drawn before you had 22-2 as their choice and you also are competing against residents that listed 22-2 as their first choice. When the dust settles, you have much less than 20% odds in the upcoming draw.
If you took the same exact set of non-resident and resident applications as last year with the same choices and put them in a slightly different draw order then maybe no tags go to a non-resident in 22-2. Since are 1% overall odds in this example, you could run last year's tag draw 18 more times and still perhaps not see another 22-2 moose tag go to a non-resident much less to you if you apply for 22-2.
What can be determined from the fuzzy odds are if the draw rate for non-residents is 1% but a particular subunit typically gets fewer non-resident applications then your odds are relatively better by picking a historically less popular subunit but still are facing 1% odds overall and applicant behavior this year may diverge from last year. There was a time when 10% of the non-resident sheep applications applied for a single sub-unit so picking any other unit improved your relative odds in the sheep draw but the overall sheep odds are certainly less than 1% for you each year no matter what sub-unit you select.
Statistics are math and some folks do not understand math. Paycheck advance shops are good at math but most of their customers are not. Idaho is an "If X" is true (the 10% cap is not met yet) then still need "If Y" to be true (there is a tag left in your unit of choice) and "If Z" is true (less than 10% of the tags in your choice have gone to a non-resident) to get a tag.
Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona give you multiple bites at drawing a tag if your application is drawn such as when I draw my 2nd choice though was an applicant for 3 other choices of which the 1st was out of tags and maybe the 3rd and 4th were out of tags as well but since I drew the 2nd choice the tags left in other choices is no longer a factor for me but I may show up in the total applicants in all 4 of my choices. Monte Carlo is a way to simulate the draw results by repeating the draw over and over and over to get the relative odds per unit. This is why GoHunt odds diverge from official NV odds. If you are still reading and awake then you likely are wealthy as there is money to be made when reality diverges from "20% odds in 22-2" fallacies.
tough to draw a tag in Maineor--Maine. Huge bulls in Maine and the cost is similar to Newfoundland, without the covid travel regulations ( either/or--approx 5000 )
If you apply for Idaho moose, make 100% sure you understand this issue. Idaho GFD will never fix this issue or educate about it as their revenue depends on Non-residents not understanding this issue.Also, Idaho is not straight-forward with how non-resident odds are shown. You can do your own research but if hypothetically 2000 non-residents chase "up to 20 tags" of the 200 overall moose tags then the odds any non-resident gets a moose tag is 20/2000 so 1 in 100 or 1%. ID could run a draw with up to 10% of the tags allowed for non-residents and not a single tag go to a non-resident. There are no tags waiting in a specific non-resident tag bucket.
When I left Idaho in 1993 to move to Alaska, I bought a $200 lifetime resident hunting license.If you apply for Idaho moose, make 100% sure you understand this issue. Idaho GFD will never fix this issue or educate about it as their revenue depends on Non-residents not understanding this issue.
Funny you should mention Maine’s odds. I somehow got on a hunting consultant’s mailing list a few years ago and I get emails from the company telling about different hunts that are available. I haven’t unsubscribed because I periodically point out to my wife that the hunt I am doing on my own for $xx would cost me $xxxxx if I went with an outfitter. In yesterday’s email, I learned the following:tough to draw a tag in Maine
“A limited number of tags were recently approved by the Maine Legislature and are only available for select lodges. These were offered for the first time ever in 2019. Tags are available in Maine's most productive moose zones. Book for 2022 today, or get on our waiting list for 2023 or 2024. CURRENTLY TWO TAGS FOR 2022 ARE AVAILABLE! You can avoid the draws- but they cost. Currently for 2022 they have 2 tags available at $13,500 for the tag plus $12,000 for the guided hunt, plus tax. CALL US, THESE WILL GO FAST!!”
Fowl Hunter some things are incorrect with your statement also.LopeHunter - Think your Idaho NR moose stats are wrong.
542 Bull moose tags - 10% go to NR - 54
About 1000 NR put in. 5% odds
Cost - $185 for a non refund hunting license.
I would buy an Idaho deer tag every year and hunt and put in for moose draws.
Can’t find the link?WyoDoug- Pope &Young has a drawing May 14th and first prize is a moose hunt in Alberta (I think). Well worth $20 to have a chance.